In:
PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science (PLoS), Vol. 15, No. 12 ( 2020-12-8), p. e0236541-
Abstract:
We found a startling correlation (Pearson ρ 〉 0.97) between a single event in daily sea surface temperatures each spring, and peak fish egg abundance measurements the following summer, in 7 years of approximately weekly fish egg abundance data collected at Scripps Pier in La Jolla California. Even more surprising was that this event-based result persisted despite the large and variable number of fish species involved (up to 46), and the large and variable time interval between trigger and response (up to ~3 months). To mitigate potential over-fitting, we made an out-of-sample prediction beyond the publication process for the peak summer egg abundance observed at Scripps Pier in 2020 (available on bioRxiv). During peer-review, the prediction failed, and while it would be tempting to explain this away as a result of the record-breaking toxic algal bloom that occurred during the spring (9x higher concentration of dinoflagellates than ever previously recorded), a re-examination of our methodology revealed a potential source of over-fitting that had not been evaluated for robustness. This cautionary tale highlights the importance of testable true out-of-sample predictions of future values that cannot (even accidentally) be used in model fitting, and that can therefore catch model assumptions that may otherwise escape notice. We believe that this example can benefit the current push towards ecology as a predictive science and support the notion that predictions should live and die in the public domain, along with the models that made them.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
1932-6203
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pone.0236541
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pone.0236541.g001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pone.0236541.g002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pone.0236541.g003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pone.0236541.g004
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pone.0236541.s001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pone.0236541.s002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pone.0236541.s003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pone.0236541.s004
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pone.0236541.s005
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pone.0236541.s006
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pone.0236541.r001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pone.0236541.r002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pone.0236541.r003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pone.0236541.r004
Language:
English
Publisher:
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Publication Date:
2020
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2267670-3
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