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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2006
    In:  Climate Dynamics Vol. 26, No. 7-8 ( 2006-6), p. 765-780
    In: Climate Dynamics, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 26, No. 7-8 ( 2006-6), p. 765-780
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0930-7575 , 1432-0894
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2006
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 382992-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1471747-5
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2019
    In:  Climate Dynamics Vol. 53, No. 7-8 ( 2019-10), p. 4701-4714
    In: Climate Dynamics, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 53, No. 7-8 ( 2019-10), p. 4701-4714
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0930-7575 , 1432-0894
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 382992-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1471747-5
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2023
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 36, No. 19 ( 2023-10-01), p. 6763-6775
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 36, No. 19 ( 2023-10-01), p. 6763-6775
    Abstract: Southeastern Australia experienced an extreme heatwave event from 27 January to 8 February 2009, which culminated in the devastating “Black Saturday” bushfires that led to hundreds of human casualties and major economic losses in the state of Victoria. This study investigates the causes of the heatwave event, its prediction, and the role of anthropogenic climate change using a dynamical subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecast system. We show that the intense positive temperature anomalies over southeastern Australia were associated with the persistent high pressure system over the Tasman Sea and a low pressure anomaly over southern Australia, which favored horizontal warm-air advection from the lower latitudes to the region. Enhanced convection over the tropical western Pacific and northern Australia due to weak La Niña conditions appear to have played a role in strengthening the high pressure anomalies over the Tasman Sea. The observed climate conditions are largely reproduced in the hindcast of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator–Seasonal prediction system version 1 (ACCESS-S1). The model skillfully predicts the spatial characteristics and relative intensity of the heatwave event at a 10-day lead time. A climate attribution forecast experiment with low atmospheric CO 2 and counterfactual cold ocean–atmospheric initial conditions suggests that the enhanced greenhouse effect contributed about 3°C warming of the predicted event. This study provides an example of how a S2S prediction system can be used not only for multiweek prediction of an extreme event and its climate drivers, but also for the attribution to anthropogenic climate change.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    RVK:
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 4
    In: Monthly Weather Review, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 142, No. 1 ( 2014-01-01), p. 343-363
    Abstract: The identification of extratropical fronts in reanalyses and climate models is an important climate diagnostic that aids dynamical understanding and model verification. This study compares six frontal identification methods that are applied to June and July reanalysis data over the Central Wheatbelt of southwest Western Australia for 1979–2006. Much of the winter rainfall over this region originates from frontal systems. Five of the methods use automated algorithms. These make use of different approaches, based on shifts in 850-hPa winds (WND), gradients of temperature (TGR) and wet-bulb potential temperature (WPT), pattern matching (PMM), and a self-organizing map (SOM). The sixth method was a manual synoptic technique (MAN). On average, about 50% of rain days were associated with fronts in most schemes (although methods PMM and SOM exhibited a lower percentage). On a daily basis, most methods identify the same systems more than 50% of the time, and over the 28-yr period the seasonal time series correlate strongly. The association with rainfall is less clear. The WND time series of seasonal frontal counts correlate significantly with Central Wheatbelt rainfall. All automated methods identify fronts on some days that are classified as cutoff lows in the manual analysis, which will impact rainfall correlations. The front numbers identified on all days by the automated methods decline from 1979 to 2006 (but only the TGR and WPT trends were significant at the 10% level). The results here highlight that automated techniques have value in understanding frontal behavior and can be used to identify the changes in the frequency of frontal systems through time.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-0644 , 1520-0493
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2014
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2033056-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 202616-8
    SSG: 14
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2019
    In:  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 100, No. 1 ( 2019-01), p. S111-S117
    In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 100, No. 1 ( 2019-01), p. S111-S117
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0003-0007 , 1520-0477
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2029396-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 419957-1
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2018
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 45, No. 18 ( 2018-09-28), p. 9981-9986
    In: Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 45, No. 18 ( 2018-09-28), p. 9981-9986
    Abstract: Model orography is critical for accurate representation of the Australian West Coast Trough In simulations without topography, summer rainfall and midtroposphere temperature are reduced over Western Australia
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0094-8276 , 1944-8007
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021599-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 7403-2
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    CSIRO Publishing ; 2019
    In:  Proceedings of the Royal Society of Victoria Vol. 131, No. 1 ( 2019), p. 53-
    In: Proceedings of the Royal Society of Victoria, CSIRO Publishing, Vol. 131, No. 1 ( 2019), p. 53-
    Abstract: The Australian Bureau of Meteorology monitors, researches, predicts and communicates Australia’s weather and climate. Australia’s mean temperature has risen by over 1°C since 1910, leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events. Extreme heat can profoundly impact human health, infrastructure and the environment. Research conducted at the Bureau and elsewhere shows that climate change is impacting the intensity and frequency of extreme heat events. One way that the Bureau has responded to this challenge is by providing a forecast service specifically targeted at identifying heatwaves. The heatwave service identifies areas expected to be impacted by three or more consecutive days of unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures on a national map. The service has been developed with clear impact-based categories of heatwave severity. This heatwave service is now available operationally on the Bureau’s website during the heatwave season (nominally November to March) and is proving a valuable tool for engaging the community, including emergency services, with forecasts and warnings of extreme heat.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0035-9211
    Language: English
    Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2912781-6
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2711255-X
    SSG: 11
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    CSIRO Publishing ; 2018
    In:  Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science Vol. 68, No. 1 ( 2018), p. 41-
    In: Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science, CSIRO Publishing, Vol. 68, No. 1 ( 2018), p. 41-
    Abstract: There is a general understanding that heavy rainfall will suppress subsequent near-surface temperatures. However, there have been few studies describing this effect. In this study the top 10 % of monthly rainfall, by season and by grid point over Australia is used to represent extended periods of heavy rainfall (termed 'very wet'). The corresponding daily maximum average monthly temperature (Tmax) during those months are shown to be cooler by at least 0.5 °C almost everywhere across Australia, in every season in both observation-based data and climate models. Cooler than average Tmax conditions are then evident for the following four months in some places, particularly following very wet months in winter. The average monthly daily minimum temperature (Tmin), unlike Tmax, is warmer than average during very wet months in winter,by up to 1.5 °C in the east of the continent in both observations and the model mean. Warmer Tmin conditions are also evident during very wet months in the south-east and across the south of the continent in other seasons, particularly in observations. Tmin is cooler than average in very wet months in summer elsewhere across the continent. In subsequent months, Tmin then tends to be cooler than average. It is suspected that increased cloud during the first month keeps Tmin warm, while wetter soils contribute to cooler Tmin during subsequent months. These results indicate that indeed heavy, extended rainfall can have a cooling influence on subsequent temperature, and, following winter, this can have an effect right through to the following summer. The Tmax anomalies at the end of the century under RCP8.5 are similar to those under the current climate, except in future there are relatively cooler conditions in the south during very wet months in winter and in the month following.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2206-5865
    Language: English
    Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2982006-6
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    CSIRO Publishing ; 2021
    In:  Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science Vol. 71, No. 1 ( 2021-3-16), p. 92-109
    In: Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science, CSIRO Publishing, Vol. 71, No. 1 ( 2021-3-16), p. 92-109
    Abstract: Climate scientists routinely rely on averaging over time or space to simplify complex information and to concisely communicate findings. Currently, no consistent definitions of ‘warm’ or ‘cool’ seasons for southern Australia exist, making comparisons across studies difficult. Similarly, numerous climate studies in Australia use either arbitrarily defined areas or the Natural Resource Management (NRM) clusters to perform spatial averaging. While the NRM regions were informed by temperature and rainfall information, they remain somewhat arbitrary. Here we use weather type influence on rainfall and clustering methods to quantitatively define climatic regions and seasons over southern Australia. Three methods are explored: k-means clustering and two agglomerative clustering methods, Ward linkage and average linkage. K-means was found to be preferred in temporal clustering, while the average linkage method was preferred for spatial clustering. For southern Australia as a whole, we define the cool season as April–September and warm season as October–March, though we note that a three-season split may provide more nuanced climate analysis. We also show that different regions across southern Australia experience different seasons and demonstrate the changing spatial influence of weather types with the seasons, which may aid regionally or seasonally specific climate analysis. Division of southern Australia into 15 climatic regions shows localised agreement with the NRM clusters where distinct differences in rainfall amounts exist. However, the climate regions defined here better represent the importance of topographical aspect on weather type influence and the inland extent of particular weather types. We suggest that the use of these regions would provide consistent climate analysis across studies if widely adopted. A key requirement for climate scientists is the simplification of data sets into both seasonally or regionally averaged subsets. This simplification, by grouping like regions or seasons, is done for a number of reasons both scientific and practical, including to help understand patterns of variability, underlying drivers and trends in climate and weather, to communicate large amounts of data concisely, to reduce the amount of data required for processing (which becomes increasingly important with higher resolution climate model output), or to more simply draw a physical boundary between regions for other purposes, such as flora and fauna habitat analysis, appropriate agricultural practices or water management.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2206-5865
    Language: English
    Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2982006-6
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    CSIRO Publishing ; 2016
    In:  Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science Vol. 66, No. 4 ( 2016), p. 402-
    In: Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science, CSIRO Publishing, Vol. 66, No. 4 ( 2016), p. 402-
    Abstract: Motivated by the important impacts of extreme rainfall, this study extends the CSIRO and BoM (2015) analyses and projections of 20-year means and daily extremes to rainfall on the monthly timescale. Frequency distributions for monthly rainfall rates simulated by 40 CMIP5 models for the 1986-2005 period are compared with those from the AWAP 0.25° gridded observational data. Distributions spatially-averaged over Australian regions provide a signature of seasonal rainfall. Composites of months in the top and lowest deciles for each grid point and each of the four seasons are then evaluated, along with the frequency of rainfall rates exceeding thresholds ranging from 0.5 mm d-1 to 8 mm d-1.The simulated changes by 2080-2099 under the RCP8.5 scenario for the various rainfall statistics are assessed. Maps of the ensemble mean of changes of the lowest and top deciles, as a percentage of the 1986-2005 base, partly reflect the tendency for increased mean rain in summer and autumn, with decreases in winter and spring. There is also a change in the frequency distribution, with the top decile rainfall tending to increase and the lowest decile to decrease. Bar graphs are used to represent the range of change across the models, for each of four seasons and four regions. In most cases the bars for each statistic cover both declines and increases, but there is again a shift towards the positive in the progression from lowest decile to top decile. The changes are consistent with a broadening of the distribution of monthly amounts. Model spatial resolution is not a major influence on the changes. These projections for monthly rainfall statistics should be applicable to a range of climate impacts.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2206-5865
    Language: English
    Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
    Publication Date: 2016
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2982006-6
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