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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Fire-catalyzed vegetation shifts in ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir forests of the western United States
    IOP Publishing ; 2020
    In:  Environmental Research Letters Vol. 15, No. 10 ( 2020-10-01), p. 1040b8-
    Details
    In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 15, No. 10 ( 2020-10-01), p. 1040b8-
    Abstract: Increased wildfire activity combined with warm and dry post-fire conditions may undermine the mechanisms maintaining forest resilience to wildfires, potentially causing ecosystem transitions, or fire-catalyzed vegetation shifts. Stand-replacing fire is especially likely to catalyze vegetation shifts expected from climate change, by killing mature trees that are less sensitive to climate than juveniles. To understand the vulnerability of forests to fire-catalyzed vegetation shifts it is critical to identify both where fires will burn with stand-replacing severity and where climate conditions limit seedling recruitment. We used an extensive dendrochronological dataset to model the influence of seasonal climate on post-fire recruitment probability for ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir. We applied this model to project annual recruitment probability in the US intermountain west under contemporary and future climate conditions, which we compared to modeled probability of stand-replacing fire. We categorized areas as ‘vulnerable to fire-catalyzed vegetation shifts,’ if they were likely to burn at stand-replacing severity, if a fire were to occur, and had post-fire climate conditions unsuitable for tree recruitment. Climate suitability for recruitment declined over time in all ecoregions: 21% and 15% of the range of ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir, respectively, had climate conditions unsuitable for recruitment in the 1980s, whereas these values increased to 61% (ponderosa pine) and 34% (Douglas-fir) for the future climate scenario. Less area was vulnerable to fire-catalyzed vegetation shifts, but these values also increased over time, from 6% and 4% of the range of ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir in the 1980s, to 16% (ponderosa pine) and 10% (Douglas-fir) under the future climate scenario. Southern ecoregions had considerably higher vulnerability to fire-catalyzed vegetation shifts than northern ecoregions. Overall, our results suggest that the combination of climate warming and an increase in wildfire activity may substantially impact species distributions through fire-catalyzed vegetation shifts.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abb9df
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: IOP Publishing
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Reimagine fire science for the anthropocene
    Oxford University Press (OUP) ; 2022
    In:  PNAS Nexus Vol. 1, No. 3 ( 2022-07-01)
    Details
    In: PNAS Nexus, Oxford University Press (OUP), Vol. 1, No. 3 ( 2022-07-01)
    Abstract: Fire is an integral component of ecosystems globally and a tool that humans have harnessed for millennia. Altered fire regimes are a fundamental cause and consequence of global change, impacting people and the biophysical systems on which they depend. As part of the newly emerging Anthropocene, marked by human-caused climate change and radical changes to ecosystems, fire danger is increasing, and fires are having increasingly devastating impacts on human health, infrastructure, and ecosystem services. Increasing fire danger is a vexing problem that requires deep transdisciplinary, trans-sector, and inclusive partnerships to address. Here, we outline barriers and opportunities in the next generation of fire science and provide guidance for investment in future research. We synthesize insights needed to better address the long-standing challenges of innovation across disciplines to (i) promote coordinated research efforts; (ii) embrace different ways of knowing and knowledge generation; (iii) promote exploration of fundamental science; (iv) capitalize on the “firehose” of data for societal benefit; and (v) integrate human and natural systems into models across multiple scales. Fire science is thus at a critical transitional moment. We need to shift from observation and modeled representations of varying components of climate, people, vegetation, and fire to more integrative and predictive approaches that support pathways toward mitigating and adapting to our increasingly flammable world, including the utilization of fire for human safety and benefit. Only through overcoming institutional silos and accessing knowledge across diverse communities can we effectively undertake research that improves outcomes in our more fiery future.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2752-6542
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac115
    Language: English
    Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3120703-0
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Reduced fire severity offers near-term buffer to climate-driven declines in conifer resilience across the western United States
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ; 2023
    In:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 120, No. 11 ( 2023-03-14)
    Details
    In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 120, No. 11 ( 2023-03-14)
    Abstract: Increasing fire severity and warmer, drier postfire conditions are making forests in the western United States (West) vulnerable to ecological transformation. Yet, the relative importance of and interactions between these drivers of forest change remain unresolved, particularly over upcoming decades. Here, we assess how the interactive impacts of changing climate and wildfire activity influenced conifer regeneration after 334 wildfires, using a dataset of postfire conifer regeneration from 10,230 field plots. Our findings highlight declining regeneration capacity across the West over the past four decades for the eight dominant conifer species studied. Postfire regeneration is sensitive to high-severity fire, which limits seed availability, and postfire climate, which influences seedling establishment. In the near-term, projected differences in recruitment probability between low- and high-severity fire scenarios were larger than projected climate change impacts for most species, suggesting that reductions in fire severity, and resultant impacts on seed availability, could partially offset expected climate-driven declines in postfire regeneration. Across 40 to 42% of the study area, we project postfire conifer regeneration to be likely following low-severity but not high-severity fire under future climate scenarios (2031 to 2050). However, increasingly warm, dry climate conditions are projected to eventually outweigh the influence of fire severity and seed availability. The percent of the study area considered unlikely to experience conifer regeneration, regardless of fire severity, increased from 5% in 1981 to 2000 to 26 to 31% by mid-century, highlighting a limited time window over which management actions that reduce fire severity may effectively support postfire conifer regeneration.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-8424 , 1091-6490
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2208120120
    RVK:
    TA 1000
    RVK:
    WA 15000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 209104-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1461794-8
    SSG: 11
    SSG: 12
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Wildfires and climate change push low-elevation forests across a critical climate threshold for tree regeneration
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ; 2019
    In:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 116, No. 13 ( 2019-03-26), p. 6193-6198
    Details
    In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 116, No. 13 ( 2019-03-26), p. 6193-6198
    Abstract: Climate change is increasing fire activity in the western United States, which has the potential to accelerate climate-induced shifts in vegetation communities. Wildfire can catalyze vegetation change by killing adult trees that could otherwise persist in climate conditions no longer suitable for seedling establishment and survival. Recently documented declines in postfire conifer recruitment in the western United States may be an example of this phenomenon. However, the role of annual climate variation and its interaction with long-term climate trends in driving these changes is poorly resolved. Here we examine the relationship between annual climate and postfire tree regeneration of two dominant, low-elevation conifers (ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir) using annually resolved establishment dates from 2,935 destructively sampled trees from 33 wildfires across four regions in the western United States. We show that regeneration had a nonlinear response to annual climate conditions, with distinct thresholds for recruitment based on vapor pressure deficit, soil moisture, and maximum surface temperature. At dry sites across our study region, seasonal to annual climate conditions over the past 20 years have crossed these thresholds, such that conditions have become increasingly unsuitable for regeneration. High fire severity and low seed availability further reduced the probability of postfire regeneration. Together, our results demonstrate that climate change combined with high severity fire is leading to increasingly fewer opportunities for seedlings to establish after wildfires and may lead to ecosystem transitions in low-elevation ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir forests across the western United States.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-8424 , 1091-6490
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1815107116
    RVK:
    TA 1000
    RVK:
    WA 15000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 209104-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1461794-8
    SSG: 11
    SSG: 12
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    A climatic dipole drives short- and long-term patterns of postfire forest recovery in the western United States
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ; 2020
    In:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 117, No. 47 ( 2020-11-24), p. 29730-29737
    Details
    In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 117, No. 47 ( 2020-11-24), p. 29730-29737
    Abstract: Researchers are increasingly examining patterns and drivers of postfire forest recovery amid growing concern that climate change and intensifying fires will trigger ecosystem transformations. Diminished seed availability and postfire drought have emerged as key constraints on conifer recruitment. However, the spatial and temporal extent to which recurring modes of climatic variability shape patterns of postfire recovery remain largely unexplored. Here, we identify a north–south dipole in annual climatic moisture deficit anomalies across the Interior West of the US and characterize its influence on forest recovery from fire. We use annually resolved establishment models from dendrochronological records to correlate this climatic dipole with short-term postfire juvenile recruitment. We also examine longer-term recovery trajectories using Forest Inventory and Analysis data from 989 burned plots. We show that annual postfire ponderosa pine recruitment probabilities in the northern Rocky Mountains (NR) and the southwestern US (SW) track the strength of the dipole, while declining overall due to increasing aridity. This indicates that divergent recovery trajectories may be triggered concurrently across large spatial scales: favorable conditions in the SW can correspond to drought in the NR that inhibits ponderosa pine establishment, and vice versa. The imprint of this climatic dipole is manifest for years postfire, as evidenced by dampened long-term likelihoods of juvenile ponderosa pine presence in areas that experienced postfire drought. These findings underscore the importance of climatic variability at multiple spatiotemporal scales in driving cross-regional patterns of forest recovery and have implications for understanding ecosystem transformations and species range dynamics under global change.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-8424 , 1091-6490
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2007434117
    RVK:
    TA 1000
    RVK:
    WA 15000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 209104-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1461794-8
    SSG: 11
    SSG: 12
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  • 6
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    Microclimatic buffering in forests of the future: the role of local water balance
    Wiley ; 2019
    In:  Ecography Vol. 42, No. 1 ( 2019-01), p. 1-11
    Details
    In: Ecography, Wiley, Vol. 42, No. 1 ( 2019-01), p. 1-11
    Abstract: Forest canopies buffer climate extremes and promote microclimates that may function as refugia for understory species under changing climate. However, the biophysical conditions that promote and maintain microclimatic buffering and its stability through time are largely unresolved. We posited that forest microclimatic buffering is sensitive to local water balance and canopy cover, and we measured this effect during the growing season across a climate gradient in forests of the northwestern United States (US). We found that forest canopies buffer extremes of maximum temperature and vapor pressure deficit (VPD), with biologically meaningful effect sizes. For example, during the growing season, maximum temperature and VPD under at least 50% forest canopy were 5.3°C and 1.1 kPa lower on average, respectively, compared to areas without canopy cover. Canopy buffering of temperature and vapor pressure deficit was greater at higher levels of canopy cover, and varied with water balance, implying that buffering effects are subject to changes in local hydrology. We project changes in the water balance for the mid‐21st century and predict how such changes may impact the ability of western US forests to buffer climate extremes. Our results suggest that some forests will lose their capacity to buffer climate extremes as sites become increasingly water limited. Changes in water balance combined with accelerating canopy losses due to increases in the frequency and severity of disturbance will create potentially non‐linear changes in the microclimate conditions of western US forests.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0906-7590 , 1600-0587
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1111/ecog.2019.v42.i1
    DOI: 10.1111/ecog.03836
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2024917-2
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1112659-0
    SSG: 12
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  • 7
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    Online Resource
    Western larch regeneration more sensitive to wildfire-related factors than seasonal climate variability
    Elsevier BV ; 2024
    In:  Forest Ecology and Management Vol. 565 ( 2024-08), p. 122011-
    Details
    In: Forest Ecology and Management, Elsevier BV, Vol. 565 ( 2024-08), p. 122011-
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0378-1127
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122011
    Language: English
    Publisher: Elsevier BV
    Publication Date: 2024
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016648-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 751138-3
    SSG: 23
    SSG: 12
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  • 8
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    Online Resource
    Table_2.XLSX
    Frontiers Media SA ; 2021
    In:  Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Vol. 4 ( 2021-2-4)
    Details
    In: Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, Frontiers Media SA, Vol. 4 ( 2021-2-4)
    Abstract: Large-scale global reforestation goals have been proposed to help mitigate climate change and provide other ecosystem services. To explore reforestation potential in the United States, we used GIS analyses, surveys of nursery managers and foresters, and literature synthesis to assess the opportunities and challenges associated with meeting proposed reforestation goals. We considered a scenario where 26 million hectares (64 million acres) of natural and agricultural lands are reforested by 2040 with 30 billion trees at an estimated cost of $33 ($24–$53) billion USD. Cost per hectare will vary by region, site conditions, and other factors. This scenario would require increasing the number of tree seedlings produced each year by 1.7 billion, a 2.3-fold increase over current nursery production levels. Additional investment (not included in the reforestation cost estimate) will be needed to expand capacity for seed collection, seedling production, workforce development, and improvements in pre- and post-planting practices. Achieving this scenario will require public support for investing in these activities and incentives for landowners.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2624-893X
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.3389/ffgc.2021.629198
    DOI: 10.3389/ffgc.2021.629198.s001
    DOI: 10.3389/ffgc.2021.629198.s002
    DOI: 10.3389/ffgc.2021.629198.s003
    DOI: 10.3389/ffgc.2021.629198.s004
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2968523-0
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  • 9
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    Online Resource
    Refuge‐yeah or refuge‐nah? Predicting locations of forest resistance and recruitment in a fiery world
    Wiley ; 2023
    In:  Global Change Biology Vol. 29, No. 24 ( 2023-12), p. 7029-7050
    Details
    In: Global Change Biology, Wiley, Vol. 29, No. 24 ( 2023-12), p. 7029-7050
    Abstract: Climate warming, land use change, and altered fire regimes are driving ecological transformations that can have critical effects on Earth's biota. Fire refugia—locations that are burned less frequently or severely than their surroundings—may act as sites of relative stability during this period of rapid change by being resistant to fire and supporting post‐fire recovery in adjacent areas. Because of their value to forest ecosystem persistence, there is an urgent need to anticipate where refugia are most likely to be found and where they align with environmental conditions that support post‐fire tree recruitment. Using biophysical predictors and patterns of burn severity from 1180 recent fire events, we mapped the locations of potential fire refugia across upland conifer forests in the southwestern United States (US) (99,428 km 2 of forest area), a region that is highly vulnerable to fire‐driven transformation. We found that low pre‐fire forest cover, flat slopes or topographic concavities, moderate weather conditions, spring‐season burning, and areas affected by low‐ to moderate‐severity fire within the previous 15 years were most commonly associated with refugia. Based on current (i.e., 2021) conditions, we predicted that 67.6% and 18.1% of conifer forests in our study area would contain refugia under moderate and extreme fire weather, respectively. However, potential refugia were 36.4% (moderate weather) and 31.2% (extreme weather) more common across forests that experienced recent fires, supporting the increased use of prescribed and resource objective fires during moderate weather conditions to promote fire‐resistant landscapes. When overlaid with models of tree recruitment, 23.2% (moderate weather) and 6.4% (extreme weather) of forests were classified as refugia with a high potential to support post‐fire recruitment in the surrounding landscape. These locations may be disproportionately valuable for ecosystem sustainability, providing habitat for fire‐sensitive species and maintaining forest persistence in an increasingly fire‐prone world.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1354-1013 , 1365-2486
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1111/gcb.v29.24
    DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16939
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2020313-5
    SSG: 12
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  • 10
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    Identifying opportunity hot spots for reducing the risk of wildfire-caused carbon loss in western US conifer forests
    IOP Publishing ; 2023
    In:  Environmental Research Letters Vol. 18, No. 9 ( 2023-09-01), p. 094040-
    Details
    In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 18, No. 9 ( 2023-09-01), p. 094040-
    Abstract: The escalating climate and wildfire crises have generated worldwide interest in using proactive forest management (e.g. forest thinning, prescribed fire, cultural burning) to mitigate the risk of wildfire-caused carbon loss in forests. To estimate the risk of wildfire-caused carbon loss in western United States (US) conifer forests, we used a generalizable framework to evaluate interactions among wildfire hazard and carbon exposure and vulnerability. By evaluating where high social adaptive capacity for proactive forest management overlaps with carbon most vulnerable to wildfire-caused carbon loss, we identified opportunity hot spots for reducing the risk of wildfire-caused carbon loss. We found that relative to their total forest area, California, New Mexico, and Arizona contained the greatest proportion of carbon highly vulnerable to wildfire-caused loss. We also observed widespread opportunities in the western US for using proactive forest management to reduce the risk of wildfire-caused carbon loss, with many areas containing opportunities for simultaneously mitigating the greatest risk from wildfire to carbon and human communities. Finally, we highlighted collaborative and equitable processes that provide pathways to achieving timely climate- and wildfire-mitigation goals at opportunity hot spots.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acf05a
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: IOP Publishing
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4
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