Abstract: Climate change projections for Australia predict increasing temperatures, changes to rainfall patterns, and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. The aims of this study were to predict plant production responses to elevated CO2 concentrations using the SGS Pasture Model and DairyMod, and then to quantify the effects of climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2070 on predicted pasture growth, species composition, and soil moisture conditions of 5 existing pasture systems in climates ranging from cool temperate to subtropical, relative to a historical baseline. Three future climate scenarios were created for each site by adjusting historical climate data according to temperature and rainfall change projections for 2030, 2070 mid- and 2070 high-emission scenarios, using output from the CSIRO Mark 3 global climate model. In the absence of other climate changes, mean annual pasture production at an elevated CO2 concentration of 550 ppm was predicted to be 24–29% higher than at 380 ppm CO2 in temperate (C3) species-dominant pastures in southern Australia, with lower mean responses in a mixed C3/C4 pasture at Barraba in northern New South Wales (17%) and in a C4 pasture at Mutdapilly in south-eastern Queensland (9%). In the future climate scenarios at the Barraba and Mutdapilly sites in subtropical and subhumid climates, respectively, where climate projections indicated warming of up to 4.4°C, with little change in annual rainfall, modelling predicted increased pasture production and a shift towards C4 species dominance. In Mediterranean, temperate, and cool temperate climates, climate change projections indicated warming of up to 3.3°C, with annual rainfall reduced by up to 28%. Under future climate scenarios at Wagga Wagga, NSW, and Ellinbank, Victoria, our study predicted increased winter and early spring pasture growth rates, but this was counteracted by a predicted shorter spring growing season, with annual pasture production higher than the baseline under the 2030 climate scenario, but reduced by up to 19% under the 2070 high scenario. In a cool temperate environment at Elliott, Tasmania, annual production was higher than the baseline in all 3 future climate scenarios, but highest in the 2070 mid scenario. At the Wagga Wagga, Ellinbank, and Elliott sites the effect of rainfall declines on pasture production was moderated by a predicted reduction in drainage below the root zone and, at Ellinbank, the use of deeper rooted plant systems was shown to be an effective adaptation to mitigate some of the effect of lower rainfall.

Abstract: The efficacy and safety of upadacitinib (UPA), an oral Janus kinase inhibitor, in patients (pts) with active psoriatic arthritis (PsA) were demonstrated through 24 weeks in the phase 3 SELECT-PsA 1 and SELECT-PsA 2 placebo-controlled clinical trials. 1,2 Objectives: To describe the long-term integrated safety profile of UPA relative to adalimumab (ADA) in pts with PsA treated in the SELECT program. Methods: The SELECT-PsA program enrolled pts with prior inadequate response or intolerance to ≥1 non-biologic DMARD (SELECT-PsA 1) or ≥1 biologic DMARD (SELECT-PsA 2). Both trials include UPA 15 mg and 30 mg, and only SELECT-PsA 1 includes long-term comparison with ADA 40 mg every other week. Treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs: AE onset ≥first dose and ≤30 days after last dose for UPA and ≤70 days for ADA) were summarized for the following: pooled UPA 15; pooled UPA 30; and ADA. TEAEs are reported as exposure-adjusted event rates (EAERs; events/100 pts years [E/100 PY]) up to a cut-off date of 20 June 2020. Results: 2257 pts received ≥1 dose of UPA 15 (N=907; 1247.2 PYs), UPA 30 (N=921; 1257.4 PYs), or ADA (N=429; 549.7 PYs), with median (max) exposures of 69 (155), 69 (154), and 68 (152) weeks, respectively. EAERs of TEAEs and serious AEs were generally similar between UPA 15 and ADA and higher with UPA 30; rates of AEs leading to study drug discontinuation were generally similar across all groups (Table 1). Similarly, rates of serious infection were comparable between UPA 15 and ADA and higher with UPA 30 (Figure 1 next page). The most common serious infection was pneumonia. Rates of herpes zoster were lower with UPA 15 than UPA 30 but higher than ADA. Most herpes zoster events involved a single dermatome; no events involved the central nervous system or other internal organs. Lower rates of opportunistic infections (OI) excluding tuberculosis were observed with UPA 15 vs UPA 30; the most common OI was mucosal candida infection. Malignancies were reported at similar rates across all treatment groups; no events of lymphoma were reported. Age-gender-adjusted standardized incidence ratios for malignancies excluding NMSC indicated no increased risk with UPA compared to the general population. Rates of adjudicated major adverse cardiovascular events and venous thromboembolic events were ≤0.3 E/100 PY for both UPA arms; all pts had ≥1 risk factor. One adjudicated gastrointestinal perforation was reported with UPA 15. Table 1. Overall Treatment-emergent AEs for Upadacitinib and Adalimumab (E/100 PY [95% CI]) UPA 15 mg QD N=907 (1247.2 PY ) UPA 30 mg QD N=921 (1257.4 PY ) ADA 40 mg EOW N=429 (549.7 PY ) AEs 263.9 (254.9, 272.9) 321.5 (311.6, 331.5) 286.5 (272.4, 300.7) Serious AEs 10.3 (8.6, 12.1) 13.2 (11.2, 15.2) 9.6 (7.0, 12.2) AE leading to discontinuation 6.7 (5.2, 8.1) 7.8 (6.2, 9.3) 7.8 (5.5, 10.2) Deaths a 0.2 (-0.1, 0.4) 0.2 (-0.0, 0.5) 0.2 (-0.2, 0.5) a Deaths included non-treatment emergent deaths: UPA 15, 1; UPA 30, 1. ADA, adalimumab; AE, adverse event; CI, confidence interval; E, event; EOW, every other week; PY, patient years; QD, once daily; UPA, upadacitinib. Hepatic disorders were mostly transient, non-serious transaminase increases. Creatine phosphokinase elevations were reported more frequently with UPA 30 vs UPA 15; most were asymptomatic with no rhabdomyolysis reported. AEs of anemia, neutropenia, and lymphopenia were generally mild or moderate, non-serious. Except for rates of lymphopenia (higher with UPA 15), hepatic disorders, and neutropenia (both higher with ADA), lab-related TEAEs occurred at generally consistent rates between UPA 15 and ADA. Study drug discontinuation due to lab-related TEAEs was uncommon. Conclusion: The safety profiles of UPA 15 and ADA were generally similar; the rates of most AEs were higher with UPA 30 compared with ADA. Through the cut-off date, the safety profile of UPA 15 and UPA 30 in PsA pts demonstrated consistent results compared to what has been observed with UPA in rheumatoid arthritis. 3 References: [1]McInnes IB et al. Ann Rheum Dis , 2020; 79:12. [2]Mease PJ et al. Ann Rheum Dis , 2020. [3]Cohen SB et al. Ann Rheum Dis , 2020. Figure 1 Acknowledgements: AbbVie and the authors thank the patients, study sites, and investigators who participated in this clinical trial. AbbVie, Inc was the study sponsor, contributed to study design, data collection, analysis & interpretation, and to writing, reviewing, and approval of final version. No honoraria or payments were made for authorship. Medical writing support was provided by Ramona Vladea, PhD of AbbVie Inc. Disclosure of Interests: Gerd Rüdiger Burmester Speakers bureau: AbbVie, Gilead, Lilly, Pfizer, Consultant of: AbbVie, Gilead, Lilly, Pfizer, Kevin Winthrop Consultant of: UCB Pharma, Pfizer, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly, AbbVie, Gilead, Galapagos, and Roche, Grant/research support from: UCB Pharma, Pfizer, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly, AbbVie, Gilead, Galapagos, and Roche, Ricardo Blanco Consultant of: Abbvie, Lilly, Novartis, Pfizer, Roche, Bristol-Myers, Janssen, and MSD, Grant/research support from: Abbvie, MSD and Roche, Peter Nash Consultant of: AbbVie, BMS, Roche, Pfizer, Janssen, Amgen, Sanofi-Aventis, UCB, Eli Lilly, Novartis, and Celgene, Grant/research support from: AbbVie, BMS, Roche, Pfizer, Janssen, Amgen, Sanofi-Aventis, UCB, Eli Lilly, Novartis, and Celgene, Philippe Goupille Consultant of: AbbVie, Amgen, Biogen, BMS, Celgene, Chugai, Janssen, Lilly, Medac, MSD, Nordic Pharma, Novartis, Pfizer, Sanofi and UCB, Grant/research support from: AbbVie, Amgen, Biogen, BMS, Celgene, Chugai, Janssen, Lilly, Medac, MSD, Nordic Pharma, Novartis, Pfizer, Sanofi and UCB, Valderilio F Azevedo Consultant of: AbbVie, BMS, Pfizer, Janssen, Amgen, Novartis, Eli Lilly, UCB, Celltrion and GSK, Grant/research support from: AbbVie, BMS, Pfizer, Janssen, Amgen, Novartis, Eli Lilly, UCB, Celltrion and GSK, Carlo Salvarani Consultant of: Roche, Sanofi-Genzyme, AbbVie, Pfizer, Lilly, Novartis, Amgen, Grant/research support from: Roche, Sanofi-Genzyme, AbbVie, Pfizer, Lilly, Novartis, Amgen, Andrea Rubbert-Roth Consultant of: AbbVie, BMS, Chugai, Roche, Gilead, Janssen, Lilly, Sanofi, Amgen, Novartis, Grant/research support from: AbbVie, BMS, Chugai, Roche, Gilead, Janssen, Lilly, Sanofi, Amgen, Novartis, Elizabeth Lesser Shareholder of: AbbVie, Employee of: AbbVie, Reva McCaskill Shareholder of: AbbVie, Employee of: AbbVie, Jianzhong Liu Shareholder of: AbbVie, Employee of: AbbVie, Bosny Pierre-Louis Shareholder of: AbbVie, Employee of: AbbVie, Sandra Walko Shareholder of: AbbVie, Employee of: AbbVie, Ralph Lippe Shareholder of: AbbVie, Employee of: AbbVie, Apinya Lertratanakul Shareholder of: AbbVie, Employee of: AbbVie, Eric Ruderman Consultant of: AbbVie, Amgen, Gilead, Janssen, Lilly, Novartis, and Pfizer.

Abstract: Eleven experimental sites in the Sustainable Grazing Systems (SGS) national experiment were established in the high rainfall zone (HRZ, 〉 600 mm/year) of Western Australia, Victoria and New South Wales to measure components of the water balance, and pathways of water movement, for a range of pastures from 1997 to 2001. The effect of widely spaced river red gums (Eucalyptus camaldulensis) in pasture, and of belts of plantation blue gums (E. globulus), was studied at 2 of the sites. The soil types tested ranged from Kurosols, Chromosols and Sodosols, with different subsoil permeabilities, to Hydrosols and Tenosols. The pasture types tested were kikuyu (Pennisetum clandestinum), phalaris (Phalaris aquatica), redgrass (Bothriochloa macra) and annual ryegrass (Lolium rigidum), with subterranean clover (Trifolium subterraneum) included. Management variables were set stocking v. rotational grazing, adjustable stocking rates, and level of fertiliser input. Soil, pasture and animal measurements were used to set parameters for the biophysical SGS pasture model, which simulated the long-term effects of soil, pasture type, grazing method and management on water use and movement, using as inputs daily weather data for 31 years from selected sites representing a range of climates. Measurements of mean maximum soil water deficit Sm were used to estimate the probability of surplus water occurring in winter, and the average amount of this surplus, which was highest (97–201 mm/year) for pastures in the cooler, winter-rainfall dominant regions of north-east and western Victoria and lowest (3–11 mm/year) in the warmer, lower rainfall regions of the eastern Riverina and Esperance, Western Australia. Kikuyu in Western Australia achieved the largest increase in Sm compared with annual pasture (55–71 mm), while increases due to phalaris were 18–45 mm, and those of native perennials were small and variable. Long-term model simulations suggested rooting depth was crucial in decreasing deep drainage, to about 50 mm/year for kikuyu rooting to 2.5 m, compared with 70–200 mm/year for annuals rooting to only 0.8 m. Plantation blue gums dried the soil profile to 5.25 m by an average of 400 mm more than kikuyu pasture, reducing the probability of winter surplus water to zero, and eliminating drainage below the root zone. Widely spaced river red gums had a much smaller effect on water use, and would need to number at least 14 trees per hectare to achieve extra soil drying of about 50 mm over a catchment. Soil type affected water use primarily through controlling the rooting depth of the vegetation, but it also changed the partitioning of surplus water between runoff and deep drainage. Strongly duplex soils such as Sodosols shed 50% or more surplus water as runoff, which is important for flushing streams, provided the water is of good quality. Grazing method and pasture management had only a marginal effect in increasing water use, but could have a positive effect on farm profitability through increased livestock production per hectare and improved persistence of perennial species.

Abstract: To assess the risks and benefits of more intensive pasture management, 2 or 3 treatments with contrasting fertiliser regimes were selected from each site of the Sustainable Grazing Systems national experiment. The assessment used soil coring data, modelling and runoff nutrient concentration data.Soil acidification rates were estimated from the simulated nitrate leaching and product removal estimated from the stocking rates at each site. Much higher acidification rates were estimated at sites in Victoria and southern Western Australia than in northern New South Wales. This was because of a lower level of nitrate leaching in summer-dominant rainfall environments coupled with lower stocking rates. Simulations showed highest nitrate leaching on annual pastures, but that a phalaris pasture could reduce this, and a kikuyu pasture could almost fully control leaching.The concentration of P in surface runoff was related to soil P status at the 4 southern sites, indicating that greater use of P fertiliser would increase P movement into waterways. There was no relationship between soil P status and P in surface runoff at the northern New South Wales sites, and across all sites there were no relationships between P fertility and runoff N levels. Concentrations of P and N in runoff greatly exceeded stream water quality guidelines, even on treatments where only minimal P had been applied as fertiliser. There was also evidence of high spatial variation in surface runoff generation, with surface runoff from some plots less than 5% of the streamflow in nearby reference streams. There is therefore scope to control P concentrations in streams by retiring from production the parts of the landscape that generate high quantities of surface flow, but to intensify production on areas that produce little runoff.

Abstract: The soil phosphorus (P) requirements of 18 species that included native grasses and naturalised legumes were compared with the predominant sown species (Trifolium subterraneum, Lolium perenne and Phalaris aquatica) in a series of glasshouse and field experiments based on the Long-term Phosphate Experiment at Hamilton, Victoria. The native grasses Austrostipa scabra and Rytidosperma caespitosum had the lowest external P requirements, as measured by the Olsen P at which 90% of maximal dry matter (DM) production was obtained, but were of low nutrient value as livestock feed. The naturalised legume Lotus corniculatus had the lowest external P requirement of the legumes, but had low DM production. The highest legume DM production under low-P conditions in the field and one glasshouse experiment was obtained for T. subterraneum. This was attributed to its large seed, which enables rapid initial growth and thus captures light and nutrient resources early in the growing season. However, it forms a relatively low proportion of the pasture sward in low-P soil under grazed mixed pasture conditions in the field. This was attributed to its relatively high nutritive value, which leads to it being preferentially grazed, leaving species that are either less palatable or less accessible to grazing livestock. This work suggests that, in low-P environments, there is a much stronger selection pressure favouring low relative palatability over P efficiency. In conclusion, to maintain desirable species in temperate low-input pastures, sufficient P needs to be applied to maintain fertility above a threshold at which the less-palatable species begin to invade.

Abstract: Improved dryland pastures for sheep and beef cattle production in south-western Victoria are typically based on summer-dormant cultivars of perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne L.) or phalaris (Phalaris aquatica L.). These are highly productive in spring but exhibit low accumulation rates over summer–autumn. Summer-active perennial pasture species could potentially alleviate this summer–autumn feed gap. Three pasture systems that used different pastures on each of the three landscape classes (crest, slope, and valley floor) were compared over 4 years. The perennial ryegrass system (henceforth Ryegrass) had a different ryegrass cultivar on each landscape class. The Triple system used lucerne (Medicago sativa L.) (crest), perennial ryegrass (slope), and summer-active tall fescue (Lolium arundinaceum (Schreb) Darbysh.) (valley floor). The Novel system used chicory (Cichorium intybus L.) (crest), Italian ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum Lam.) or hybrid ryegrass (L. × boucheanum Kunth.) (slope), and kikuyu (Pennisetum clandestinum Hochst. ex Chiov.) (valley floor). The pastures were grazed by either one (in the case of the Novel system) or three (in the case of the Ryegrass and Triple systems) animal systems that varied over the life of the experiment. Total annual herbage accumulation of the Ryegrass and Triple systems did not differ. The Novel system consistently had lower total annual dry matter accumulation than the other two systems. Lucerne pastures generally had the highest accumulation rates over summer, followed by the chicory pastures. The kikuyu pastures responded well to summer rainfall but otherwise had similar accumulation rates to the perennial ryegrass and tall fescue pastures over summer. Tall fescue pastures grew well in autumn following wet summers. In spring the perennial ryegrass pastures based on Fitzroy or Avalon were highly productive but seldom grew faster than other pastures. The results support the hypothesis that incorporating deep-rooted, summer-active perennial species will increase pasture production over summer–autumn compared with conventional pasture systems but not at the expense of winter–spring production.

Abstract: Although generally well adapted and productive, the summer-dormant perennial pastures of southern Australia do not provide a year-round, high nutritive value feed base, they fail to respond to summer rainfall, and they are inefficient in using stored soil water, which can contribute to dryland salinity. An experiment was conducted to test the hypothesis that deep-rooted, summer-active perennial pasture species, matched to soil type, can be grown successfully in southern Australia to increase pasture and animal productivity and to provide high quality feed in summer–autumn. Specifically, the experiment compared a traditional perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne L.) pasture system with two systems based on summer-active species: the triple system with lucerne (Medicago sativa L.) and tall fescue (Lolium arundinaceum (Schreb) Darbysh), and the novel system with chicory (Cichorium intybus L.) and kikuyu (Pennisetum clandestinum Hochst. ex Chiov). The experiment incorporated three livestock systems (two sheep and one cattle) and took into account the three main soil types occurring on the DPI Hamilton research farm. After 4 years the perennial ryegrass, lucerne, and tall fescue components were all persisting well and providing feed with high nutritive value (all with frequency scores 〉 70% in the last year of the experiment). The chicory and kikuyu pastures declined over the life of the experiment and were contributing little at the end (frequency scores 〈 15% in the final year). Lucerne, tall fescue, and perennial ryegrass cv. Banquet were able to respond to summer rainfall events to provide valuable, high-quality feed at a time when the quality of perennial ryegrass pasture is normally at its lowest; April 2007 crude protein per cent dry matter values were Avalon perennial ryegrass 16.6, Fitzroy perennial ryegrass 15.6, kikuyu 24.2, lucerne 25.8, and tall fescue 20.3 following a 98 mm rainfall event in late January 2007. This study has shown that the triple and ryegrass systems were persistent and of high nutritive value, with the sown perennial species contributing the majority of the sward dry matter during the growing season.