In:
Hormone Research in Paediatrics, S. Karger AG, Vol. 66, No. 1 ( 2006), p. 13-16
Abstract:
〈 i 〉 Background: 〈 /i 〉 Prediction models, e.g. for prediction of response to growth hormone treatment, need validation in appropriate independent cohorts, comparing predicted and observed outcomes. In a previous validation of a model for predicting the first-year response to growth hormone treatment in children with idiopathic growth hormone deficiency, overfitting was observed. We modified the prediction formula and now report validation of this modified model. 〈 i 〉 Patients and Methods: 〈 /i 〉 The modified and original prediction models were applied to a group of patients selected from Lilly’s GeNeSIS database using the same inclusion and exclusion criteria as for the original model. For both prediction methods, observed first-year height velocity was plotted vs. predicted height velocity in a calibration plot. For a valid prediction, the regression line should correspond to the line of identity (observed outcome is equal to predicted outcome); the regression lines for each prediction model were tested for significant differences from this line of identity. 〈 i 〉 Results: 〈 /i 〉 The number of patients fulfilling the criteria was 226. The regression line in the calibration plot of the modified model was not significantly different from the line of identity (p = 0.43), in contrast to the original model (p 〈 0.001). For the modified model the mean (SD) prediction error was –0.11 (2.05) cm/year and for the original model 0.28 (2.11) cm/year. 〈 i 〉 Conclusion: 〈 /i 〉 The modified prediction method, obtained after calibration of the original model, performs well in an independent patient sample and gives more accurate predictions than the original model.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
1663-2818
,
1663-2826
Language:
English
Publisher:
S. Karger AG
Publication Date:
2006
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2540224-9
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