In:
Nature Communications, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 14, No. 1 ( 2023-01-18)
Abstract:
Large-scale events like the UEFA Euro 2020 football (soccer) championship offer a unique opportunity to quantify the impact of gatherings on the spread of COVID-19, as the number and dates of matches played by participating countries resembles a randomized study. Using Bayesian modeling and the gender imbalance in COVID-19 data, we attribute 840,000 (95% CI: [0.39M, 1.26M]) COVID-19 cases across 12 countries to the championship. The impact depends non-linearly on the initial incidence, the reproduction number R , and the number of matches played. The strongest effects are seen in Scotland and England, where as much as 10,000 primary cases per million inhabitants occur from championship-related gatherings. The average match-induced increase in R was 0.46 [0.18, 0.75] on match days, but important matches caused an increase as large as +3. Altogether, our results provide quantitative insights that help judge and mitigate the impact of large-scale events on pandemic spread.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
2041-1723
DOI:
10.1038/s41467-022-35512-x
Language:
English
Publisher:
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Publication Date:
2023
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2553671-0
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