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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    High-Impact Extratropical Cyclones along the Northeast Coast of the United States in a Long Coupled Climate Model Simulation
    American Meteorological Society ; 2019
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 32, No. 7 ( 2019-04-01), p. 2131-2143
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 32, No. 7 ( 2019-04-01), p. 2131-2143
    Abstract: High-impact extratropical cyclones (ETCs) cause considerable damage along the northeast coast of the United States through strong winds and inundation, but these relatively rare events are difficult to analyze owing to limited historical records. Using a 1505-yr simulation from the GFDL FLOR coupled model, statistical analyses of extreme events are performed including exceedance probability computations to compare estimates from shorter segments to estimates that could be obtained from a record of considerable length. The most extreme events possess characteristics including exceptionally low central pressure, hurricane-force winds, and a large surge potential, which would greatly impact nearby regions. Return level estimates of metrics of ETC intensity using shorter, historical-length segments of the FLOR simulation are underestimated compared to levels determined using the full simulation. This indicates that if the underlying distributions of observed ETC metrics are similar to those of the 1505-yr FLOR distributions, the actual frequency of extreme ETC events could also be underestimated. Comparisons between FLOR and reanalysis products suggest that not all features of simulated high-impact ETCs are representative of observations. Spatial track densities are similar, but FLOR exhibits a negative bias in central pressure and a positive bias in wind speed, particularly for more intense events. Although the existence of these model biases precludes the quantitative use of model-derived return statistics as a substitute for those derived from shorter observational records, this work suggests that statistics from future models of higher fidelity could be used to better constrain the probability of extreme ETC events and their impacts.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0376.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Synoptic Characteristics of Surge-Producing Extratropical Cyclones along the Northeast Coast of the United States
    American Meteorological Society ; 2018
    In:  Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology Vol. 57, No. 1 ( 2018-01), p. 171-184
    Details
    In: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 57, No. 1 ( 2018-01), p. 171-184
    Abstract: Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are responsible for most of the large storm-surge events in the northeastern United States. This study uses the ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis of the twentieth century (ERA-20C) and NOAA tide gauge data to examine the local, regional, and large-scale atmospheric circulation accompanying the 100 largest ETC-driven surge events at three locations along the northeastern coast of the United States: Sewells Point (Norfolk), Virginia; the Battery (New York City), New York; and Boston, Massachusetts. Results from a k -means cluster analysis indicate that the largest surges are generated when slowly propagating ETCs encounter a strong anticyclone, which produces a tighter pressure gradient and longer duration of onshore winds. The strength of the anticyclone is evident in the middle and upper troposphere where there are positive 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies overlying the surface anticyclone for the majority of clusters and nearly all of the five biggest surge events. Multiple clusters feature a slower-than-average storm and a strong anticyclone, indicating that various circulation scenarios can produce a large storm surge. This favorable environment for large surge events is influenced by well-known modes of climate variability including El Niño, the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern. ETCs are more likely to produce a large surge during El Niño conditions, which have been shown to enhance the East Coast storm track. At Boston and the Battery, maximum surge occurs preferentially during the positive phase of PNA and the negative phases of AO/NAO.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1558-8424 , 1558-8432
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0123.1
    RVK:
    UA 4547
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2227779-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2227759-6
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Projected Impact of Mid-21st Century Climate Change on Wildfire Hazard in a Major Urban Watershed outside Portland, Oregon USA
    MDPI AG ; 2020
    In:  Fire Vol. 3, No. 4 ( 2020-12-08), p. 70-
    Details
    In: Fire, MDPI AG, Vol. 3, No. 4 ( 2020-12-08), p. 70-
    Abstract: Characterizing wildfire regimes where wildfires are uncommon is challenged by a lack of empirical information. Moreover, climate change is projected to lead to increasingly frequent wildfires and additional annual area burned in forests historically characterized by long fire return intervals. Western Oregon and Washington, USA (westside) have experienced few large wildfires (fires greater than 100 hectares) the past century and are characterized to infrequent large fires with return intervals greater than 500 years. We evaluated impacts of climate change on wildfire hazard in a major urban watershed outside Portland, OR, USA. We simulated wildfire occurrence and fire regime characteristics under contemporary conditions (1992–2015) and four mid-century (2040–2069) scenarios using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. Simulated mid-century fire seasons expanded in most scenarios, in some cases by nearly two months. In all scenarios, average fire size and frequency projections increased significantly. Fire regime characteristics under the hottest and driest mid-century scenarios illustrate novel disturbance regimes which could result in permanent changes to forest structure and composition and the provision of ecosystem services. Managers and planners can use the range of modeled outputs and simulation results to inform robust strategies for climate adaptation and risk mitigation.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2571-6255
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.3390/fire3040070
    Language: English
    Publisher: MDPI AG
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2924038-4
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    A 30-Yr Climatology of Meteorological Conditions Associated with Lightning Days in the Interior Western United States
    American Meteorological Society ; 2020
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 33, No. 9 ( 2020-05-01), p. 3771-3785
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 33, No. 9 ( 2020-05-01), p. 3771-3785
    Abstract: A 30-yr climatology of lightning days and associated synoptic meteorological patterns are characterized across the interior western United States (WUS). Locally centered composite analyses show preferred synoptic meteorological patterns with positive 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies located to the northeast and negative sea level pressure anomalies to the northwest and collocated with local lightning days. Variations in preferred patterns for local lightning days are seen across the interior WUS. Areas not commonly affected by the North American monsoon system including the western Great Basin and northern Rocky Mountains show higher-amplitude anomalies of geopotential height, moisture, and midtropospheric instability patterns suggesting the importance of episodic midlatitude dynamics to lightning days in such locations. By contrast, locations closer to the core of the North American monsoon show weaker anomalies, likely reflecting the prevalence of favorable mesoscale dynamics key to lightning production during warm-season months in locations in the interior Southwest. Meteorological patterns for select locations are explored in more detail and two case studies of notably active lightning events are presented. Results from this observational analysis provide a foundation for evaluating meteorological conditions on lightning days in climate model simulations for the interior WUS.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0564.1
    DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0564.s1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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