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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Robust late twenty-first century shift in the regional monsoons in RegCM-CORDEX simulations
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2021
    In:  Climate Dynamics Vol. 57, No. 5-6 ( 2021-09), p. 1463-1488
    Details
    In: Climate Dynamics, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 57, No. 5-6 ( 2021-09), p. 1463-1488
    Abstract: We use an unprecedented ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) projections over seven regional CORDEX domains to provide, for the first time, an RCM-based global view of monsoon changes at various levels of increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. All regional simulations are conducted using RegCM4 at a 25 km horizontal grid spacing using lateral and lower boundary forcing from three General Circulation Models (GCMs), which are part of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). Each simulation covers the period from 1970 through 2100 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Regional climate simulations exhibit high fidelity in capturing key characteristics of precipitation and atmospheric dynamics across monsoon regions in the historical period. In the future period, regional monsoons exhibit a spatially robust delay in the monsoon onset, an increase in seasonality, and a reduction in the rainy season length at higher levels of radiative forcing. All regions with substantial delays in the monsoon onset exhibit a decrease in pre-monsoon precipitation, indicating a strong connection between pre-monsoon drying and a shift in the monsoon onset. The weakening of latent heat driven atmospheric warming during the pre-monsoon period delays the overturning of atmospheric subsidence in the monsoon regions, which defers their transitioning into deep convective states. Monsoon changes under the RCP2.6 scenario are mostly within the baseline variability.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0930-7575 , 1432-0894
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05306-2
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2021
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1471747-5
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 2
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    Formation of a coastal barrier jet in the Gulf of Mexico due to the interaction of cold fronts with the S ierra M adre O riental mountain range
    Wiley ; 2018
    In:  Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Vol. 144, No. 710 ( 2018-01), p. 115-128
    Details
    In: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Wiley, Vol. 144, No. 710 ( 2018-01), p. 115-128
    Abstract: The passage of three cold fronts ( CFs ) over the Gulf of Mexico was simulated with the Weather Research and Forecasting model to study the mechanisms associated with the formation of a jet parallel to the Sierra Madre Oriental ( SMOr ) mountain range near the port of Veracruz. Dew‐point temperature ( T d = 20 °C) and available convective potential energy best simulated the horizontal propagation of the intense CFs over the Gulf, and equivalent potential temperature helped identify the vertical position of the fronts. Additional simulations with reduced topography showed that mountain heights exceeding 2.5 km, where the SMOr is closest to the coast, were crucial for the formation of a coastal barrier jet. The Froude number (Fr 〈 1) and the ageostrophic component of the wind at low levels were used to identify the formation of the jet; the Rossby radius of deformation determined its horizontal extent which was 81 km into the Gulf of Mexico in agreement with scatterometer winds during one of the CFs . The interaction of the northeasterly winds (known as Nortes) with the topography produced a blocking effect resulting in a stable region of cold air, a rain‐shadow and a coastal barrier jet of northwesterly direction, which generated strong cold air advection and subsidence in comparison with adjacent zones. The jet region appears as a minimum in the winter precipitation climatology indicating that the barrier jet is an important intraseasonal feature. In two of the case‐studies, maximum jet velocities reached those of a tropical storm ( 〉 18 m s −1 ) and occurred near the surface ( 〈 1 km above mean sea level), consistent with observations and similar to other barrier jets in the world. For the first time the jet near the port of Veracruz is documented as a coastal barrier jet. The CFs also produced strong Tehuano gap winds.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0035-9009 , 1477-870X
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1002/qj.2018.144.issue-710
    DOI: 10.1002/qj.3188
    RVK:
    UA 1000
    RVK:
    UA 7650
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2018
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2089168-4
    SSG: 14
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  • 3
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    The influence of the southern oscillation on the winter climate of Nuevo Leon state, Mexico
    Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico ; 1994
    In:  Geofísica Internacional Vol. 33, No. 2 ( 1994-04-01), p. 295-302
    Details
    In: Geofísica Internacional, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Vol. 33, No. 2 ( 1994-04-01), p. 295-302
    Abstract: El propósito de este trabajo es estudiar la influencia de la Oscilación del Sur sobre el clima invernal (noviembre/abril) del Estado de Nuevo León, México. El estudio se fundamenta a través de un análisis de correlación de temperatura media, precipitación, datos de radio-sondeo y un índice de la Oscilación del Sur, deï¬nido como bajo cuando la presión a nivel del mar es anormalmente baja/alta en Tahiti/Darwin. Los resultados muestran un aumento significativo de precipitación y una tendencia hacia temperaturas menores en casi todo el estado, especialmente a barlovento de la Sierra Madre Oriental durante el invierno de los eventos de El Niño o fase baja de la Oscilación del Sur. Asimismo, se obtuvieron anomalías negativas de alturas geopotenciales a 850 mb en el Golfo de México durante la misma fase. Estos resultados se asocian con una influencia conjugada de los Nortes sobre la región costera del golfo norte y de los fuertes vientos del oeste que acompañan a la corriente de chorro subtropical durante tales eventos. Los resultados del estudio indican que la Oscilación del Sur tiene un impacto sobre el clima invernal de Nuevo León con influencias modulantes de carácter regional como son los Nortes y la Sierra Madre Oriental.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0016-7169
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.22201/igeof.00167169p.1994.33.2
    DOI: 10.22201/igeof.00167169p.1994.33.2.477
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico
    Publication Date: 1994
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    SSG: 16,13
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  • 4
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    Online Resource
    A Numerical Investigation of Wet and Dry Onset Modes in the North American Monsoon Core Region. Part I: A Regional Mechanism for Interannual Variability
    American Meteorological Society ; 2012
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 25, No. 11 ( 2012-06), p. 3953-3969
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 25, No. 11 ( 2012-06), p. 3953-3969
    Abstract: In this study the results of two regional fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) simulations forced at their boundaries with low-pass-filtered North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) composite fields from which synoptic-scale variability was removed are presented. The filtered NARR data are also assimilated into the inner domain through the use of field nudging. The purpose of this research is to investigate wet and dry onset modes in the core region of the North American monsoon (NAM). Key features of the NAM that are present in the NARR fields and assimilated into the regional simulations include the position of the midlevel anticyclone, low-level circulation over the Gulf of California, and moisture flux patterns into the core monsoon region, for which the eastern Pacific is the likely primary source of moisture. The model develops a robust diurnal cycle of deep convection over the peaks of the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO) that results solely from its radiation scheme and internal dynamics, in spite of the field nudging. The wet onset mode is related to a regional land–sea thermal contrast (LSTC) that is ~2°C higher than in the dry mode, and is further characterized by a northward-displaced midlevel anticyclone, a stronger surface pressure gradient along the Gulf of California, larger mean moisture fluxes into the core region from the eastern Pacific, a stronger diurnal cycle of deep convection, and the more northward distribution of precipitation along the axis of the SMO. A proposed regional LSTC mechanism for NAM onset interannual variability is consistent with the differences between both onset modes.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00215.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2012
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 5
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    Online Resource
    Future Global Meteorological Drought Hot Spots: A Study Based on CORDEX Data
    American Meteorological Society ; 2020
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 33, No. 9 ( 2020-05-01), p. 3635-3661
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 33, No. 9 ( 2020-05-01), p. 3635-3661
    Abstract: Two questions motivated this study: 1) Will meteorological droughts become more frequent and severe during the twenty-first century? 2) Given the projected global temperature rise, to what extent does the inclusion of temperature (in addition to precipitation) in drought indicators play a role in future meteorological droughts? To answer, we analyzed the changes in drought frequency, severity, and historically undocumented extreme droughts over 1981–2100, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI; including precipitation only) and standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI; indirectly including temperature), and under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). As input data, we employed 103 high-resolution (0.44°) simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), based on a combination of 16 global circulation models (GCMs) and 20 regional circulation models (RCMs). This is the first study on global drought projections including RCMs based on such a large ensemble of RCMs. Based on precipitation only, ~15% of the global land is likely to experience more frequent and severe droughts during 2071–2100 versus 1981–2010 for both scenarios. This increase is larger (~47% under RCP4.5, ~49% under RCP8.5) when precipitation and temperature are used. Both SPI and SPEI project more frequent and severe droughts, especially under RCP8.5, over southern South America, the Mediterranean region, southern Africa, southeastern China, Japan, and southern Australia. A decrease in drought is projected for high latitudes in Northern Hemisphere and Southeast Asia. If temperature is included, drought characteristics are projected to increase over North America, Amazonia, central Europe and Asia, the Horn of Africa, India, and central Australia; if only precipitation is considered, they are found to decrease over those areas.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0084.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 6
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    Numerical Simulation of Heavy Precipitation in Northern Baja California and Southern California
    American Meteorological Society ; 2006
    In:  Journal of Hydrometeorology Vol. 7, No. 1 ( 2006-02-01), p. 137-148
    Details
    In: Journal of Hydrometeorology, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 7, No. 1 ( 2006-02-01), p. 137-148
    Abstract: The fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) was used to simulate the heavy-precipitation events of 6–21 January 1993 during a moderate El Niño that produced severe flooding, landslides, and the loss of many lives near the border of California and Baja California, Mexico. The mean synoptic-scale condition consisted of a strong upper-level subtropical westerly jet over the U.S.–Mexico western border and the passage of three surface fronts, along with intense low-level advection of tropical moisture and convective activity over the region. The MM5 reproduced the mean observed circulation patterns of the study period but with less intensity. During the first extreme event on 6 January, the model sounding profile in San Diego, California, was more unstable and saturated than observed, the horizontal winds were weaker in the lower troposphere, and the simulated precipitation was slightly underestimated. The model precipitation was verified with hourly and daily precipitation records in California and Baja California, respectively, and regional errors were obtained for the 16-day period. The simulation showed an improvement when the resolution increased from 90 to 30 km, but there was not a significant improvement from 30 to 10 km; however, extreme rainfall events ( & gt;10 mm day−1) were better resolved by the 10-km grid, possibly due to the finer-scale topography.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1525-7541 , 1525-755X
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JHM476.1
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2006
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2042176-X
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  • 7
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    Land–Sea Thermal Contrast and Intensity of the North American Monsoon under Climate Change Conditions
    American Meteorological Society ; 2014
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 27, No. 12 ( 2014-06-15), p. 4566-4580
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 27, No. 12 ( 2014-06-15), p. 4566-4580
    Abstract: The hypothesis that global warming during the twenty-first century will increase the land–sea thermal contrast (LSTC) and therefore the intensity of early season precipitation of the North American monsoon (NAM) is examined. To test this hypothesis, future changes (2075–99 minus 1979–2004 means) in LSTC, moisture flux convergence (MFC), vertical velocity, and precipitation in the region are analyzed using six global climate models (GCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenario. A surface LSTC index shows that the continent becomes warmer than the ocean in May in the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) and in June in the mean ensemble of the GCMs (ens_GCMs), and the magnitude of the positive LSTC is greater in the reanalyses than in the ens_GCMs during the historic period. However, the reanalyses underestimate July–August precipitation in the NAM region, while the ens_GCMs reproduces the peak season surprisingly well but overestimates it the rest of the year. The future ens_GCMs projects a doubling of the magnitude of the positive surface LSTC and an earlier start of the continental summer warming in mid-May. Contrary to the stated hypothesis, however, the mean projection suggests a slight decrease of monsoon coastal precipitation during June–August (JJA), which is attributed to increased midtropospheric subsidence, a reduced midtropospheric LSTC, and reduced MFC in the NAM coastal region. In contrast, the future ens_GCMs produces increased MFC and precipitation over the adjacent mountains during JJA and significantly more rainfall over the entire NAM region during September–October, weakening the monsoon retreat.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00557.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2014
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 8
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    Downscaled Climate Change Scenarios for Baja California and the North American Monsoon during the Twenty-First Century
    American Meteorological Society ; 2012
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 25, No. 17 ( 2012-09-01), p. 5904-5915
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 25, No. 17 ( 2012-09-01), p. 5904-5915
    Abstract: Regional climate change scenarios for Baja California/Southern California (BCC) and the North American monsoon (NAM) were produced as part of the Baja California State Climate Change Action Program (PEACC-BC). Bias-corrected and spatially downscaled scenarios (BCSD) from six general circulation models (GCMs) with a total of 12 realizations were analyzed for two scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES): B1 (low emissions) and A2 (high emissions) during the twenty-first century. A validation of the original GCM realizations and the BCSD scenarios with observed data during 1961–90 show that the ensemble GCM produces too much precipitation during autumn and winter, which could be the cause of the observed delay of the summer monsoon rains; the ensemble BCSD considerably improves the mean annual cycles and spatial distributions of precipitation and temperature in the region. However, both ensembles greatly underestimate the observed interannual variability of precipitation. BCSD scenarios of temperature and precipitation during the twenty-first century were evaluated on the basis of the multimodel median change relative to 1961–90. The scenarios of precipitation change show large interannual variations and larger uncertainties than the scenarios of temperature change. The A2 scenarios show the largest reductions of precipitation in the last 20 yr of the twenty-first century; a decrease of 30% is projected for BCC mainly in winter and spring, while precipitation in the NAM region could be weakened by 20% during winter, spring, and summer. After 2050, a significant reduction of precipitation is expected in northwestern Mexico and the southwestern United States south of 35°N, and temperature changes larger than 2°C warming.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00425.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2012
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 9
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    Comparación de bases de datos climáticos en la modelación de distribución potencial de Pinus cembroides Zucc.
    Revista Mexicana de Ciencias Forestales ; 2023
    In:  Revista Mexicana de Ciencias Forestales Vol. 14, No. 79 ( 2023-08-31), p. 135-158
    Details
    In: Revista Mexicana de Ciencias Forestales, Revista Mexicana de Ciencias Forestales, Vol. 14, No. 79 ( 2023-08-31), p. 135-158
    Abstract: La distribución potencial de las poblaciones de Pinus cembroides depende de la variabilidad espacial y temporal de la temperatura y la precipitación. Dado el incremento en la disponibilidad de diferentes bases de datos climáticos en las últimas décadas, el objetivo del presente estudio fue evaluar el efecto de su variabilidad espacial y temporal en la modelación de la distribución potencial de P. cembroides. Se utilizó el algoritmo de Máxima Entropía (MaxEnt) para obtener la distribución potencial de P. cembroides a partir de los registros del Inventario Nacional Forestal y de Suelos y del Sistema Nacional de Información sobre Biodiversidad, con datos de cuatro fuentes de información climática. A pesar de las diferencias en la resolución espacial, se obtuvieron cuatro modelos confiables con valores de AUC cercanos a 0.8. La distribución de P. cembroides está limitada por la temperatura media de los trimestres más húmedo (Bio 8) y más seco (Bio 9). Los modelos de WorldClim v2.1 y SCM presentaron una mayor correlación entre la distribución de P. cembroides y las variables bioclimáticas seleccionadas. En los cuatro modelos, la especie registró una mayor probabilidad de ocurrencia ( 〉 70 %) en las sierras Madre Oriental y Occidental. Se concluye que son necesarias bases de datos con una resolución espacial de al menos 15 km2 para los estudios de distribución de P. cembroides. Este tipo de investigaciones deben considerarse un primer paso en la planeación y desarrollo de estrategias de manejo y conservación de la especie.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2448-6671
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.29298/rmcf.v14i79.1350
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: Revista Mexicana de Ciencias Forestales
    Publication Date: 2023
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  • 10
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    Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Over the United States, Central America, and the Caribbean in CMIP6 GCMs
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2021
    In:  Earth Systems and Environment Vol. 5, No. 1 ( 2021-01), p. 1-24
    Details
    In: Earth Systems and Environment, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 5, No. 1 ( 2021-01), p. 1-24
    Abstract: The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset is used to examine projected changes in temperature and precipitation over the United States (U.S.), Central America and the Caribbean. The changes are computed using an ensemble of 31 models for three future time slices (2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2080–2099) relative to the reference period (1995–2014) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs; SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The CMIP6 ensemble reproduces the observed annual cycle and distribution of mean annual temperature and precipitation with biases between − 0.93 and 1.27 °C and − 37.90 to 58.45%, respectively, for most of the region. However, modeled precipitation is too large over the western and Midwestern U.S. during winter and spring and over the North American monsoon region in summer, while too small over southern Central America. Temperature is projected to increase over the entire domain under all three SSPs, by as much as 6 °C under SSP5-8.5, and with more pronounced increases in the northern latitudes over the regions that receive snow in the present climate. Annual precipitation projections for the end of the twenty-first century have more uncertainty, as expected, and exhibit a meridional dipole-like pattern, with precipitation increasing by 10–30% over much of the U.S. and decreasing by 10–40% over Central America and the Caribbean, especially over the monsoon region. Seasonally, precipitation over the eastern and central subregions is projected to increase during winter and spring and decrease during summer and autumn. Over the monsoon region and Central America, precipitation is projected to decrease in all seasons except autumn. The analysis was repeated on a subset of 9 models with the best performance in the reference period; however, no significant difference was found, suggesting that model bias is not strongly influencing the projections.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2509-9426 , 2509-9434
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1007/s41748-021-00199-5
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2892530-0
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