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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones. Part I: Cyclone Evolution and Direct Impacts
    American Meteorological Society ; 2017
    In:  Monthly Weather Review Vol. 145, No. 11 ( 2017-11), p. 4317-4344
    Details
    In: Monthly Weather Review, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 145, No. 11 ( 2017-11), p. 4317-4344
    Abstract: Extratropical transition (ET) is the process by which a tropical cyclone, upon encountering a baroclinic environment and reduced sea surface temperature at higher latitudes, transforms into an extratropical cyclone. This process is influenced by, and influences, phenomena from the tropics to the midlatitudes and from the meso- to the planetary scales to extents that vary between individual events. Motivated in part by recent high-impact and/or extensively observed events such as North Atlantic Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and western North Pacific Typhoon Sinlaku in 2008, this review details advances in understanding and predicting ET since the publication of an earlier review in 2003. Methods for diagnosing ET in reanalysis, observational, and model-forecast datasets are discussed. New climatologies for the eastern North Pacific and southwest Indian Oceans are presented alongside updates to western North Pacific and North Atlantic Ocean climatologies. Advances in understanding and, in some cases, modeling the direct impacts of ET-related wind, waves, and precipitation are noted. Improved understanding of structural evolution throughout the transformation stage of ET fostered in large part by novel aircraft observations collected in several recent ET events is highlighted. Predictive skill for operational and numerical model ET-related forecasts is discussed along with environmental factors influencing posttransition cyclone structure and evolution. Operational ET forecast and analysis practices and challenges are detailed. In particular, some challenges of effective hazard communication for the evolving threats posed by a tropical cyclone during and after transition are introduced. This review concludes with recommendations for future work to further improve understanding, forecasts, and hazard communication.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-0644 , 1520-0493
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-17-0027.1
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2017
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    An Analysis of Multiple Predecessor Rain Events ahead of Tropical Cyclones Ike and Lowell: 10–15 September 2008
    American Meteorological Society ; 2012
    In:  Monthly Weather Review Vol. 140, No. 4 ( 2012-04), p. 1081-1107
    Details
    In: Monthly Weather Review, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 140, No. 4 ( 2012-04), p. 1081-1107
    Abstract: An analysis of three predecessor rain events (PREs) that occurred ahead of North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) Ike and east Pacific TC Lowell during 10–15 September 2008 is presented. The three PREs produced all-time daily record rainfall at many locations, including Lubbock, Texas (189.5 mm); Wichita, Kansas (262 mm); and Chicago–O’Hare, Illinois (169 mm), on 11–13 September, respectively. PRE 1 organized over Texas on 10 September with moisture from a stalled frontal boundary and the Bay of Campeche, and matured with moisture from TC Lowell. PRE 2 organized over the Texas Panhandle on 11 September with moisture from the Bay of Campeche, and developed and matured over Kansas and Missouri with moisture from TC Lowell. PRE 3 developed over Texas on 11 September, merged with and absorbed PRE 2 over Kansas and Missouri, and matured as it ingested moisture from TC Ike. All three PREs matured in the equatorward entrance region of an intensifying subtropical jet stream (STJ). Heavy rainfall with the three PREs occurred along a plume of moist air characterized by high precipitable water values that extended poleward over the central United States near the juxtaposition of the nose of a low-level jet, a region of lower-tropospheric forcing for ascent along a surface baroclinic zone, and the STJ equatorward entrance region. The cumulative upscale effect of persistent deep convection from the three PREs enhanced and “locked in” a favorable upper-tropospheric flow pattern conducive to ridge development over the Ohio Valley and STJ intensification over the central U.S. and Great Lakes region.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-0644 , 1520-0493
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-11-00163.1
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2012
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2033056-X
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  • 3
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    Online Resource
    The Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud-Systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) Field Campaign: Perspectives of Early Career Scientists
    American Meteorological Society ; 2012
    In:  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 93, No. 2 ( 2012-02), p. 173-187
    Details
    In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, No. 2 ( 2012-02), p. 173-187
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0003-0007 , 1520-0477
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00024.1
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2012
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2029396-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 419957-1
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  • 4
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    A Phase Locking Perspective on Rossby Wave Amplification and Atmospheric Blocking Downstream of Recurving Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones
    American Meteorological Society ; 2019
    In:  Monthly Weather Review Vol. 147, No. 2 ( 2019-02-01), p. 567-589
    Details
    In: Monthly Weather Review, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 147, No. 2 ( 2019-02-01), p. 567-589
    Abstract: The extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones (TCs) can significantly influence the evolution of the midlatitude flow. However, the interaction between recurving TCs and upstream upper-level troughs features a large and partly unexplained case-to-case variability. In this study, a synoptic, feature-based climatology of TC–trough interactions is constructed to discriminate recurving TCs that interact with decelerating and accelerating troughs. Upper-level troughs reducing their eastward propagation speed during the interaction with recurving TCs exhibit phase locking with lower-level temperature anomalies and are linked to pronounced downstream Rossby wave amplification. Conversely, accelerating troughs do not exhibit phase locking and are associated with a nonsignificant downstream impact. Irrotational outflow near the tropopause associated with latent heat release in regions of heavy precipitation near the transitioning storm can promote phase locking (via enhancement of trough deceleration) and further enhance the downstream impact (via advection of air with low potential vorticity in the direction of the waveguide). These different impacts affect the probability of atmospheric blocking at the end of the Pacific storm track, which is generally higher if a TC–trough interaction occurs in the western North Pacific. Blocking in the eastern North Pacific is up to 3 times more likely than climatology if an interaction between a TC and a decelerating trough occurs upstream, whereas no statistical deviation with respect to climatology is observed for accelerating troughs. The outlined results support the hypothesis that differences in phase locking can explain the observed variability in the downstream impact of ET.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-0644 , 1520-0493
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-18-0271.1
    DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-18-0271.s1
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2033056-X
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones. Part II: Interaction with the Midlatitude Flow, Downstream Impacts, and Implications for Predictability
    American Meteorological Society ; 2019
    In:  Monthly Weather Review Vol. 147, No. 4 ( 2019-04-01), p. 1077-1106
    Details
    In: Monthly Weather Review, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 147, No. 4 ( 2019-04-01), p. 1077-1106
    Abstract: The extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones often has an important impact on the nature and predictability of the midlatitude flow. This review synthesizes the current understanding of the dynamical and physical processes that govern this impact and highlights the relationship of downstream development during ET to high-impact weather, with a focus on downstream regions. It updates a previous review from 2003 and identifies new and emerging challenges and future research needs. First, the mechanisms through which the transitioning cyclone impacts the midlatitude flow in its immediate vicinity are discussed. This “direct impact” manifests in the formation of a jet streak and the amplification of a ridge directly downstream of the cyclone. This initial flow modification triggers or amplifies a midlatitude Rossby wave packet, which disperses the impact of ET into downstream regions (downstream impact) and may contribute to the formation of high-impact weather. Details are provided concerning the impact of ET on forecast uncertainty in downstream regions and on the impact of observations on forecast skill. The sources and characteristics of the following key features and processes that may determine the manifestation of the impact of ET on the midlatitude flow are discussed: the upper-tropospheric divergent outflow, mainly associated with latent heat release in the troposphere below, and the phasing between the transitioning cyclone and the midlatitude wave pattern. Improving the representation of diabatic processes during ET in models and a climatological assessment of the ET’s impact on downstream high-impact weather are examples for future research directions.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-0644 , 1520-0493
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-17-0329.1
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2033056-X
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    A Composite Perspective of the Extratropical Flow Response to Recurving Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones
    American Meteorological Society ; 2015
    In:  Monthly Weather Review Vol. 143, No. 4 ( 2015-04-01), p. 1122-1141
    Details
    In: Monthly Weather Review, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 143, No. 4 ( 2015-04-01), p. 1122-1141
    Abstract: This study investigates the composite extratropical flow response to recurving western North Pacific tropical cyclones (WNP TCs), and the dependence of this response on the strength of the TC–extratropical flow interaction as defined by the negative potential vorticity advection (PV) by the irrotational wind associated with the TC. The 2.5° NCEP–NCAR reanalysis is used to construct composite analyses of all 1979–2009 recurving WNP TCs and of subsets that undergo strong and weak TC–extratropical flow interactions. Findings indicate that recurving WNP TCs are associated with the amplification of a preexisting Rossby wave train (RWT) that disperses downstream and modifies the large-scale flow pattern over North America. This RWT affects approximately 240° of longitude and persists for approximately 10 days. Recurving TCs associated with strong TC–extratropical flow interactions are associated with a stronger extratropical flow response than those associated with weak TC–extratropical flow interactions. Compared with weak interactions, strong interactions feature a more distinct upstream trough, stronger and broader divergent outflow associated with stronger midlevel frontogenesis and forcing for ascent over and northeast of the TC, and stronger upper-level PV frontogenesis that promotes more pronounced jet streak intensification. During strong interactions, divergent outflow helps anchor and amplify a downstream ridge, thereby amplifying a preexisting RWT from Asia that disperses downstream to North America. In contrast, during weak interactions, divergent outflow weakly amplifies a downstream ridge, such that a RWT briefly amplifies in situ before dissipating over the western-central North Pacific.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-0644 , 1520-0493
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-14-00270.1
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2015
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  • 7
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    Interactions of North Pacific Tropical, Midlatitude, and Polar Disturbances Resulting in Linked Extreme Weather Events over North America in October 2007
    American Meteorological Society ; 2017
    In:  Monthly Weather Review Vol. 145, No. 4 ( 2017-04-01), p. 1245-1273
    Details
    In: Monthly Weather Review, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 145, No. 4 ( 2017-04-01), p. 1245-1273
    Abstract: This study uses observations and model reanalyses to examine the multiscale processes associated with four high-impact extreme weather events (EWEs) over North America during late October 2007. The EWEs consisted of wind-driven wildfires in California, prolonged anomalous cold conditions in Mexico linked to two cold surges, heavy rainfall in the eastern United States, and severe flood-producing heavy rainfall in southern Mexico. The EWEs involved a pronounced large-scale flow reconfiguration across the North Pacific and North America in conjunction with the formation of a high-amplitude Rossby wave train. The flow reconfiguration involved perturbations to the North Pacific jet stream linked to polar, midlatitude, and tropical disturbances, including three tropopause-level polar disturbances originating over northeastern Asia, transient extratropical cyclones, a diabatic Rossby vortex, and western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Kajiki. Eulerian and Lagrangian diagnostics indicate that ridge amplification within the wave train was enhanced in connection with latent heat release along warm conveyor belts rooted in the tropics and subtropics over the North Pacific. Two anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking events over North America established synoptic-scale conditions that supported the EWEs. The results highlight how the large- and synoptic-scale flow can evolve to facilitate multiple geographically separated but dynamically linked EWEs. Based on the results, it is posited that during autumn the North Pacific jet stream may be particularly conducive to large-scale flow amplification, possibly resulting in EWEs, in response to perturbations associated with tropical, midlatitude, and polar disturbances.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-0644 , 1520-0493
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-16-0230.1
    DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-16-0230.s1
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2017
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  • 8
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    Online Resource
    The Key Role of Diabatic Outflow in Amplifying the Midlatitude Flow: A Representative Case Study of Weather Systems Surrounding Western North Pacific Extratropical Transition
    American Meteorological Society ; 2016
    In:  Monthly Weather Review Vol. 144, No. 10 ( 2016-10), p. 3847-3869
    Details
    In: Monthly Weather Review, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 144, No. 10 ( 2016-10), p. 3847-3869
    Abstract: Recurving tropical cyclones (TCs) undergoing extratropical transition (ET) may substantially modify the large-scale midlatitude flow pattern. This study highlights the role of diabatic outflow in midlatitude flow amplification within the context of a review of the physical and dynamical processes involved in ET. Composite fields of 12 western North Pacific ET cases are used as initial and boundary conditions for high-resolution numerical simulations of the North Pacific–North American sector with and without the TC present. It is demonstrated that a three-stage sequence of diabatic outflow associated with different weather systems is involved in triggering a highly amplified midlatitude flow pattern: 1) preconditioning by a predecessor rain event (PRE), 2) TC–extratropical flow interaction, and 3) downstream flow amplification by a downstream warm conveyor belt (WCB). An ensemble of perturbed simulations demonstrates the robustness of these stages. Beyond earlier studies investigating PREs, recurving TCs, and WCBs individually, here the fact that each impacts the midlatitude flow through a similar sequence of processes surrounding ET is highlighted. Latent heat release in rapidly ascending air leads to a net transport of low-PV air into the upper troposphere. Negative PV advection by the diabatically driven outflow initiates ridge building, accelerates and anchors a midlatitude jet streak, and overall amplifies the upper-level Rossby wave pattern. However, the three weather systems markedly differ in terms of the character of diabatic heating and associated outflow height, with the TC outflow reaching highest and the downstream WCB outflow producing the strongest negative PV anomaly.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-0644 , 1520-0493
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0419.1
    DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0419.s1
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2016
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  • 9
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    A Climatological Analysis of the Extratropical Flow Response to Recurving Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones
    American Meteorological Society ; 2013
    In:  Monthly Weather Review Vol. 141, No. 7 ( 2013-07-01), p. 2325-2346
    Details
    In: Monthly Weather Review, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 141, No. 7 ( 2013-07-01), p. 2325-2346
    Abstract: Although prior studies have established that the extratropical flow pattern often amplifies downstream of recurving tropical cyclones (TCs), the extratropical flow response to recurving TCs has not to the authors' knowledge been systematically examined from a climatological perspective. In this study, a climatology of the extratropical flow response to recurving western North Pacific TCs is constructed from 292 cases of TC recurvature during 1979–2009. The extratropical flow response to TC recurvature is evaluated based on a time-lagged composite time series of an index of the North Pacific meridional flow surrounding TC recurvature. Similar time series are constructed for recurving TCs stratified by characteristics of the large-scale flow pattern, the TC, and the phasing between the TC and the extratropical flow to assess factors influencing the extratropical flow response to TC recurvature. Results reveal that following TC recurvature, significantly amplified flow develops over the North Pacific and persists for ~4 days. The tendency for significantly amplified North Pacific flow to develop following TC recurvature is sensitive to the strength of the TC–extratropical flow interaction (the phasing between the TC and the extratropical flow), which is based on the negative potential vorticity advection by the divergent outflow of the TC. In contrast, the tendency for significantly amplified North Pacific flow to develop following TC recurvature is relatively insensitive to the intensity or size of the recurving TC, or whether it subsequently reintensifies after becoming extratropical.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-0644 , 1520-0493
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-12-00257.1
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2013
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2033056-X
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  • 10
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    A Comparison of South American and African Preferential Pathways for Extreme Cold Events
    American Meteorological Society ; 2013
    In:  Monthly Weather Review Vol. 141, No. 6 ( 2013-06), p. 2066-2086
    Details
    In: Monthly Weather Review, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 141, No. 6 ( 2013-06), p. 2066-2086
    Abstract: In the Southern Hemisphere, a relatively well-known preferential pathway along which cold air surges equatorward is situated to the east of the Andes Mountains. In this study, a second preferred pathway is identified to the east of the African Highlands, with additional minor pathways identified east of the Brazilian Highlands and Madagascar. The primary objective of this study is to compare climatological and synoptic characteristics of extreme cold events (ECEs) along the Andes and African Highlands pathways. ECEs are defined as the top 1% coldest 925-hPa temperatures within the Andes and the African Highlands pathways using the 1977–2001 subset of the 2.5° × 2.5° 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40). ECEs within the Andes and African Highlands pathways are associated with dynamically forced anticyclogenesis and have low-level characteristics that vary substantially. Along the Andes pathway, ECEs feature 925-hPa temperatures as much as 17°C below normal, with 925-hPa southerly winds ranging from 0 to 10 m s −1 and 925–700-hPa lapse rates as low as −3°C km −1 . In contrast, ECEs along the African Highlands pathway feature 925-hPa temperatures up to 10°C below normal, with 925-hPa southerly winds ranging from 5 to 15 m s −1 , and 925–700-hPa lapse rates generally between 2° and 5°C km −1 . Composite analyses reveal that despite stronger southerly winds, ECEs along the African Highlands pathway are typically not as cold or stable as those along the Andes pathway because cold air from Antarctica must traverse a longer distance over water to reach Africa.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-0644 , 1520-0493
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-12-00202.1
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2013
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2033056-X
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    SSG: 14
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