Abstract: Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages.

Abstract: Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub ( https://covid19forecasthub.org/ ) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.

Abstract: Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) lactate dehydrogenase was determined in 19 control infants without asphyxia (Group I), 24 infants with perinatal asphyxia (Group II), and 26 asphyxiated infants with seizures (Group III). Mean birthweights, gestational ages, CSF glucose, protein and red blood cells, and the âgés at which the lumbar punctures were performed were not significantly different among the three groups. Mean CSF lactate dehydrogenase was significantly higher in Group III than in Groups I and II. Isoenzyme patterns indicated that the origin of the CSF lactate dehydrogenase was neuronal tissue, or a plasma transudate from increased permeability of the blood‐brain barrier. There were 10 deaths due to anoxic encephalopathy in Group III, but none in Groups I or II. Follow‐up of survivors at 10 to 39 months of age revealed neurological sequelae in three infants in Group I, two in Group II and five in Group III. Mean CSF lactate dehydrogenase in those with sequelae had not been significantly different from that of normal survivors; however, the mean was significantly higher in infants who died with anoxic encephalopathy compared with normal infants. These data indicate that CSF lactate dehydrogenase is significantly elevated in infants with fatal anoxic brain damage, and suggest that determinations may be of prognostic value in non‐fatal cerebral hypoxia. RÉSUMÉ La lactate deshydrogenase du liquide céphalo‐rachidien chez les nourrissons avec asphyxie périnatale La lactate deshydrogenase du liquide cephalo‐rachidien (LCR) a été determinee chez 19 nourrissons controles sans asphyxie (groupe I), chez 24 nourrissons avec asphyxie perinatale (groupe II) et 26 nourrissons asphyxies avec crises (groupe III). La moyenne des poids de naissance, des âgés de gestation, des taux de glucose, proteine et globules rouges dans le LCR et des âgés auxquels la ponction lombaire a été réalisée ne differaient pas significativement entre les trois groups. La moyenne de la lactate deshydrogenase du LCR etait significativement plus elevee dans le groupe III que dans les groupes I et II. Les groupements isoenzymatiques indiquaient que l'origine de la lactate deshydrogenase du LCR etait le tissu neuronal ou un transudat plasmatique a partir d'une perméabilité accrue de la barriere cérébroméningée. Ilyaeudixmortsparencephalopathieanoxiquedanslegroupe III, aucunedanslesgroupes I et II. La surveillance des survivants de 10 a 39 mois a reveledessequelles neurologiqueschez trois nourrissons du groupe I, deux du groupe II et cinq du groupe III. Le taux moyen de la lactate deshydrogenase du LCR chez les nourrissons avec sequelles n'etait pas significativement different de celui des survivants normaux. En revanche, la moyenne etait comparativement plus elevee chez les nourrissons decedes par encephalopathies anoxiques que chez les enfants normaux. Ces donnees indiquent que la lactate déhydrogénase du LCR est significativement elevee chez les nourrissons présentant un dommage cerebral anoxique foetal et suggerent que sa determination peut avoir une valeur pronostique dans l'hypoxie cerebrale non fatale. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG Laktatdehydrogenase im Liquor bei Kindern mit perinataler Asphyxie Bei 19 Kontrollkindern ohne Asphyxie (Gruppe I), 24 Kindern mit perinataler Asphyxie (Gruppe II) und 26 Kindern mit Asphyxie und Krampfanfallen (Gruppe III) wurde die Laktatdehydrogenase im Liquor bestimmt. Folgende Parameter waren bei den drei Gruppen etwa gleich: mittleres Geburtsgewicht, Gestationsalter, Liquorzucker, EiweiB und Leukocyten und das Alter, in dem die Lumbalpunktion durchgefuhrt wurde. Der mittlere Wert fiir die Laktatdehydrogenase war bei Gruppe III signifikant hoher als bei den Gruppen I und II. Isoenzymmuster wiesen darauf hin, daB die Laktatdehydrogenase vom Nervengewebe stammt oder von einem Plasmatranssudat aufgrund erhohter Permeabilitat der Blut‐Hirn‐Schranke. In Gruppe III wurden zehn Todesfalle aufgrund einer anoxischen Encephalopathie verzeichnet, in den Gruppen I und II dagegen keiner. Kontrolluntersuchungen der Uberlebenden im Alter von 10 bis 39 Monaten ergaben bei drei Kindern der Gruppe I, zwei Kindern der Gruppe II und fiinf Kindern der Gruppe III neurologische Folgeer‐scheinungen. Der mittlere Wert fiir die Liquorlaktatdehydrogenase bei den Kindern mit Folgeerscheinungen unterschied sich nicht wesentlich von dem der gesunden Uberlebenden, jedoch war er bei Kindern, die an einer anoxischen Encephalopathie starben, signifikant hoher als bei gesunden Kindern. Diese Daten zeigen, daB die Liquorlaktatdehydrogenase bei Kindern mit todlichem anoxischen Hirnschaden signifikant erhoht ist. Somit kann die Bestimmung der Liquorlaktatdehydrogenase fiir eine todliche cerebrale Hypoxie prognostisch von Bedeutung sein. RESUMEN Lactodesidrogenasa en el liquido cefalorraquideo en lactantes con asfixia perinatal La lactodesidrogenasa en el liquido cefalorraquideo (LCR) fue determinada en 19 nifios control sin asfixia (Grupo I), 24 nifios con asfixia perinatal (Grupo II) y 26 lactantes asfixiados con convulsiones (Grupo III). Los pesos de nacimiento promedios, las edades gestacionales, la glucorraquia, la proteinemia y el contagio de celulas rojas en sangre y las edades en las cuales se realizaban las funciones lumbares no eran significativamente diferentes entre los tres grupos. La lactodesidrogenasa del LCR era significativamente mas alta en el Grupo III que en los Grupos I y II. Los esquemas de isoencimas indicaban que el origen de la lactodesidrogenasa del LCR era el tejido neuronal o bien un transurado plasmatico producido por el aumento de la permeabilidad de la barrera hematoencefalica. Hubo 10 muertes debidas a encefalopatia anoxica en el Grupo III pero ninguno en los Grupos I o II. El curso posterior de los supervivientes a los 10 y 39 meses de edad revelaron secuelas neuroldgicas tres nifios de Grupo I, dos en el Grupo II y cinco en el Grupo III. El promedio de lactodesidrogenasa en LCR en aquellos nifios con secuelas no era significativamente diferente de los supervivientes normales; sin embargo el promedio era significativamente mas alto en los lactantes que murieron con encefalopatia noica en comparacion con los lactantes normales. Estos datos indicaban que la lactodesidrogenasa en el LCR esta elevada significativamente en lactantes con anoxia natal y dafio cerebral, y sugiere que las determinaciones pueden ser de valor prondstico en la hipoxia cerebral no fatal.

Abstract: Tetraethylorthosilicate (TEOS)-crosslinked poly(vinyl alcohol) (PVA) solution was prepared and treated with benzaldehyde 2 sulphonic sodium salt acid (B2SA) for sulfonation. Different contents of graphene were incorporated into B2SA-grafted PVA–TEOS hybrid membrane to improve the membrane stability, mechanical strength, and overall pervaporation performance of the membranes. Membranes were fabricated using the casting technique. Developed membranes were then analyzed for their physicochemical changes by means of Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), scanning electron microscope (SEM), wide-angle X-ray diffraction (WAXD), thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), contact angle analysis (CA), and mechanical strength. The lower d-spacing value observed in WAXD was evidence for the decreased inter-chain distance between the polymer chains. DSC exhibited the enhanced thermal stability of the developed membranes compared to the plane PVA membrane with enhancement in Tg value (106 °C), which was well above the pervaporation experimental temperature. Incorporation of graphene induced higher mechanical strength to the fabricated membranes. Further, the membranes were tested for the pervaporation separation of bioethanol. All the membranes were stable throughout the pervaporation studies, with M-2 G showing the total permeation flux of 11.66 × 10−2 kg/(m2 h) at 30 °C.