In:
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science (PLoS), Vol. 16, No. 3 ( 2022-3-4), p. e0010244-
Abstract:
Viruses transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes have greatly expanded their geographic range in recent decades. They are considered emerging public health threats throughout the world, including Europe. Therefore, public health authorities must be prepared by quantifying the potential magnitude of virus transmission and the effectiveness of interventions. Methodology We developed a mathematical model with a vector-host structure for chikungunya virus transmission and estimated model parameters from epidemiological data of the two main autochthonous chikungunya virus transmission events that occurred in Southern France, in Montpellier (2014) and in Le Cannet-des-Maures (2017). We then performed simulations of the model using these estimates to forecast the magnitude of the foci of transmission as a function of the response delay and the moment of virus introduction. Conclusions The results of the different simulations underline the relative importance of each variable and can be useful to stakeholders when designing context-based intervention strategies. The findings emphasize the importance of, and advocate for early detection of imported cases and timely biological confirmation of autochthonous cases to ensure timely vector control measures, supporting the implementation and the maintenance of sustainable surveillance systems.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
1935-2735
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010244
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010244.g001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010244.g002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010244.g003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010244.g004
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010244.g005
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010244.t001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010244.t002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010244.t003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010244.s001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010244.s002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010244.s003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010244.s004
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010244.s005
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010244.s006
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010244.s007
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010244.s008
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010244.s009
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010244.s010
Language:
English
Publisher:
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Publication Date:
2022
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2429704-5
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