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  • 1
    In: BJS Open, Oxford University Press (OUP), Vol. 6, No. 1 ( 2022-01-06)
    Abstract: Postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common complication of major gastrointestinal surgery with an impact on short- and long-term survival. No validated system for risk stratification exists for this patient group. This study aimed to validate externally a prognostic model for AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery in two multicentre cohort studies. Methods The Outcomes After Kidney injury in Surgery (OAKS) prognostic model was developed to predict risk of AKI in the 7 days after surgery using six routine datapoints (age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker). Validation was performed within two independent cohorts: a prospective multicentre, international study (‘IMAGINE’) of patients undergoing elective colorectal surgery (2018); and a retrospective regional cohort study (‘Tayside’) in major abdominal surgery (2011–2015). Multivariable logistic regression was used to predict risk of AKI, with multiple imputation used to account for data missing at random. Prognostic accuracy was assessed for patients at high risk (greater than 20 per cent) of postoperative AKI. Results In the validation cohorts, 12.9 per cent of patients (661 of 5106) in IMAGINE and 14.7 per cent (106 of 719 patients) in Tayside developed 7-day postoperative AKI. Using the OAKS model, 558 patients (9.6 per cent) were classified as high risk. Less than 10 per cent of patients classified as low-risk developed AKI in either cohort (negative predictive value greater than 0.9). Upon external validation, the OAKS model retained an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curve of range 0.655–0.681 (Tayside 95 per cent c.i. 0.596 to 0.714; IMAGINE 95 per cent c.i. 0.659 to 0.703), sensitivity values range 0.323–0.352 (IMAGINE 95 per cent c.i. 0.281 to 0.368; Tayside 95 per cent c.i. 0.253 to 0.461), and specificity range 0.881–0.890 (Tayside 95 per cent c.i. 0.853 to 0.905; IMAGINE 95 per cent c.i. 0.881 to 0.899). Conclusion The OAKS prognostic model can identify patients who are not at high risk of postoperative AKI after gastrointestinal surgery with high specificity. Presented to Association of Surgeons in Training (ASiT) International Conference 2018 (Edinburgh, UK), European Society of Coloproctology (ESCP) International Conference 2018 (Nice, France), SARS (Society of Academic and Research Surgery) 2020 (Virtual, UK).
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2474-9842
    Language: English
    Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2902033-5
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  • 2
    In: Chest, Elsevier BV, Vol. 163, No. 4 ( 2023-04), p. 881-890
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0012-3692
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    Language: English
    Publisher: Elsevier BV
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2007244-2
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  • 3
    In: British Journal of Surgery, Oxford University Press (OUP), Vol. 107, No. 8 ( 2020-06-15), p. 1023-1032
    Abstract: This study aimed to determine the impact of preoperative exposure to intravenous contrast for CT and the risk of developing postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods This prospective, multicentre cohort study included adults undergoing gastrointestinal resection, stoma reversal or liver resection. Both elective and emergency procedures were included. Preoperative exposure to intravenous contrast was defined as exposure to contrast administered for the purposes of CT up to 7 days before surgery. The primary endpoint was the rate of AKI within 7 days. Propensity score-matched models were adjusted for patient, disease and operative variables. In a sensitivity analysis, a propensity score-matched model explored the association between preoperative exposure to contrast and AKI in the first 48 h after surgery. Results A total of 5378 patients were included across 173 centres. Overall, 1249 patients (23·2 per cent) received intravenous contrast. The overall rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery was 13·4 per cent (718 of 5378). In the propensity score-matched model, preoperative exposure to contrast was not associated with AKI within 7 days (odds ratio (OR) 0·95, 95 per cent c.i. 0·73 to 1·21; P = 0·669). The sensitivity analysis showed no association between preoperative contrast administration and AKI within 48 h after operation (OR 1·09, 0·84 to 1·41; P = 0·498). Conclusion There was no association between preoperative intravenous contrast administered for CT up to 7 days before surgery and postoperative AKI. Risk of contrast-induced nephropathy should not be used as a reason to avoid contrast-enhanced CT.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0007-1323 , 1365-2168
    Language: English
    Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2006309-X
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Wiley ; 2013
    In:  Pharmaceutical Statistics Vol. 12, No. 2 ( 2013-03), p. 104-113
    In: Pharmaceutical Statistics, Wiley, Vol. 12, No. 2 ( 2013-03), p. 104-113
    Abstract: To quantify uncertainty in a formal manner, statisticians play a vital role in identifying a prior distribution for a Bayesian‐designed clinical trial. However, when expert beliefs are to be used to form the prior, the literature is sparse on how feasible and how reliable it is to elicit beliefs from experts. For late‐stage clinical trials, high importance is placed on reliability; however, feasibility may be equally important in early‐stage trials. This article describes a case study to assess how feasible it is to conduct an elicitation session in a structured manner and to form a probability distribution that would be used in a hypothetical early‐stage trial. The case study revealed that by using a structured approach to planning, training and conduct, it is feasible to elicit expert beliefs and form a probability distribution in a timely manner. We argue that by further increasing the published accounts of elicitation of expert beliefs in drug development, there will be increased confidence in the feasibility of conducting elicitation sessions. Furthermore, this will lead to wider dissemination of the pertinent issues on how to quantify uncertainty to both practicing statisticians and others involved with designing trials in a Bayesian manner. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1539-1604 , 1539-1612
    URL: Issue
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2013
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2163550-X
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  • 5
    In: Pharmaceutical Statistics, Wiley, Vol. 13, No. 1 ( 2014-01), p. 3-12
    Abstract: Bayesian applications in medical product development have recently gained popularity. Despite many advances in Bayesian methodology and computations, increase in application across the various areas of medical product development has been modest. The DIA Bayesian Scientific Working Group (BSWG), which includes representatives from industry, regulatory agencies, and academia, has adopted the vision to ensure Bayesian methods are well understood, accepted more broadly, and appropriately utilized to improve decision making and enhance patient outcomes. As Bayesian applications in medical product development are wide ranging, several sub‐teams were formed to focus on various topics such as patient safety, non‐inferiority, prior specification, comparative effectiveness, joint modeling, program‐wide decision making, analytical tools, and education. The focus of this paper is on the recent effort of the BSWG Education sub‐team to administer a Bayesian survey to statisticians across 17 organizations involved in medical product development. We summarize results of this survey, from which we provide recommendations on how to accelerate progress in Bayesian applications throughout medical product development. The survey results support findings from the literature and provide additional insight on regulatory acceptance of Bayesian methods and information on the need for a Bayesian infrastructure within an organization. The survey findings support the claim that only modest progress in areas of education and implementation has been made recently, despite substantial progress in Bayesian statistical research and software availability. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1539-1604 , 1539-1612
    URL: Issue
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2014
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2083706-9
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  • 6
    In: Blood, American Society of Hematology, Vol. 128, No. 22 ( 2016-12-02), p. 4352-4352
    Abstract: BACKGROUND The evaluation of response to therapy in CLL is widely assessed according to the iwCLL guidelines which define progressive disease (PD) as advancing lymphocytosis, lymphadenopathy, organomegaly, cytopenias or histological transformation (Hallek, Blood, 2008). At the time of PD, considerable heterogeneity exists; patients (pts) with asymptomatic lymphocytosis seem to have a more indolent clinical course than those who progress by other means. On this basis, we hypothesized that the type of PD might impact on subsequent post-progression pt outcomes including the time to next treatment (TTNT) and overall survival (OS). METHODS All analyses were performed on data collected from pts enrolled in the CLL11 trial (NCT01010061), an open-label, randomized, pivotal phase III study comparing the efficacy and safety of obinutuzumab (GA101; GAZYVA) plus chlorambucil (Clb) with rituximab and Clb or Clb alone in treatment-naïve pts with CLL and pre-existing comorbidities (Goede, NEJM, 2014). Pts with defined PD, excluding death, were identified and assigned to 1 of 2 groups according to whether PD was by absolute lymphocyte count (ALC), or other, (non-ALC) causes, as per iwCLL criteria. Individuals could be allocated to only 1 group. To test whether subgroups were balanced at baseline (BL), characteristics between groups were compared for proportional differences using a Pearson chi-square test. Post-progression Kaplan-Meier survival curves for TTNT and OS were plotted by PD type. The log-rank test was used to detect significant differences in the treatment timings and survival distributions between groups, respectively. Group differences in the proportion of pts with cytopenia due to bone marrow (BM) infiltration (excluding autoimmune causes) were tested at BL and the time of PD. Similarly, B symptoms were calculated as the proportion of pts reporting disease-attributable fevers, night sweats or weight loss. Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) data were extracted from the EORTC QLQ-C30 and -CLL16 questionnaires. The mean and mean change scores by progression type were derived from BL and PD assessments. RESULTSOf the 781 pts enrolled in CLL11, progression data were available for 507 (64.9%) subjects. Of these, a total of 329 (64.9%) pts progressed by ALC, while the remaining 178 (35.1%) had PD from an alternative, non-ALC cause. At study BL, there were no differences in the demographics or disease characteristics between groups. The median post-progression TTNT for the ALC group was 373 days (95% CI [320, 449]) versus 120 days (95% CI [101, 209] ) for the non-ALC group, (p 〈 0.0001) (Fig 1). Type of PD was also associated with a better OS in the ALC group (p = 0.0014) but the median time could not be accurately estimated due to insufficient events (Fig 2). A higher proportion of non-ALC pts demonstrated evidence of disease-related BM infiltration at PD (0.38 vs 0.24, p = 0.0013) with anemia (0.24 vs 0.10, p 〈 0.001) and neutropenia (0.16 vs 0.06, p 〈 0.001) representing the greatest differences between groups (Fig 3). Despite a trend towards a higher proportion of B symptoms in the non-ALC group at PD, significance was not achieved (p = 0.0624). Mean absolute HRQoL scores at BL, highlighted trends towards a higher level of functioning (higher scores) and milder physical symptoms (lower scores) in the ALC group. At the time of PD, those progressing by ALC reported clinically meaningful (6 point) higher role and physical functioning and measurably less fatigue, insomnia, dyspnea and pain. Within-group, mean score changes between BL and PD highlighted an overall trend towards improved functioning (QLQ-C30) over the course of treatment in the ALC group and a decline in function in the non-ALC group although differences were small. In general, both groups reported milder disease-related symptoms (QLQ-C30 and -CLL16) at PD with pts in the ALC group showing clinically meaningful improvements in fatigue and appetite. CONCLUSION These data provide the first comprehensive outcome analysis in CLL based on the mode of first progression for pts receiving upfront chemoimmunotherapy. We have shown that progression by ALC is consistently associated with a favourable clinical profile but whether our findings apply to pts in the relapsed setting or to those receiving other novel therapies is yet to be determined. An accurate estimate of survival by PD type might guide physician choice/timing of next treatments. Figure 1 Figure 1. Figure 2 Figure 2. Figure 3 Figure 3. Disclosures Bazeos: Roche: Employment. Gower:Roche Products Ltd: Employment. Swann:Roche: Employment. Trask:Genentech, Inc.: Employment, Equity Ownership. Dixon:Roche Products Limited: Employment, Equity Ownership. Crompton:Roche: Employment. Kinnersley:Roche-Genentech: Employment, Equity Ownership. Al-Sawaf:Gilead: Other: Travel grants. Goede:Janssen: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Gilead: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; GlaxoSmithKline: Honoraria; Roche: Consultancy, Honoraria, Other: Travel grant, Research Funding. Fingerle-Rowson:F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd: Employment, Equity Ownership. Humphrey:Genentech, Inc.: Employment.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0006-4971 , 1528-0020
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    Language: English
    Publisher: American Society of Hematology
    Publication Date: 2016
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  • 7
    In: Blood, American Society of Hematology, Vol. 128, No. 22 ( 2016-12-02), p. 2843-2843
    Abstract: Introduction. Despite considerable efforts towards novel therapeutics research and discovery, outcomes in AML remain poor. Although composite Complete Remission (cCR; CR, CRp, CRi) is routinely used as a measure of therapeutic clinical activity, cCR frequently does not translate to survival benefit. On this basis, the characterization and tracking of minimal residual disease (MRD) has emerged as a tool to help better define the depth of such cCR to offer prognostic utility on AML patients likely to experience survival benefit from a given experimental therapeutic. The MDM2 antagonist idasanutlin has shown promising clinical activity in AML. Idasanutlin enhances p53 activity through antagonism of the MDM2:p53 interaction. Disruption of this protein:protein interaction inhibits MDM2 targeting of p53 for ubiquitination and degradation, thus stabilizing p53 protein to exert tumor suppressor transcriptional regulation and induction of apoptotic pathways. Patients and Methods. Trial NP28679 (NCT01773408) is a Phase 1/1b study evaluating idasanutlin as monotherapy or in combination with cytarabine in relapsed or refractory AML patients with safety as primary and complete remission as secondary endpoints, respectively (Martinelli, EHA, 2016.) Duration of response was available as exploratory clinical data for a subset of patient. Patients' pre-treatment bone marrow aspirate specimens were evaluated by multiparametric flow cytometry using an 18 marker surface antigen-based panel. MRD assessment occurred per protocol recommendation at the time of hematological malignancy response assessment (HMRA) at Day 28 and for those patients initially experiencing cCR at each subsequent HMRA. Further flow cytometry analyses were conducted for expression changes of known p53 regulated proteins in CD45+(dim) blasts correlating with drug exposure, consistent with mechanistic engagement. Results. PFS analyses for cCR patients versus non-CR Kaplan-Meier plots indicate the median for responders is 315d (95%CI: 282, NA) versus non-responders is 43.5d (95%CI: 30, NA). When MRD 〈 1% versus 〉 1% is applied as a cut-point, analytics show a statistical association with median PFS (log-rank p-value 〈 .001) at 367d (95%CI: 219, NA) for 〈 1%MRD versus 〉 1% is 84d (95%CI: 30, NA.) Median MRD values for CR/CRp/CRi vs PR/HI vs PD are 0.42%, 1.79%, and 19.16%, respectively, again consistent with MRD serving as a surrogate for clinical activity (log rank test for trend p-value = .001) Additionally, multiparametric flow cytometry analysis of idasanutlin pharmacodynamic (PD) protein expression changes comparing pretreatment patient blood specimens to 24 hours following first dose administration indicates that increases in both p53 and MDM2 in CD45+(dim) blasts is associated with steady state drug exposure levels ([Spearman's Correlation =0.27; p=.013] and [Spearman's Correlation=0.24; p=.026,] respectively.) Interestingly, these changes in protein expression for p53 and MDM2 are associated with orthologous PD changes in serum protein macrophage inhibitory cytokine 1 (MIC-1) ([Spearman's Correlation=0.23; p=.035] and [Spearman's Correlation=0.22; p=.042,] respectively.) These PD changes are mechanistically consistent with enhanced p53 resulting from diminished MDM2 ubiquitination and degradation of p53. Conclusions. In summary, the results presented here are consistent with multiparametric flow cytometry MRD assessment as an early indication aligning with cCR in relapsed/refractory AML patients treated with idasanutlin. Further, assessment for association with progression-free survival indicates that the lowest quartile patients by MRD flow cytometry measurement ( 〈 1%) are likely to exhibit a pronounced survival benefit over those patients with higher detectable levels of MRD ( 〉 1%). As such, the data presented here support inclusion of MRD assessment by flow cytometry as a prognostic indicator to provide guiding information for assignment of depth of AML patient response. We will continue to monitor this biomarker for diagnostic potential as a prognostic indicator of survival-based outcomes in future randomized clinical studies of idasanutlin. Disclosures Lanza: Roche-Genentech: Employment. Martinelli:Pfizer: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; MSD: Consultancy; Novartis: Speakers Bureau; Amgen: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; Genentech: Consultancy; Celgene: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; Ariad: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; Roche: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; BMS: Speakers Bureau. Yee:Novartis Canada: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding. Jukofsky:Roche Pharma: Employment. Reis:Roche Pharma: Employment. Blotner:Roche Pharma: Employment. Drummond:Pfizer: Honoraria, Speakers Bureau; celgene: Honoraria, Research Funding, Speakers Bureau; Novartis: Honoraria, Research Funding, Speakers Bureau; BMS: Honoraria, Speakers Bureau; Roche: Honoraria, Speakers Bureau. Vey:Sunesis: Honoraria. Dickinson:GlaxoSmithKline: Consultancy, Research Funding. Kelly:Novartis: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; Amgen: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Pharmacyclics: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau. Theron:Roche Pharma: Employment. Venstrom:Roche-Genentech: Employment. Middleton:Roche Pharma: Employment. Chen:Roche Pharma: Employment. Kinnersley:Roche-Genentech: Employment, Equity Ownership. Nichols:Roche Pharma: Employment. Pierceall:Roche Pharma: Employment.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0006-4971 , 1528-0020
    RVK:
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    Language: English
    Publisher: American Society of Hematology
    Publication Date: 2016
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2002
    In:  Drug Information Journal Vol. 36, No. 3 ( 2002-7), p. 571-579
    In: Drug Information Journal, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 36, No. 3 ( 2002-7), p. 571-579
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0092-8615 , 2164-9200
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2002
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2059443-4
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2708397-4
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2015
    In:  Trials Vol. 16, No. S2 ( 2015-12)
    In: Trials, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 16, No. S2 ( 2015-12)
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1745-6215
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2015
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2040523-6
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Frontiers Media SA ; 2023
    In:  Frontiers in Pharmacology Vol. 14 ( 2023-10-3)
    In: Frontiers in Pharmacology, Frontiers Media SA, Vol. 14 ( 2023-10-3)
    Abstract: Background: Preliminary evidence for efficacy in pulmonary sarcoidosis has been shown for efzofitimod. Here we present supportive evidence of efficacy based on an exposure-response analysis. Methods: Data from two studies (Phase 1, N = 24, single dose in healthy volunteers, and Phase 1b/2a, N = 25, multiple doses over 24 weeks in participants with pulmonary sarcoidosis) were used to build a population pharmacokinetic model. Using this model, the relationship between efzofitimod exposure and three prespecified efficacy parameters [mean daily oral corticosteroid (OCS) dose, percent-predicted forced vital capacity (ppFVC) and King’s Sarcoidosis Questionnaire-Lung (KSQ-Lung) score] was explored. Linear regression described the relationship of efzofitimod exposure and OCS reduction, ppFVC and KSQ-Lung score. Logistic regression related efzofitimod exposure to the probability of achieving a minimal clinically important difference for ppFVC and KSQ-Lung score. Due to the small study size, trends (not statistical significance) in relationships are reported. Results: In patients with pulmonary sarcoidosis, as efzofitimod exposure increased, the mean daily OCS dose decreased, and ppFVC and KSQ-Lung score improved over baseline. The slope for all the endpoints by both linear and logistic regression showed an improving trend with increased exposure. Conclusion: These preliminary findings of a positive exposure-response across multiple efficacy endpoints support the claim that proof of concept has been established for the use of efzofitimod in pulmonary sarcoidosis. Clinical Trial Registration: clinicaltrials.gov , identifier NCT03824392
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1663-9812
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2587355-6
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