In:
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, The Royal Society, Vol. 273, No. 1592 ( 2006-06-07), p. 1307-1316
Abstract:
We use a mathematical model to study the evolution of influenza A during the epidemic dynamics of a single season. Classifying strains by their distance from the epidemic-originating strain, we show that neutral mutation yields a constant rate of antigenic evolution, even in the presence of epidemic dynamics. We introduce host immunity and viral immune escape to construct a non-neutral model. Our population dynamics can then be framed naturally in the context of population genetics, and we show that departure from neutrality is governed by the covariance between a strain's fitness and its distance from the original epidemic strain. We quantify the amount of antigenic evolution that takes place in excess of what is expected under neutrality and find that this excess amount is largest under strong host immunity and long epidemics.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
0962-8452
,
1471-2954
DOI:
10.1098/rspb.2006.3466
Language:
English
Publisher:
The Royal Society
Publication Date:
2006
detail.hit.zdb_id:
1460975-7
SSG:
12
SSG:
25
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