In:
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science (PLoS), Vol. 16, No. 12 ( 2022-12-22), p. e0010863-
Abstract:
The importance of mosquitoes in human pathogen transmission has motivated major research efforts into mosquito biology in pursuit of more effective vector control measures. Aedes aegypti is a particular concern in tropical urban areas, where it is the primary vector of numerous flaviviruses, including the yellow fever, Zika, and dengue viruses. With an anthropophilic habit, Ae. aegypti prefers houses, human blood meals, and ovipositioning in water-filled containers. We hypothesized that this relatively simple ecological niche should allow us to predict the impacts of insecticidal control measures on mosquito populations. To do this, we use Skeeter Buster 2 (SB2), a stochastic, spatially explicit, mechanistic model of Ae. aegypti population biology. SB2 builds on Skeeter Buster, which reproduced equilibrium dynamics of Ae. aegypti in Iquitos, Peru. Our goal was to validate SB2 by predicting the response of mosquito populations to perturbations by indoor insecticidal spraying and widespread destructive insect surveys. To evaluate SB2, we conducted two field experiments in Iquitos, Peru: a smaller pilot study in 2013 (S-2013) followed by a larger experiment in 2014 (L-2014). Here, we compare model predictions with (previously reported) empirical results from these experiments. In both simulated and empirical populations, repeated spraying yielded substantial yet temporary reductions in adult densities. The proportional effects of spraying were broadly comparable between simulated and empirical results, but we found noteworthy differences. In particular, SB2 consistently over-estimated the proportion of nulliparous females and the proportion of containers holding immature mosquitoes. We also observed less temporal variation in simulated surveys of adult abundance relative to corresponding empirical observations. Our results indicate the presence of ecological heterogeneities or sampling processes not effectively represented by SB2. Although additional empirical research could further improve the accuracy and precision of SB2, our results underscore the importance of non-linear dynamics in the response of Ae. aegypti populations to perturbations, and suggest general limits to the fine-grained predictability of its population dynamics over space and time.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
1935-2735
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010863
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010863.g001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010863.g002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010863.g003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010863.g004
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010863.g005
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010863.g006
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010863.g007
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010863.g008
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010863.g009
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010863.t001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010863.s001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010863.s002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010863.s003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010863.s004
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010863.s005
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010863.s006
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010863.s007
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010863.s008
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010863.s009
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010863.s010
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010863.s011
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010863.s012
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010863.r001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010863.r002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010863.r003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010863.r004
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010863.r005
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010863.r006
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010863.r007
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010863.r008
Language:
English
Publisher:
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Publication Date:
2022
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2429704-5
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