GLORIA

GEOMAR Library Ocean Research Information Access

X

Your email was sent successfully. Check your inbox.

An error occurred while sending the email. Please try again.

Proceed reservation?

Export
  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure
    The Royal Society ; 2018
    In:  Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences Vol. 376, No. 2121 ( 2018-06-13), p. 20170298-
    Details
    In: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, The Royal Society, Vol. 376, No. 2121 ( 2018-06-13), p. 20170298-
    Abstract: Extreme weather causes substantial adverse socio-economic impacts by damaging and disrupting the infrastructure services that underpin modern society. Globally, $2.5tn a year is spent on infrastructure which is typically designed to last decades, over which period projected changes in the climate will modify infrastructure performance. A systems approach has been developed to assess risks across all infrastructure sectors to guide national policy making and adaptation investment. The method analyses diverse evidence of climate risks and adaptation actions, to assess the urgency and extent of adaptation required. Application to the UK shows that despite recent adaptation efforts, risks to infrastructure outweigh opportunities. Flooding is the greatest risk to all infrastructure sectors: even if the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C is achieved, the number of users reliant on electricity infrastructure at risk of flooding would double, while a 4°C rise could triple UK flood damage. Other risks are significant, for example 5% and 20% of river catchments would be unable to meet water demand with 2°C and 4°C global warming respectively. Increased interdependence between infrastructure systems, especially from energy and information and communication technology (ICT), are amplifying risks, but adaptation action is limited by lack of clear responsibilities. A programme to build national capability is urgently required to improve infrastructure risk assessment. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1364-503X , 1471-2962
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2017.0298
    RVK:
    AX 30011
    Language: English
    Publisher: The Royal Society
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 208381-4
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1462626-3
    SSG: 11
    SSG: 5,1
    SSG: 5,21
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Briefing: Wrapt – software for analysing UKCP09 weather generator output
    Emerald ; 2014
    In:  Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Water Management Vol. 167, No. 6 ( 2014-06), p. 318-321
    Details
    In: Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Water Management, Emerald, Vol. 167, No. 6 ( 2014-06), p. 318-321
    Abstract: Wrapt (Weather generator rainfall analysis processing tool) is a software tool created as part of a UK Water Industry Research project on the impact of climate change on sewer networks. It allows users to generate design storm change factors and select timeseries from output of the UKCP09 (UK climate projections 2009) weather generator without the need for manual processing or detailed knowledge of weather generators. Wrapt has been developed to assess changes in extremes of short-duration rainfall events – relevant to assessing the performance of sewer networks – but also has potential for applications elsewhere (e.g. water quality modelling).
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1741-7589 , 1751-7729
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1680/wama.13.00044
    Language: English
    Publisher: Emerald
    Publication Date: 2014
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2142488-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2126634-7
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Added value of seasonal hindcasts to create UK hydrological drought storylines
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2024
    In:  Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Vol. 24, No. 3 ( 2024-03-28), p. 1065-1078
    Details
    In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 24, No. 3 ( 2024-03-28), p. 1065-1078
    Abstract: Abstract. The UK has experienced recurring periods of hydrological droughts in the past, including the drought declared in summer 2022. Seasonal hindcasts, consisting of a large sample of plausible weather sequences, can be used to create drought storylines and add value to existing approaches to water resources planning. In this study, the drivers of winter rainfall in the Anglian region in England are investigated using the ECMWF SEAS5 hindcast dataset, which includes 2850 plausible winters across 25 ensemble members and 3 lead times. Four winter clusters are defined using the hindcast winters based on possible combinations of various atmospheric circulation indices (such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO; East Atlantic, EA, pattern; and El Niño–Southern Oscillation). Using the 2022 drought as a case study, we demonstrate how storylines representing alternative ways the event could have unfolded can be used to explore plausible worst-case scenarios over winter 2022/23 and beyond. The winter clusters span a range of temperature and rainfall response in the study region and represent circulation storylines that could have happened over winter 2022/23. River flow and groundwater level simulations with the large sample of plausible hindcast winters show that drier-than-average winters characterised by predominantly NAO−/EA− and NAO+/EA− circulation patterns could have resulted in the continuation of the drought with a high likelihood of below-normal to low river flows across all selected catchments and boreholes by spring and summer 2023. Catchments in Norfolk were particularly vulnerable to a dry summer in 2023 as river flows were not estimated to recover to normal levels even with wet winters characterised predominantly by NAO−/EA+ and NAO+/EA+ circulation patterns, due to insufficient rainfall to overcome previous dry conditions and the slow response nature of groundwater-dominated catchments. Through this analysis, we aim to demonstrate the added value of this approach to create drought storylines during an ongoing event. Storylines constructed in this way supplement traditional weather forecasts and hydrological outlooks, in order to explore a wider range of plausible outcomes.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1684-9981
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024
    DOI: 10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2024
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2064587-9
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Projected changes in droughts and extreme droughts in Great Britain strongly influenced by the choice of drought index
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2023
    In:  Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Vol. 27, No. 5 ( 2023-03-16), p. 1151-1171
    Details
    In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 27, No. 5 ( 2023-03-16), p. 1151-1171
    Abstract: Abstract. Droughts cause enormous ecological, economical and societal damage, and they are already undergoing changes due to anthropogenic climate change. The issue of defining and quantifying droughts has long been a substantial source of uncertainty in understanding observed and projected trends. Atmosphere-based drought indicators, such as the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), are often used to quantify drought characteristics and their changes, sometimes as the sole metric representing drought. This study presents a detailed systematic analysis of SPI- and SPEI-based drought projections and their differences for Great Britain (GB), derived from the most recent set of regional climate projections for the United Kingdom (UK). We show that the choice of drought indicator has a decisive influence on the resulting projected changes in drought frequency, extent, duration and seasonality using scenarios that are 2 and 4 ∘C above pre-industrial levels. The projected increases in drought frequency and extent are far greater based on the SPEI than based on the SPI. Importantly, compared with droughts of all intensities, isolated extreme droughts are projected to increase far more with respect to frequency and extent and are also expected to show more pronounced changes in the distribution of their event durations. Further, projected intensification of the seasonal cycle is reflected in an increasing occurrence of years with (extremely) dry summers combined with wetter-than-average winters. Increasing summer droughts also form the main contribution to increases in annual droughts, especially using the SPEI. These results show that the choice of atmospheric drought index strongly influences the drought characteristics inferred from climate change projections, with a comparable impact to the uncertainty from the climate model parameters or the warming level; therefore, potential users of these indices should carefully consider the importance of potential evapotranspiration in their intended context. The stark differences between SPI- and SPEI-based projections highlight the need to better understand the interplay between increasing atmospheric evaporative demand, moisture availability and drought impacts under a changing climate. The region-dependent projected changes in drought characteristics by two warming levels have important implications for adaptation efforts in GB, and they further stress the need for rapid mitigation.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1607-7938
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/hess-27-1151-2023
    DOI: 10.5194/hess-27-1151-2023-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2100610-6
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Climate change impacts on river basin and freshwater ecosystems: some observations on challenges and emerging solutions
    IWA Publishing ; 2012
    In:  Journal of Water and Climate Change Vol. 3, No. 3 ( 2012-09-01), p. 171-184
    Details
    In: Journal of Water and Climate Change, IWA Publishing, Vol. 3, No. 3 ( 2012-09-01), p. 171-184
    Abstract: Despite uncertainty pertaining to methods, assumptions and input data of climate change models, most models point towards a trend of an increasing frequency of flooding and drought events. How these changes reflect water management decisions and what can be done to minimize climate change impacts remains unclear. This paper summarizes and extends the workshop outcomes on ‘Climate Change Impacts on Watershed Management: Challenges and Emerging Solutions’ held at the IWA World Water Congress and Exhibition, Montréal, 2010, hosted by the IWA Watershed and River Basin Management Specialist Group. The paper discusses climate change impacts on water management of freshwater ecosystems and river basins, and illustrates these with three case studies. It is demonstrated through the case studies that engagement of relevant stakeholders is needed early in the process of building environmental flows and climate change decision-making tools, to result in greater buy-in to decisions made, create new partnerships, and help build stronger water management institutions. New alliances are then created between water managers, policy makers, community members, and scientists. This has been highlighted by the demonstration of the Pangani integrated environmental flow assessment, through the Okavango River Basin case study, and in the more participatory governance approach proposed for the Delaware River Basin.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2040-2244 , 2408-9354
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2012.006
    Language: English
    Publisher: IWA Publishing
    Publication Date: 2012
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2607828-4
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2552186-X
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Storylines of UK drought based on the 2010–2012 event
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2022
    In:  Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Vol. 26, No. 7 ( 2022-04-06), p. 1755-1777
    Details
    In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 26, No. 7 ( 2022-04-06), p. 1755-1777
    Abstract: Abstract. Spatially extensive multi-year hydrological droughts cause significant environmental stress. The UK is expected to remain vulnerable to future multi-year droughts under climate change. Existing approaches to quantify hydrological impacts of climate change often rely solely on global climate model (GCM) projections following different emission scenarios. This may miss out low-probability events with significant impacts. As a means of exploring such events, physical climate storyline approaches aim to quantify physically coherent articulations of how observed events could hypothetically have unfolded in alternative ways. This study uses the 2010–2012 drought, the most recent period of severe hydrological drought in the UK, as a basis and analyses storylines based on changes to (1) precondition severity, (2) temporal drought sequence, and (3) climate change. Evidence from multiple storylines shows that the maximum intensity, mean deficit, and duration of the 2010–2012 drought were highly influenced by its meteorological preconditions prior to drought inception, particularly for northern catchments at shorter timescales. The influence of progressively drier preconditions reflects both the spatial variation in drought preconditions and the role of physical catchment characteristics, particularly hydrogeology in the propagation of multi-year droughts. There are two plausible storylines of an additional dry year with dry winter conditions repeated either before the observed drought or replacing the observed dramatic drought termination confirm the vulnerability of UK catchments to a “third dry winter” storyline. Applying the UKCP18 climate projections, we find that drought conditions worsen with global warming with a mitigation of drought conditions by wetter winters in northern catchments at high warming levels. Comparison of the storylines with a benchmark drought (1975–1976) and a protracted multi-year drought (1989–1993) shows that, for each storyline (including the climate change storylines), drought conditions could have matched and exceeded those experienced during the past droughts at catchments across the UK, particularly for southern catchments. The construction of storylines based on observed events can complement existing methods to stress test UK catchments against plausible unrealised droughts.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1607-7938
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/hess-26-1755-2022
    DOI: 10.5194/hess-26-1755-2022-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2100610-6
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Climate Change and River Basin Management – the European Approach
    Water Environment Federation ; 2010
    In:  Proceedings of the Water Environment Federation Vol. 2010, No. 10 ( 2010-01-01), p. 6433-6439
    Details
    In: Proceedings of the Water Environment Federation, Water Environment Federation, Vol. 2010, No. 10 ( 2010-01-01), p. 6433-6439
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1938-6478
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.2175/193864710798194292
    Language: English
    Publisher: Water Environment Federation
    Publication Date: 2010
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    UK Net-Zero Policy Design and Deep Uncertainty – the Need for an Alternative Approach
    Elsevier BV ; 2022
    In:  SSRN Electronic Journal
    Details
    In: SSRN Electronic Journal, Elsevier BV
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1556-5068
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.4313843
    Language: English
    Publisher: Elsevier BV
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2234654-5
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Realising a climate-resilient UK electricity and gas system
    Emerald ; 2016
    In:  Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Energy Vol. 169, No. 1 ( 2016-02), p. 30-43
    Details
    In: Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Energy, Emerald, Vol. 169, No. 1 ( 2016-02), p. 30-43
    Abstract: The risks presented by climate change mean that there is a need to future-proof the UK's energy (electricity and natural gas) infrastructure. The scale of investment required is estimated at more than £200 billion by 2030. Although there are a variety of funding sources available, increasing proportions of infrastructure investment are now being funded by the private sector. Therefore, it will be necessary to find ways to incentivise private investors to accommodate for adaptation requirements in their decision-making processes. Research was undertaken to explore the UK energy infrastructure under the following three main lenses. (a) What technical aspects of energy infrastructure need to consider the effects of climate change? (b) What investment is required in the near future to adapt to climate change? (c) What types of policy could create reliable signals for investment in climate change adaptation? This paper presents key findings and considerations for policy covering the three questions above: (a) there are data gaps, interdependencies not effectively assessed and techniques available but not yet adopted; (b) the investment community suffers from a lack of climate change expertise and a short-term mindset; and (c) there is a need for a clearer policy vision and greater collaboration.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1751-4223 , 1751-4231
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1680/jener.15.00008
    Language: English
    Publisher: Emerald
    Publication Date: 2016
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2296222-0
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2272186-1
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Decision making in contexts of deep uncertainty - An alternative approach for long-term climate policy
    Elsevier BV ; 2020
    In:  Environmental Science & Policy Vol. 103 ( 2020-01), p. 77-84
    Details
    In: Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier BV, Vol. 103 ( 2020-01), p. 77-84
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1462-9011
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2019.10.002
    Language: English
    Publisher: Elsevier BV
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1454687-5
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
Close ⊗
This website uses cookies and the analysis tool Matomo. More information can be found here...