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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Tornado Season of 1983
    American Meteorological Society ; 1985
    In:  Monthly Weather Review Vol. 113, No. 3 ( 1985-03), p. 395-404
    Details
    In: Monthly Weather Review, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 113, No. 3 ( 1985-03), p. 395-404
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-0644 , 1520-0493
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1985)113〈0395:TTSO〉2.0.CO;2
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 1985
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2033056-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 202616-8
    SSG: 14
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Revisiting the 3–4 April 1974 Super Outbreak of Tornadoes
    American Meteorological Society ; 2010
    In:  Weather and Forecasting Vol. 25, No. 2 ( 2010-04-01), p. 465-510
    Details
    In: Weather and Forecasting, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 25, No. 2 ( 2010-04-01), p. 465-510
    Abstract: The Super Outbreak of tornadoes over the central and eastern United States on 3–4 April 1974 remains the most outstanding severe convective weather episode on record in the continental United States. The outbreak far surpassed previous and succeeding events in severity, longevity, and extent. In this paper, surface, upper-air, radar, and satellite data are used to provide an updated synoptic and subsynoptic overview of the event. Emphasis is placed on identifying the major factors that contributed to the development of the three main convective bands associated with the outbreak, and on identifying the conditions that may have contributed to the outstanding number of intense and long-lasting tornadoes. Selected output from a 29-km, 50-layer version of the Eta forecast model, a version similar to that available operationally in the mid-1990s, also is presented to help depict the evolution of thermodynamic stability during the event.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0434 , 0882-8156
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/2009WAF2222297.1
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2010
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2025194-4
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Forecasting the Maintenance of Quasi-Linear Mesoscale Convective Systems
    American Meteorological Society ; 2007
    In:  Weather and Forecasting Vol. 22, No. 3 ( 2007-06-01), p. 556-570
    Details
    In: Weather and Forecasting, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 22, No. 3 ( 2007-06-01), p. 556-570
    Abstract: The problem of forecasting the maintenance of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is investigated through an examination of observed proximity soundings. Furthermore, environmental variables that are statistically different between mature and weakening MCSs are input into a logistic regression procedure to develop probabilistic guidance on MCS maintenance, focusing on warm-season quasi-linear systems that persist for several hours. Between the mature and weakening MCSs, shear vector magnitudes over very deep layers are the best discriminators among hundreds of kinematic and thermodynamic variables. An analysis of the shear profiles reveals that the shear component perpendicular to MCS motion (usually parallel to the leading line) accounts for much of this difference in low levels and the shear component parallel to MCS motion accounts for much of this difference in mid- to upper levels. The lapse rates over a significant portion of the convective cloud layer, the convective available potential energy, and the deep-layer mean wind speed are also very good discriminators and collectively provide a high level of discrimination between the mature and dissipation soundings as revealed by linear discriminant analysis. Probabilistic equations developed from these variables used with short-term numerical model output show utility in forecasting the transition of an MCS with a solid line of 50+ dBZ echoes to a more disorganized system with unsteady changes in structure and propagation. This study shows that empirical forecast tools based on environmental relationships still have the potential to provide forecasters with improved information on the qualitative characteristics of MCS structure and longevity. This is especially important since the current and near-term value added by explicit numerical forecasts of convection is still uncertain.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0434 , 0882-8156
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/WAF1006.1
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2007
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2025194-4
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