In:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 109, No. 32 ( 2012-08-07), p. 12911-12915
Abstract:
At the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference in Cancun, in November 2010, the Heads of State reached an agreement on the aim of limiting the global temperature rise to 2 °C relative to preindustrial levels. They recognized that long-term future warming is primarily constrained by cumulative anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, that deep cuts in global emissions are required, and that action based on equity must be taken to meet this objective. However, negotiations on emission reduction among countries are increasingly fraught with difficulty, partly because of arguments about the responsibility for the ongoing temperature rise. Simulations with two earth-system models (NCAR/CESM and BNU-ESM) demonstrate that developed countries had contributed about 60–80%, developing countries about 20–40%, to the global temperature rise, upper ocean warming, and sea-ice reduction by 2005. Enacting pledges made at Cancun with continuation to 2100 leads to a reduction in global temperature rise relative to business as usual with a 1/3–2/3 (CESM 33–67%, BNU-ESM 35–65%) contribution from developed and developing countries, respectively. To prevent a temperature rise by 2 °C or more in 2100, it is necessary to fill the gap with more ambitious mitigation efforts.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
0027-8424
,
1091-6490
DOI:
10.1073/pnas.1203282109
Language:
English
Publisher:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Publication Date:
2012
detail.hit.zdb_id:
209104-5
detail.hit.zdb_id:
1461794-8
SSG:
11
SSG:
12
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