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  • 1
    In: The Lancet, Elsevier BV, Vol. 397, No. 10289 ( 2021-05), p. 2049-2059
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0140-6736
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: Elsevier BV
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2067452-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3306-6
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1476593-7
    SSG: 5,21
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Frontiers Media SA ; 2023
    In:  Frontiers in Marine Science Vol. 10 ( 2023-1-30)
    In: Frontiers in Marine Science, Frontiers Media SA, Vol. 10 ( 2023-1-30)
    Abstract: In the Mediterranean Sea, marine ecosystems and the resource-based economy are shared among many countries, making this a regional sea of important geopolitical and economic stakes. Over the last decades, marine heat waves (MHWs) in the Mediterranean Sea have caused mass-mortality events in various marine species and critical losses for seafood industries. MHWs are expected to become more intense, longer and more frequent through anthropogenic warming. This study proposes to better understand how much each Mediterranean country’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) waters may be affected by MHW changes, to contribute to decision support for management and adaptation at national scale. The variability of surface and subsurface MHWs is assessed over the 1987-2019 period in the Mediterranean EEZs, which are ocean areas where sovereign states have special rights. Combining high-resolution satellite observations and a regional reanalysis, sea surface temperature and ocean heat content are used to define surface and subsurface MHWs. The MHW characteristics selected in this study highlight the important differences between surface and subsurface extreme events. MHW frequency is higher at the surface than in the subsurface and has significantly increased in most EEZs both at the surface and in the subsurface, while MHW duration is longer in the subsurface than at the surface in all EEZs. MHW intensities decrease with depth, while its increase over time is more disparate throughout the basin. MHW maximum intensity displays significant positive trends with higher surface values in the western Mediterranean Sea, while in the subsurface it reaches its extreme values in the EEZs of the Levantine basin. In contrast, MHW cumulative intensity exhibits its extreme trend values in the eastern Mediterranean Sea both at the surface and in the subsurface. The choice of a “Top-Ten” list of EEZs shows that the impact to EEZs is different depending on the MHW characteristics and the depth, emphasizing the need to consider all MHW characteristics and to avoid focusing only on the surface. Overall, the results highlight the necessity of strengthening surface and subsurface observing systems in most national waters to better establish local-scale risk assessments and to respond to diverse stakeholder needs.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2296-7745
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2757748-X
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  • 3
    In: BMJ Open, BMJ, Vol. 8, No. 11 ( 2018-11), p. e024136-
    Abstract: In Scotland, the incidence of breast cancer is predicted to rise significantly in the next few decades and while there are measures to support reductions in morbidity and mortality, the breast cancer community is currently exploring preventative opportunities including supporting weight management programmes in postmenopausal women. This study aims to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a theory-based, community delivered, minimal contact, weight management (diet, physical activity and behaviour change techniques) programme (ActWELL) in women with a body mass index (BMI) 〉 25 kg/m 2 attending routine breast cancer screening appointments. Methods and analysis The study will be a four-centre, 1:1 parallel group randomised controlled trial of a 12-month weight management intervention initiated in breast cancer screening centres, delivered by trained Breast Cancer Now lifestyle coaches in community settings. The intervention programme involves two intervention meetings with coaches plus (up to) nine telephone contacts over 12 months. The programme will focus on personalised diet (including alcoholic and sugary drinks) and physical activity habits. Behaviour change techniques include self-monitoring, goal setting, implementation intentions, action and coping plans. The study has a sample size of 414 women with a BMI 〉 25 kg/m 2 attending routine National Health Service breast cancer screening appointments. Measures will be taken at baseline, 12 weeks and at 12-month follow-up, complemented by qualitative interviews exploring perceived acceptability and impact on habitual behaviours. The two co-primary outcomes are mean change in measured body weight and change in physical activity between groups to 12 months. Secondary outcomes are changes in eating habits, alcohol intake, sedentary time, quality of life, waist circumference, lipid, haemoglobin A1c and insulin profiles, blood pressure and cost-effectiveness of the intervention. Ethics and dissemination The protocol has been approved by East of Scotland Research Ethics Committee (17/ES/0073). All participants provide written informed consent. Dissemination will be through peer-reviewed publication and conference presentations. Trial registration number ISRCTN11057518 ; Pre-results.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2044-6055 , 2044-6055
    Language: English
    Publisher: BMJ
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2599832-8
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  • 4
    In: The Lancet, Elsevier BV, Vol. 391, No. 10117 ( 2018-01), p. 219-229
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0140-6736
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: Elsevier BV
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2067452-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3306-6
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1476593-7
    SSG: 5,21
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  • 5
    In: The Lancet, Elsevier BV, Vol. 391, No. 10117 ( 2018-01), p. 205-218
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0140-6736
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: Elsevier BV
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2067452-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3306-6
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1476593-7
    SSG: 5,21
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  • 6
    In: Trials, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 21, No. 1 ( 2020-12)
    Abstract: Around 30% of post-menopausal breast cancer is related to excess body fat, alcohol intake and low levels of physical activity. Current estimates suggest that there is a 12% increased risk in post-menopausal breast cancer for every 5 kg/m 2 increase in body mass index (BMI). Despite this evidence there are few lifestyle programmes directed towards breast cancer risk reduction. This paper describes the process of optimising of the ActWELL programme which aims to support weight management in women invited to attend routine National Health Service (NHS) breast screening clinics. Methods A feasibility study of a prototype programme aiming to change lifestyle behaviours was successfully undertaken. The programme used educational approaches and behaviour change techniques delivered by lifestyle coaches using individual face to face meetings and telephone sessions. To optimise the intervention for a definitive randomised controlled trial of weight management, data from the feasibility trial, focus group discussions conducted with the target population, feedback from the trial public advisory group and comments from peer reviewers were obtained. Concepts from implementation research provided further guidance to assist in the refinement of the intervention, which was then discussed and agreed by all investigators and the Trial Steering Group. Results The results from the feasibility trial were considered appropriate for moving on to a full trial with 70% of participants finding the programme acceptable. The primary outcomes (weight loss and physical activity) provided an important focus for design input from the target group. The contributions highlighted the need to review programme duration, coach contact time, content and use of behaviour change techniques and communications generally (e.g. science and evidence, non-judgemental approaches and avoiding guilt). In addition, the need for emphasis on support rather than education became apparent. The recommendations from peer reviewers focussed on the magnitude of effort required to achieve the intended weight loss and weight loss maintenance. Implementation science supported the use of the capability/opportunity/motivation (COM-B)model in overall design. Conclusions The optimisation process has facilitated the development and evaluation of a programme that enables the delivery of a promising intervention to achieve weight management in post-menopausal women. Trial registration ISRCTN: ISRCTN11057518 . Registered on 21 July 2017. Retrospectively registered.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1745-6215
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2040523-6
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Frontiers Media SA ; 2024
    In:  Frontiers in Marine Science Vol. 11 ( 2024-5-21)
    In: Frontiers in Marine Science, Frontiers Media SA, Vol. 11 ( 2024-5-21)
    Abstract: There is growing demand for seasonal forecast products for marine applications. The availability of consistent and sufficiently long observational records of ocean variables permits the assessment of the spatial distribution of the skill of ocean variables from seasonal forecasts. Here we use state-of-the-art temporal records of sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH) and upper 300m ocean heat content (OHC) to quantify the distribution of skill, up to 2 seasons ahead, of two operational seasonal forecasting systems contributing to the seasonal multi-model of the Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S). This study presents the spatial distribution of the skill of the seasonal forecast ensemble mean in terms of anomaly correlation and root mean square error and compares it to the persistence and climatological benchmarks. The comparative assessment of the skill among variables sheds light on sources/limits of predictability at seasonal time scales, as well as the nature of model errors. Beyond these standard verification metrics, we also evaluate the ability of the models to represent the observed long-term trends. Results show that long-term trends contribute to the skill of seasonal forecasts. Although the forecasts capture the long-term trends in general, some regional aspects remain challenging. Part of these errors can be attributed to specific aspects of the ocean initialization, but others, such as the overestimation of the warming in the Eastern Pacific are also influenced by model error. Skill gains can be obtained by improving the trend representation in future forecasting systems. In the meantime, a forecast calibration procedure that corrects the linear trends can produce substantial skill gains. The results show that calibrated seasonal forecasts beat both the climatological and persistence benchmark almost at every location for all initial dates and lead times. Results demonstrate the value of the seasonal forecasts for marine applications and highlight the importance of representing the decadal variability and trends in ocean heat content and sea level.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2296-7745
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
    Publication Date: 2024
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2757748-X
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Oxford University Press (OUP) ; 2017
    In:  Significance Vol. 14, No. 5 ( 2017-10-01), p. 24-27
    In: Significance, Oxford University Press (OUP), Vol. 14, No. 5 ( 2017-10-01), p. 24-27
    Abstract: Plastic waste is found in ocean waters, on beaches and in the marine food chain. Counting it all would be impossible, but the approximate scale of the problem can be estimated. Ronan McAdam highlights the many roles of statistics in describing and tackling this global issue
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1740-9705 , 1740-9713
    Language: English
    Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2142361-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2139469-6
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  • 9
    In: International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 18, No. 1 ( 2021-12)
    Abstract: It is estimated that around 30% of breast cancers in post-menopausal women are related to lifestyle. The breast cancer-pooling project demonstrated that sustained weight loss of 2 to 4.5 kg is associated with an 18% lower risk of breast cancer, highlighting the importance of small changes in body weight. Our study aimed to assess the effectiveness a volunteer-delivered, community based, weight management programme (ActWELL) for women with a BMI 〉  25 kg/m 2 attending NHS Scotland Breast Screening clinics. Methods A multicentre, 1:1 parallel group, randomised controlled trial was undertaken in 560 women aged 50 to 70 years with BMI 〉  25 kg/m 2 . On completion of baseline measures, all participants received a breast cancer prevention leaflet. Intervention group participants received the ActWELL intervention which focussed on personalised diet advice and pedometer walking plans. The programme was delivered in leisure centres by (the charity) Breast Cancer Now volunteer coaches. Primary outcomes were changes between groups at 12 months in body weight (kg) and physical activity (accelerometer measured step count). Results Two hundred seventy-nine women were allocated to the intervention group and 281 to the comparison group. Twelve-month data were available from 240 (81%) intervention and 227 (85%) comparison group participants. Coaches delivered 523 coaching sessions and 1915 support calls to 279 intervention participants. Mean weight change was − 2.5 kg (95% CI − 3.1 to − 1.9) in the intervention group and − 1.2 kg (− 1.8 to 0.6) in the comparison group. The adjusted mean difference was − 1.3 kg (95% CI − 2.2 to − 0.4, P  = 0.003). The odds ratio for losing 5% weight was 2.20 (95% CI 1.4 to 3.4, p  = 0.0005) in favour of the intervention. The adjusted mean difference in step counts between groups was 483 steps/day (95% CI − 635 to 1602) (NS). Conclusions A community weight management intervention initiated at breast screening clinics and delivered by volunteer coaches doubled the likelihood of clinically significant weight loss at 12 months (compared with usual care) offering significant potential to decrease breast cancer risk. Trial registration Database of registration: ISCRTN. Registration number: 11057518 . Date trial registered:21.07.2017. Date of enrolment of first participant: 01.09.2017.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1479-5868
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2134691-4
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Wiley ; 2017
    In:  Meteoritics & Planetary Science Vol. 52, No. 8 ( 2017-08), p. 1542-1560
    In: Meteoritics & Planetary Science, Wiley, Vol. 52, No. 8 ( 2017-08), p. 1542-1560
    Abstract: Asteroids and comets 10–100 m in size that collide with Earth disrupt dramatically in the atmosphere with an explosive transfer of energy, caused by extreme air drag. Such airbursts produce a strong blastwave that radiates from the meteoroid's trajectory and can cause damage on the surface. An established technique for predicting airburst blastwave damage is to treat the airburst as a static source of energy and to extrapolate empirical results of nuclear explosion tests using an energy‐based scaling approach. Here we compare this approach to two more complex models using the iSALE shock physics code. We consider a moving‐source airburst model where the meteoroid's energy is partitioned as two‐thirds internal energy and one‐third kinetic energy at the burst altitude, and a model in which energy is deposited into the atmosphere along the meteoroid's trajectory based on the pancake model of meteoroid disruption. To justify use of the pancake model, we show that it provides a good fit to the inferred energy release of the 2013 Chelyabinsk fireball. Predicted overpressures from all three models are broadly consistent at radial distances from ground zero that exceed three times the burst height. At smaller radial distances, the moving‐source model predicts overpressures two times greater than the static‐source model, whereas the cylindrical line‐source model based on the pancake model predicts overpressures two times lower than the static‐source model. Given other uncertainties associated with airblast damage predictions, the static‐source approach provides an adequate approximation of the azimuthally averaged airblast for probabilistic hazard assessment.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1086-9379 , 1945-5100
    URL: Issue
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2011097-2
    SSG: 16,12
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