In:
PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science (PLoS), Vol. 18, No. 4 ( 2022-4-4), p. e1009973-
Abstract:
The drivers behind regional differences of SARS-CoV-2 spread on finer spatio-temporal scales are yet to be fully understood. Here we develop a data-driven modelling approach based on an age-structured compartmental model that compares 116 Austrian regions to a suitably chosen control set of regions to explain variations in local transmission rates through a combination of meteorological factors, non-pharmaceutical interventions and mobility. We find that more than 60% of the observed regional variations can be explained by these factors. Decreasing temperature and humidity, increasing cloudiness, precipitation and the absence of mitigation measures for public events are the strongest drivers for increased virus transmission, leading in combination to a doubling of the transmission rates compared to regions with more favourable weather. We conjecture that regions with little mitigation measures for large events that experience shifts toward unfavourable weather conditions are particularly predisposed as nucleation points for the next seasonal SARS-CoV-2 waves.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
1553-7358
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009973
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009973.g001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009973.g002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009973.g003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009973.t001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009973.t002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009973.t003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009973.s001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009973.s002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009973.s003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009973.s004
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009973.s005
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009973.s006
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009973.s007
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009973.s008
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009973.s009
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009973.s010
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009973.s011
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009973.s012
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009973.s013
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009973.r001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009973.r002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009973.r003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009973.r004
Language:
English
Publisher:
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Publication Date:
2022
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2193340-6
Permalink