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  • 1
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    Validation of the OAKS prognostic model for acute kidney injury after gastrointestinal surgery
    Oxford University Press (OUP) ; 2022
    In:  BJS Open Vol. 6, No. 1 ( 2022-01-06)
    Details
    In: BJS Open, Oxford University Press (OUP), Vol. 6, No. 1 ( 2022-01-06)
    Abstract: Postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common complication of major gastrointestinal surgery with an impact on short- and long-term survival. No validated system for risk stratification exists for this patient group. This study aimed to validate externally a prognostic model for AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery in two multicentre cohort studies. Methods The Outcomes After Kidney injury in Surgery (OAKS) prognostic model was developed to predict risk of AKI in the 7 days after surgery using six routine datapoints (age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker). Validation was performed within two independent cohorts: a prospective multicentre, international study (‘IMAGINE’) of patients undergoing elective colorectal surgery (2018); and a retrospective regional cohort study (‘Tayside’) in major abdominal surgery (2011–2015). Multivariable logistic regression was used to predict risk of AKI, with multiple imputation used to account for data missing at random. Prognostic accuracy was assessed for patients at high risk (greater than 20 per cent) of postoperative AKI. Results In the validation cohorts, 12.9 per cent of patients (661 of 5106) in IMAGINE and 14.7 per cent (106 of 719 patients) in Tayside developed 7-day postoperative AKI. Using the OAKS model, 558 patients (9.6 per cent) were classified as high risk. Less than 10 per cent of patients classified as low-risk developed AKI in either cohort (negative predictive value greater than 0.9). Upon external validation, the OAKS model retained an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curve of range 0.655–0.681 (Tayside 95 per cent c.i. 0.596 to 0.714; IMAGINE 95 per cent c.i. 0.659 to 0.703), sensitivity values range 0.323–0.352 (IMAGINE 95 per cent c.i. 0.281 to 0.368; Tayside 95 per cent c.i. 0.253 to 0.461), and specificity range 0.881–0.890 (Tayside 95 per cent c.i. 0.853 to 0.905; IMAGINE 95 per cent c.i. 0.881 to 0.899). Conclusion The OAKS prognostic model can identify patients who are not at high risk of postoperative AKI after gastrointestinal surgery with high specificity. Presented to Association of Surgeons in Training (ASiT) International Conference 2018 (Edinburgh, UK), European Society of Coloproctology (ESCP) International Conference 2018 (Nice, France), SARS (Society of Academic and Research Surgery) 2020 (Virtual, UK).
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2474-9842
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1093/bjsopen/zrab150
    Language: English
    Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
    Publication Date: 2022
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  • 2
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    Impact of postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery on 1-year survival and renal outcomes: a national multicentre cohort study
    Oxford University Press (OUP) ; 2021
    In:  BJS Open Vol. 5, No. 6 ( 2021-11-09)
    Details
    In: BJS Open, Oxford University Press (OUP), Vol. 5, No. 6 ( 2021-11-09)
    Abstract: The intermediate-term impact of acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients after major gastrointestinal and liver surgery has not been well characterized. This study aimed to evaluate the 1-year mortality rate and renal outcomes associated with postoperative AKI in a national prospective cohort. Methods This prospective multicentre, observational cohort with 1-year postoperative follow-up included adults undergoing major gastrointestinal and liver surgery across the UK and Ireland between 23 September and 18 November 2015. AKI was defined according to Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) criteria. The primary outcome was death at 1-year after surgery, and the secondary outcome was Major Adverse Kidney Events (MAKE-365). Cox proportionate and multilevel logistic regression were used to account for case mix. Results Of 5745 patients across 173 centres, 1-year follow-up data was completed for 3504 patients (62.2 per cent, 126 centres), with attrition largely explained by centre non-participation (63.1 per cent). Some 13.6 per cent (475 of 3504) patients developed AKI by 7 days after surgery (stage 1: 9.2 per cent; stage 2/3: 4.3 per cent). At 1 year, 10.8 per cent (378 patients) experienced a MAKE-365 endpoint (303 patients had died, 61 had renal replacement therapy and 78 had renal dysfunction). Patients who experienced AKI by 7 days after surgery had a higher hazard of death at 1 year for KDIGO stage 1 (hazard ratio 1.50 (95 per cent c.i. 1.08 to 2.08), P = 0.016) and KDIGO stage 2/3 (hazard ratio 2.96 (95 per cent c.i. 2.02 to 4.33), P & lt; 0.001). Both KDIGO stage 1 (odds ratio 2.09 (95 per cent c.i. 1.50 to 2.92), P & lt; 0.001) and stage 2/3 (odds ratio 9.26 (95 per cent c.i. 6.31 to 13.59), P & lt; 0.001) AKI were independently associated with MAKE-365. Conclusion AKI events within 7 days after gastrointestinal or liver surgery are associated with significantly worse survival and renal outcomes at 1 year.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2474-9842
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1093/bjsopen/zrab134
    Language: English
    Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
    Publication Date: 2021
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  • 3
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    Perioperative intravenous contrast administration and the incidence of acute kidney injury after major gastrointestinal surgery: prospective, multicentre cohort study
    Oxford University Press (OUP) ; 2020
    In:  British Journal of Surgery Vol. 107, No. 8 ( 2020-06-15), p. 1023-1032
    Details
    In: British Journal of Surgery, Oxford University Press (OUP), Vol. 107, No. 8 ( 2020-06-15), p. 1023-1032
    Abstract: This study aimed to determine the impact of preoperative exposure to intravenous contrast for CT and the risk of developing postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods This prospective, multicentre cohort study included adults undergoing gastrointestinal resection, stoma reversal or liver resection. Both elective and emergency procedures were included. Preoperative exposure to intravenous contrast was defined as exposure to contrast administered for the purposes of CT up to 7 days before surgery. The primary endpoint was the rate of AKI within 7 days. Propensity score-matched models were adjusted for patient, disease and operative variables. In a sensitivity analysis, a propensity score-matched model explored the association between preoperative exposure to contrast and AKI in the first 48 h after surgery. Results A total of 5378 patients were included across 173 centres. Overall, 1249 patients (23·2 per cent) received intravenous contrast. The overall rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery was 13·4 per cent (718 of 5378). In the propensity score-matched model, preoperative exposure to contrast was not associated with AKI within 7 days (odds ratio (OR) 0·95, 95 per cent c.i. 0·73 to 1·21; P = 0·669). The sensitivity analysis showed no association between preoperative contrast administration and AKI within 48 h after operation (OR 1·09, 0·84 to 1·41; P = 0·498). Conclusion There was no association between preoperative intravenous contrast administered for CT up to 7 days before surgery and postoperative AKI. Risk of contrast-induced nephropathy should not be used as a reason to avoid contrast-enhanced CT.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0007-1323 , 1365-2168
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1002/bjs.11453
    Language: English
    Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
    Publication Date: 2020
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  • 4
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    Correction: The Cholecystectomy As A Day Case (CAAD) Score: A Validated Score of Preoperative Predictors of Successful Day-Case Cholecystectomy Using the CholeS Data Set
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2023
    In:  World Journal of Surgery Vol. 47, No. 4 ( 2023-04), p. 1082-1082
    Details
    In: World Journal of Surgery, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 47, No. 4 ( 2023-04), p. 1082-1082
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0364-2313 , 1432-2323
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1007/s00268-023-06911-y
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2023
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  • 5
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    Cost-effectiveness of emergency versus delayed laparoscopic cholecystectomy for acute gallbladder pathology
    Oxford University Press (OUP) ; 2016
    In:  British Journal of Surgery Vol. 104, No. 1 ( 2016-12-21), p. 98-107
    Details
    In: British Journal of Surgery, Oxford University Press (OUP), Vol. 104, No. 1 ( 2016-12-21), p. 98-107
    Abstract: The optimal timing of cholecystectomy for patients admitted with acute gallbladder pathology is unclear. Some studies have shown that emergency cholecystectomy during the index admission can reduce length of hospital stay with similar rates of conversion to open surgery, complications and mortality compared with a ‘delayed’ operation following discharge. Others have reported that cholecystectomy during the index acute admission results in higher morbidity, extended length of stay and increased costs. This study examined the cost-effectiveness of emergency versus delayed cholecystectomy for acute benign gallbladder disease. Methods Using data from a prospective population-based cohort study examining the outcomes of cholecystectomy in the UK and Ireland, a model-based cost–utility analysis was conducted from the perspective of the UK National Health Service, with a 1-year time horizon for costs and outcomes. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was used to investigate the impact of parameter uncertainty on the results obtained from the model. Results Emergency cholecystectomy was found to be less costly (£4570 versus £4720; €5484 versus €5664) and more effective (0·8868 versus 0·8662 QALYs) than delayed cholecystectomy. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that the emergency strategy is more than 60 per cent likely to be cost-effective across willingness-to-pay values for the QALY from £0 to £100 000 (€0–120 000). Conclusion Emergency cholecystectomy is less costly and more effective than delayed cholecystectomy. This approach is likely to be beneficial to patients in terms of improved health outcomes and to the healthcare provider owing to the reduced costs.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0007-1323 , 1365-2168
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1002/bjs.10317
    Language: English
    Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
    Publication Date: 2016
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  • 6
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    Population-based cohort study of variation in the use of emergency cholecystectomy for benign gallbladder diseases
    Oxford University Press (OUP) ; 2016
    In:  British Journal of Surgery Vol. 103, No. 12 ( 2016-11-01), p. 1716-1726
    Details
    In: British Journal of Surgery, Oxford University Press (OUP), Vol. 103, No. 12 ( 2016-11-01), p. 1716-1726
    Abstract: The aims of this prospective population-based cohort study were to identify the patient and hospital characteristics associated with emergency cholecystectomy, and the influences of these in determining variations between hospitals. Methods Data were collected for consecutive patients undergoing cholecystectomy in acute UK and Irish hospitals between 1 March and 1 May 2014. Potential explanatory variables influencing the performance of emergency cholecystectomy were analysed by means of multilevel, multivariable logistic regression modelling using a two-level hierarchical structure with patients (level 1) nested within hospitals (level 2). Results Data were collected on 4744 cholecystectomies from 165 hospitals. Increasing age, lower ASA fitness grade, biliary colic, the need for further imaging (magnetic retrograde cholangiopancreatography), endoscopic interventions (endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography) and admission to a non-biliary centre significantly reduced the likelihood of an emergency cholecystectomy being performed. The multilevel model was used to calculate the probability of receiving an emergency cholecystectomy for a woman aged 40 years or over with an ASA grade of I or II and a BMI of at least 25·0 kg/m2, who presented with acute cholecystitis with an ultrasound scan showing a thick-walled gallbladder and a normal common bile duct. The mean predicted probability of receiving an emergency cholecystectomy was 0·52 (95 per cent c.i. 0·45 to 0·57). The predicted probabilities ranged from 0·02 to 0·95 across the 165 hospitals, demonstrating significant variation between hospitals. Conclusion Patients with similar characteristics presenting to different hospitals with acute gallbladder pathology do not receive comparable care.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0007-1323 , 1365-2168
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1002/bjs.10288
    Language: English
    Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
    Publication Date: 2016
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  • 7
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    Colorectal Endoscopic Stenting Trial (CReST) for obstructing left-sided colorectal cancer: randomized clinical trial
    Oxford University Press (OUP) ; 2022
    In:  British Journal of Surgery Vol. 109, No. 11 ( 2022-10-14), p. 1073-1080
    Details
    In: British Journal of Surgery, Oxford University Press (OUP), Vol. 109, No. 11 ( 2022-10-14), p. 1073-1080
    Abstract: Colorectal cancer often presents with obstruction needing urgent, potentially life-saving decompression. The comparative efficacy and safety of endoluminal stenting versus emergency surgery as initial treatment for such patients is uncertain. Methods Patients with left-sided colonic obstruction and radiological features of carcinoma were randomized to endoluminal stenting using a combined endoscopic/fluoroscopic technique followed by elective surgery 1–4 weeks later, or surgical decompression with or without tumour resection. Treatment allocation was via a central randomization service using a minimization procedure stratified by curative intent, primary tumour site, and severity score (Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation). Co-primary outcome measures were duration of hospital stay and 30-day mortality. Secondary outcomes were stoma formation, stenting completion and complication rates, perioperative morbidity, 6-month survival, 3-year recurrence, resource use, adherence to chemotherapy, and quality of life. Analyses were undertaken by intention to treat. Results Between 23 April 2009 and 22 December 2014, 245 patients from 39 hospitals were randomized. Stenting was attempted in 119 of 123 allocated patients (96.7 per cent), achieving relief of obstruction in 98 of 119 (82.4 per cent). For the 89 per cent treated with curative intent, there were no significant differences in 30-day postoperative mortality (3.6 per cent (4 of 110) versus 5.6 per cent (6 of 107); P = 0.48), or duration of hospital stay (median 19 (i.q.r. 11–34) versus 18 (10–28) days; P = 0.94) between stenting followed by delayed elective surgery and emergency surgery. Among patients undergoing potentially curative treatment, stoma formation occurred less frequently in those allocated to stenting than those allocated to immediate surgery (47 of 99 (47.5 per cent) versus 72 of 106 (67.9 per cent); P = 0.003). There were no significant differences in perioperative morbidity, critical care use, quality of life, 3-year recurrence or mortality between treatment groups. Conclusion Stenting as a bridge to surgery reduces stoma formation without detrimental effects. Registration number: ISRCTN13846816 (http://www.controlled-trials.com).
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0007-1323 , 1365-2168
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1093/bjs/znac141
    Language: English
    Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
    Publication Date: 2022
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  • 8
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    Death following pulmonary complications of surgery before and during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
    Oxford University Press (OUP) ; 2021
    In:  British Journal of Surgery Vol. 108, No. 12 ( 2021-12-01), p. 1448-1464
    Details
    In: British Journal of Surgery, Oxford University Press (OUP), Vol. 108, No. 12 ( 2021-12-01), p. 1448-1464
    Abstract: This study aimed to determine the impact of pulmonary complications on death after surgery both before and during the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. Methods This was a patient-level, comparative analysis of two, international prospective cohort studies: one before the pandemic (January–October 2019) and the second during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic (local emergence of COVID-19 up to 19 April 2020). Both included patients undergoing elective resection of an intra-abdominal cancer with curative intent across five surgical oncology disciplines. Patient selection and rates of 30-day postoperative pulmonary complications were compared. The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative mortality. Mediation analysis using a natural-effects model was used to estimate the proportion of deaths during the pandemic attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Results This study included 7402 patients from 50 countries; 3031 (40.9 per cent) underwent surgery before and 4371 (59.1 per cent) during the pandemic. Overall, 4.3 per cent (187 of 4371) developed postoperative SARS-CoV-2 in the pandemic cohort. The pulmonary complication rate was similar (7.1 per cent (216 of 3031) versus 6.3 per cent (274 of 4371); P = 0.158) but the mortality rate was significantly higher (0.7 per cent (20 of 3031) versus 2.0 per cent (87 of 4371); P  & lt; 0.001) among patients who had surgery during the pandemic. The adjusted odds of death were higher during than before the pandemic (odds ratio (OR) 2.72, 95 per cent c.i. 1.58 to 4.67; P  & lt; 0.001). In mediation analysis, 54.8 per cent of excess postoperative deaths during the pandemic were estimated to be attributable to SARS-CoV-2 (OR 1.73, 1.40 to 2.13; P  & lt; 0.001). Conclusion Although providers may have selected patients with a lower risk profile for surgery during the pandemic, this did not mitigate the likelihood of death through SARS-CoV-2 infection. Care providers must act urgently to protect surgical patients from SARS-CoV-2 infection.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0007-1323 , 1365-2168
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1093/bjs/znab336
    Language: English
    Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
    Publication Date: 2021
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  • 9
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    Population-based cohort study of outcomes following cholecystectomy for benign gallbladder diseases
    Oxford University Press (OUP) ; 2016
    In:  British Journal of Surgery Vol. 103, No. 12 ( 2016-11-01), p. 1704-1715
    Details
    In: British Journal of Surgery, Oxford University Press (OUP), Vol. 103, No. 12 ( 2016-11-01), p. 1704-1715
    Abstract: The aim was to describe the management of benign gallbladder disease and identify characteristics associated with all-cause 30-day readmissions and complications in a prospective population-based cohort. Methods Data were collected on consecutive patients undergoing cholecystectomy in acute UK and Irish hospitals between 1 March and 1 May 2014. Potential explanatory variables influencing all-cause 30-day readmissions and complications were analysed by means of multilevel, multivariable logistic regression modelling using a two-level hierarchical structure with patients (level 1) nested within hospitals (level 2). Results Data were collected on 8909 patients undergoing cholecystectomy from 167 hospitals. Some 1451 cholecystectomies (16·3 per cent) were performed as an emergency, 4165 (46·8 per cent) as elective operations, and 3293 patients (37·0 per cent) had had at least one previous emergency admission, but had surgery on a delayed basis. The readmission and complication rates at 30 days were 7·1 per cent (633 of 8909) and 10·8 per cent (962 of 8909) respectively. Both readmissions and complications were independently associated with increasing ASA fitness grade, duration of surgery, and increasing numbers of emergency admissions with gallbladder disease before cholecystectomy. No identifiable hospital characteristics were linked to readmissions and complications. Conclusion Readmissions and complications following cholecystectomy are common and associated with patient and disease characteristics.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0007-1323 , 1365-2168
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1002/bjs.10287
    Language: English
    Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
    Publication Date: 2016
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  • 10
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    The Cholecystectomy As A Day Case (CAAD) Score: A Validated Score of Preoperative Predictors of Successful Day-Case Cholecystectomy Using the CholeS Data Set
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2019
    In:  World Journal of Surgery Vol. 43, No. 8 ( 2019-08-15), p. 1928-1934
    Details
    In: World Journal of Surgery, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 43, No. 8 ( 2019-08-15), p. 1928-1934
    Abstract: Day-case surgery is associated with significant patient and cost benefits. However, only 43% of cholecystectomy patients are discharged home the same day. One hypothesis is day-case cholecystectomy rates, defined as patients discharged the same day as their operation, may be improved by better assessment of patients using standard preoperative variables. Methods Data were extracted from a prospectively collected data set of cholecystectomy patients from 166 UK and Irish hospitals (CholeS). Cholecystectomies performed as elective procedures were divided into main (75%) and validation (25%) data sets. Preoperative predictors were identified, and a risk score of failed day case was devised using multivariate logistic regression. Receiver operating curve analysis was used to validate the score in the validation data set. Results Of the 7426 elective cholecystectomies performed, 49% of these were discharged home the same day. Same-day discharge following cholecystectomy was less likely with older patients (OR 0.18, 95% CI 0.15–0.23), higher ASA scores (OR 0.19, 95% CI 0.15–0.23), complicated cholelithiasis (OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.48), male gender (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.58–0.74), previous acute gallstone-related admissions (OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.48–0.60) and preoperative endoscopic intervention (OR 0.40, 95% CI 0.34–0.47). The CAAD score was developed using these variables. When applied to the validation subgroup, a CAAD score of ≤5 was associated with 80.8% successful day-case cholecystectomy compared with 19.2% associated with a CAAD score 〉 5 (p  〈  0.001). Conclusions The CAAD score which utilises data readily available from clinic letters and electronic sources can predict same-day discharges following cholecystectomy.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0364-2313 , 1432-2323
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1007/s00268-019-04981-5
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2019
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