In:
Advanced Materials Research, Trans Tech Publications, Ltd., Vol. 143-144 ( 2010-10), p. 566-570
Abstract:
In this paper,it proposes insulator flashover probability prediction model based on Markov chain and ARMA-GARCH. It provides a foundation for risk evaluation of rainstorm of power system. First,this model daily precipitation forecasting model which combined Markov chain with ARMA-GARCH based on self-dependency and time-varying of atmosphere factor; and then according to rainfall’s impact on insulator’s pollution raining flashover,the paper raises the probability prediction model of insulator flashover;Ultimately, we can predict the insulator flashover’s probability. Through Historical data of Hunan Grid to calculate the probability of flashover, and compares with the actual situation it shows that the method can achieve rapid, accurate prediction of power insulator flashover probability.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
1662-8985
DOI:
10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.143-144
DOI:
10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.143-144.566
Language:
Unknown
Publisher:
Trans Tech Publications, Ltd.
Publication Date:
2010
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2265002-7
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