Abstract: Current data identifying COVID-19 risk factors lack standardized outcomes and insufficiently control for confounders. Objective To identify risk factors associated with COVID-19, severe COVID-19, and SARS-CoV-2 infection. Design, Setting, and Participants This secondary cross-protocol analysis included 4 multicenter, international, randomized, blinded, placebo-controlled, COVID-19 vaccine efficacy trials with harmonized protocols established by the COVID-19 Prevention Network. Individual-level data from participants randomized to receive placebo within each trial were combined and analyzed. Enrollment began July 2020 and the last data cutoff was in July 2021. Participants included adults in stable health, at risk for SARS-CoV-2, and assigned to the placebo group within each vaccine trial. Data were analyzed from April 2022 to February 2023. Exposures Comorbid conditions, demographic factors, and SARS-CoV-2 exposure risk at the time of enrollment. Main Outcomes and Measures Coprimary outcomes were COVID-19 and severe COVID-19. Multivariate Cox proportional regression models estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% CIs for baseline covariates, accounting for trial, region, and calendar time. Secondary outcomes included severe COVID-19 among people with COVID-19, subclinical SARS-CoV-2 infection, and SARS-CoV-2 infection. Results A total of 57 692 participants (median [range] age, 51 [18-95] years; 11 720 participants [20.3%] aged ≥65 years; 31 058 participants [53.8%] assigned male at birth) were included. The analysis population included 3270 American Indian or Alaska Native participants (5.7%), 7849 Black or African American participants (13.6%), 17 678 Hispanic or Latino participants (30.6%), and 40 745 White participants (70.6%). Annualized incidence was 13.9% (95% CI, 13.3%-14.4%) for COVID-19 and 2.0% (95% CI, 1.8%-2.2%) for severe COVID-19. Factors associated with increased rates of COVID-19 included workplace exposure (high vs low: aHR, 1.35 [95% CI, 1.16-1.58]; medium vs low: aHR, 1.41 [95% CI, 1.21-1.65] ; P   & amp;lt; .001) and living condition risk (very high vs low risk: aHR, 1.41 [95% CI, 1.21-1.66]; medium vs low risk: aHR, 1.19 [95% CI, 1.08-1.32] ; P   & amp;lt; .001). Factors associated with decreased rates of COVID-19 included previous SARS-CoV-2 infection (aHR, 0.13 [95% CI, 0.09-0.19]; P   & amp;lt; .001), age 65 years or older (aHR vs age & amp;lt;65 years, 0.57 [95% CI, 0.50-0.64]; P   & amp;lt; .001) and Black or African American race (aHR vs White race, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.67-0.91]; P  = .002). Factors associated with increased rates of severe COVID-19 included race (American Indian or Alaska Native vs White: aHR, 2.61 [95% CI, 1.85-3.69]; multiracial vs White: aHR, 2.19 [95% CI, 1.50-3.20] ; P   & amp;lt; .001), diabetes (aHR, 1.54 [95% CI, 1.14-2.08]; P  = .005) and at least 2 comorbidities (aHR vs none, 1.39 [95% CI, 1.09-1.76]; P  = .008). In analyses restricted to participants who contracted COVID-19, increased severe COVID-19 rates were associated with age 65 years or older (aHR vs & amp;lt;65 years, 1.75 [95% CI, 1.32-2.31]; P   & amp;lt; .001), race (American Indian or Alaska Native vs White: aHR, 1.98 [95% CI, 1.38-2.83]; Black or African American vs White: aHR, 1.49 [95% CI, 1.03-2.14] ; multiracial: aHR, 1.81 [95% CI, 1.21-2.69]; overall P  = .001), body mass index (aHR per 1-unit increase, 1.03 [95% CI, 1.01-1.04]; P  = .001), and diabetes (aHR, 1.85 [95% CI, 1.37-2.49]; P   & amp;lt; .001). Previous SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with decreased severe COVID-19 rates (aHR, 0.04 [95% CI, 0.01-0.14]; P   & amp;lt; .001). Conclusions and Relevance In this secondary cross-protocol analysis of 4 randomized clinical trials, exposure and demographic factors had the strongest associations with outcomes; results could inform mitigation strategies for SARS-CoV-2 and viruses with comparable epidemiological characteristics.

Abstract: —J. BLUNDEN, T. BOYER, AND E. BARTOW-GILLIES Earth’s global climate system is vast, complex, and intricately interrelated. Many areas are influenced by global-scale phenomena, including the “triple dip” La Niña conditions that prevailed in the eastern Pacific Ocean nearly continuously from mid-2020 through all of 2022; by regional phenomena such as the positive winter and summer North Atlantic Oscillation that impacted weather in parts the Northern Hemisphere and the negative Indian Ocean dipole that impacted weather in parts of the Southern Hemisphere; and by more localized systems such as high-pressure heat domes that caused extreme heat in different areas of the world. Underlying all these natural short-term variabilities are long-term climate trends due to continuous increases since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the atmospheric concentrations of Earth’s major greenhouse gases. In 2022, the annual global average carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere rose to 417.1±0.1 ppm, which is 50% greater than the pre-industrial level. Global mean tropospheric methane abundance was 165% higher than its pre-industrial level, and nitrous oxide was 24% higher. All three gases set new record-high atmospheric concentration levels in 2022. Sea-surface temperature patterns in the tropical Pacific characteristic of La Niña and attendant atmospheric patterns tend to mitigate atmospheric heat gain at the global scale, but the annual global surface temperature across land and oceans was still among the six highest in records dating as far back as the mid-1800s. It was the warmest La Niña year on record. Many areas observed record or near-record heat. Europe as a whole observed its second-warmest year on record, with sixteen individual countries observing record warmth at the national scale. Records were shattered across the continent during the summer months as heatwaves plagued the region. On 18 July, 104 stations in France broke their all-time records. One day later, England recorded a temperature of 40°C for the first time ever. China experienced its second-warmest year and warmest summer on record. In the Southern Hemisphere, the average temperature across New Zealand reached a record high for the second year in a row. While Australia’s annual temperature was slightly below the 1991–2020 average, Onslow Airport in Western Australia reached 50.7°C on 13 January, equaling Australia's highest temperature on record. While fewer in number and locations than record-high temperatures, record cold was also observed during the year. Southern Africa had its coldest August on record, with minimum temperatures as much as 5°C below normal over Angola, western Zambia, and northern Namibia. Cold outbreaks in the first half of December led to many record-low daily minimum temperature records in eastern Australia. The effects of rising temperatures and extreme heat were apparent across the Northern Hemisphere, where snow-cover extent by June 2022 was the third smallest in the 56-year record, and the seasonal duration of lake ice cover was the fourth shortest since 1980. More frequent and intense heatwaves contributed to the second-greatest average mass balance loss for Alpine glaciers around the world since the start of the record in 1970. Glaciers in the Swiss Alps lost a record 6% of their volume. In South America, the combination of drought and heat left many central Andean glaciers snow free by mid-summer in early 2022; glacial ice has a much lower albedo than snow, leading to accelerated heating of the glacier. Across the global cryosphere, permafrost temperatures continued to reach record highs at many high-latitude and mountain locations. In the high northern latitudes, the annual surface-air temperature across the Arctic was the fifth highest in the 123-year record. The seasonal Arctic minimum sea-ice extent, typically reached in September, was the 11th-smallest in the 43-year record; however, the amount of multiyear ice—ice that survives at least one summer melt season—remaining in the Arctic continued to decline. Since 2012, the Arctic has been nearly devoid of ice more than four years old. In Antarctica, an unusually large amount of snow and ice fell over the continent in 2022 due to several landfalling atmospheric rivers, which contributed to the highest annual surface mass balance, 15% to 16% above the 1991–2020 normal, since the start of two reanalyses records dating to 1980. It was the second-warmest year on record for all five of the long-term staffed weather stations on the Antarctic Peninsula. In East Antarctica, a heatwave event led to a new all-time record-high temperature of −9.4°C—44°C above the March average—on 18 March at Dome C. This was followed by the collapse of the critically unstable Conger Ice Shelf. More than 100 daily low sea-ice extent and sea-ice area records were set in 2022, including two new all-time annual record lows in net sea-ice extent and area in February. Across the world’s oceans, global mean sea level was record high for the 11th consecutive year, reaching 101.2 mm above the 1993 average when satellite altimetry measurements began, an increase of 3.3±0.7 over 2021. Globally-averaged ocean heat content was also record high in 2022, while the global sea-surface temperature was the sixth highest on record, equal with 2018. Approximately 58% of the ocean surface experienced at least one marine heatwave in 2022. In the Bay of Plenty, New Zealand’s longest continuous marine heatwave was recorded. A total of 85 named tropical storms were observed during the Northern and Southern Hemisphere storm seasons, close to the 1991–2020 average of 87. There were three Category 5 tropical cyclones across the globe—two in the western North Pacific and one in the North Atlantic. This was the fewest Category 5 storms globally since 2017. Globally, the accumulated cyclone energy was the lowest since reliable records began in 1981. Regardless, some storms caused massive damage. In the North Atlantic, Hurricane Fiona became the most intense and most destructive tropical or post-tropical cyclone in Atlantic Canada’s history, while major Hurricane Ian killed more than 100 people and became the third costliest disaster in the United States, causing damage estimated at $113 billion U.S. dollars. In the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Batsirai dropped 2044 mm of rain at Commerson Crater in Réunion. The storm also impacted Madagascar, where 121 fatalities were reported. As is typical, some areas around the world were notably dry in 2022 and some were notably wet. In August, record high areas of land across the globe (6.2%) were experiencing extreme drought. Overall, 29% of land experienced moderate or worse categories of drought during the year. The largest drought footprint in the contiguous United States since 2012 (63%) was observed in late October. The record-breaking megadrought of central Chile continued in its 13th consecutive year, and 80-year record-low river levels in northern Argentina and Paraguay disrupted fluvial transport. In China, the Yangtze River reached record-low values. Much of equatorial eastern Africa had five consecutive below-normal rainy seasons by the end of 2022, with some areas receiving record-low precipitation totals for the year. This ongoing 2.5-year drought is the most extensive and persistent drought event in decades, and led to crop failure, millions of livestock deaths, water scarcity, and inflated prices for staple food items. In South Asia, Pakistan received around three times its normal volume of monsoon precipitation in August, with some regions receiving up to eight times their expected monthly totals. Resulting floods affected over 30 million people, caused over 1700 fatalities, led to major crop and property losses, and was recorded as one of the world’s costliest natural disasters of all time. Near Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Petrópolis received 530 mm in 24 hours on 15 February, about 2.5 times the monthly February average, leading to the worst disaster in the city since 1931 with over 230 fatalities. On 14–15 January, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai submarine volcano in the South Pacific erupted multiple times. The injection of water into the atmosphere was unprecedented in both magnitude—far exceeding any previous values in the 17-year satellite record—and altitude as it penetrated into the mesosphere. The amount of water injected into the stratosphere is estimated to be 146±5 Terragrams, or ∼10% of the total amount in the stratosphere. It may take several years for the water plume to dissipate, and it is currently unknown whether this eruption will have any long-term climate effect.

Abstract: Purpose: Liver transplant recepients (LTRs) have an increased risk of colorectal neoplasia. The mechanism responsible for this is unknown. JCV encodes for TAg and has been implicated in colorectal carcinogenesis. We hypothesized that the use of immunosuppression in LTRs facilitates activation of JCV and is responsible for the increased risk of neoplasia. Experimental Design: JCV TAg DNA and protein expression were determined in normal colonic epithelium (n = 15) and adenomatous polyps (n = 26) from LTRs and compared with tissue samples from control patients (normal colon, n = 21; adenomas, n = 40). Apoptosis and proliferation were determined by M30 and Ki-67 immunoreactivity, respectively. Results: JCV TAg DNA was found in 10 of 15 (67%) of normal colonic mucosa from LTRs compared with 5 of 21 (24%) of control normal mucosa (P = 0.025). JCV TAg DNA was detected in 16 of 26 (62%) of the adenomas from LTRs and in 20 of 40 (50%) of control adenomas. JCV TAg protein was expressed in 13 of 26 (50%) adenomas from LTRs versus 2 of 40 (5%) of adenomas from controls (P & lt; 0.001). In adenomas from LTRs, the mean proliferative activity was higher compared with controls (60.3 ± 3.2% versus 42.7 ± 2.8%, P & lt; 0.001), whereas mean apoptotic indices were lower in LTRs (0.29 ± 0.08% versus 0.39 ± 0.06%, P = 0.05). Conclusions: The presence of JCV in the colorectal mucosa and adenomas from LTRs, in concert with the use of immunosuppressive agents, suggests that JCV may undergo reactivation, and the subsequent TAg protein expression might explain the increased risk of colorectal neoplasia in LTRs.

Abstract: Reducing the duration of untreated psychosis (DUP) is essential to improving outcomes for people with first-episode psychosis (FEP). Current US approaches are insufficient to reduce DUP to international standards of less than 90 days. Objective To determine whether population-based electronic screening in addition to standard targeted clinician education increases early detection of psychosis and decreases DUP, compared with clinician education alone. Design, Setting, and Participants This cluster randomized clinical trial included individuals aged 12 to 30 years presenting for services between March 2015 and September 2017 at participating sites that included community mental health clinics and school support and special education services. Eligible participants were referred to the Early Diagnosis and Preventative Treatment (EDAPT) Clinic. Data analyses were performed in September and October 2019 for the primary and secondary analyses, with the exploratory subgroup analyses completed in May 2021. Interventions All sites in both groups received targeted education about early psychosis for health care professionals. In the active screening group, clients also completed the Prodromal Questionnaire–Brief using tablets at intake; referrals were based on those scores and clinical judgment. In the group receiving treatment as usual (TAU), referrals were based on clinical judgment alone. Main Outcomes and Measures Primary outcomes included DUP, defined as the period from full psychosis onset to the date of the EDAPT diagnostic telephone interview, and the number of individuals identified with FEP or a psychosis spectrum disorder. Exploratory analyses examined differences by site type, completion rates between conditions, and days from service entry to telephone interview. Results Twenty-four sites agreed to participate, and 12 sites were randomized to either the active screening or TAU group. However, only 10 community clinics and 4 school sites were able to fully implement population screening and were included in the final analysis. The total potentially eligible population size within each study group was similar, with 2432 individuals entering at active screening group sites and 2455 at TAU group sites. A total of 303 diagnostic telephone interviews were completed (178 [58.7%] female individuals; mean [SD] age, 17.09 years [4.57]). Active screening sites reported a significantly higher detection rate of psychosis spectrum disorders (136 cases [5.6%] , relative to 65 [2.6%]; P   & amp;lt; .001) and referred a higher proportion of individuals with FEP and DUP less than 90 days (13 cases, relative to 4; odds ratio, 0.30; 95% CI, 0.10-0.93; P  = .03). There was no difference in mean (SD) DUP between groups (active screening group, 239.0 days [207.4]; TAU group 262.3 days [170.2] ). Conclusions and Relevance In this cluster trial, population-based technology-enhanced screening across community settings detected more than twice as many individuals with psychosis spectrum disorders compared with clinical judgment alone but did not reduce DUP. Screening could identify people undetected in US mental health services. Significant DUP reduction may require interventions to reduce time to the first mental health contact. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02841956

Abstract: In mammalian cells, the aurora kinases (aurora-A, -B, and -C) play essential roles in regulating cell division. The expression of aurora-A and -B is elevated in a variety of human cancers and is associated with high proliferation rates and poor prognosis, making them attractive targets for anticancer therapy. AMG 900 is an orally bioavailable, potent, and highly selective pan-aurora kinase inhibitor that is active in taxane-resistant tumor cell lines. In tumor cells, AMG 900 inhibited autophosphorylation of aurora-A and -B as well as phosphorylation of histone H3 on Ser10, a proximal substrate of aurora-B. The predominant cellular response of tumor cells to AMG 900 treatment was aborted cell division without a prolonged mitotic arrest, which ultimately resulted in cell death. AMG 900 inhibited the proliferation of 26 tumor cell lines, including cell lines resistant to the antimitotic drug paclitaxel and to other aurora kinase inhibitors (AZD1152, MK-0457, and PHA-739358), at low nanomolar concentrations. Furthermore, AMG 900 was active in an AZD1152-resistant HCT116 variant cell line that harbors an aurora-B mutation (W221L). Oral administration of AMG 900 blocked the phosphorylation of histone H3 in a dose-dependent manner and significantly inhibited the growth of HCT116 tumor xenografts. Importantly, AMG 900 was broadly active in multiple xenograft models, including 3 multidrug-resistant xenograft models, representing 5 tumor types. AMG 900 has entered clinical evaluation in adult patients with advanced cancers and has the potential to treat tumors refractory to anticancer drugs such as the taxanes. Cancer Res; 70(23); 9846–54. ©2010 AACR.