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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Global exposure of population and land‐use to meteorological droughts under different warming levels and SSPs : A CORDEX ‐based study
    Wiley ; 2021
    In:  International Journal of Climatology Vol. 41, No. 15 ( 2021-12), p. 6825-6853
    Details
    In: International Journal of Climatology, Wiley, Vol. 41, No. 15 ( 2021-12), p. 6825-6853
    Abstract: Global warming is likely to cause a progressive drought increase in some regions, but how population and natural resources will be affected is still underexplored. This study focuses on global population, forests, croplands and pastures exposure to meteorological drought hazard in the 21st century, expressed as frequency and severity of drought events. As input, we use a large ensemble of climate simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), population projections from the NASA‐SEDAC dataset and land‐use projections from the Land‐Use Harmonization 2 project for 1981–2100. The exposure to drought hazard is presented for five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1‐SSP5) at four Global Warming Levels (GWLs: 1.5°C to 4°C). Results show that considering only Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI; based on precipitation), the SSP3 at GWL4 projects the largest fraction of the global population (14%) to experience an increase in drought frequency and severity (versus 1981–2010), with this value increasing to 60% if temperature is considered (indirectly included in the Standardized Precipitation‐Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI). With SPEI, considering the highest GWL for each SSP, 8 (for SSP2, SSP4, SSP5) and 11 (SSP3) billion people, that is, more than 90%, will be affected by at least one unprecedented drought. For SSP5 at GWL4, approximately 2 × 10 6  km 2 of forests and croplands (respectively, 6% and 11%) and 1.5 × 10 6  km 2 of pastures (19%) will be exposed to increased drought frequency and severity according to SPI, but for SPEI this extent will rise to 17 × 10 6  km 2 of forests (49%), 6 × 10 6  km 2 of pastures (78%) and 12 × 10 6  km 2 of croplands (67%), being mid‐latitudes the most affected. The projected likely increase of drought frequency and severity significantly increases population and land‐use exposure to drought, even at low GWLs, thus extensive mitigation and adaptation efforts are needed to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0899-8418 , 1097-0088
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1002/joc.v41.15
    DOI: 10.1002/joc.7302
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1491204-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1000947-4
    SSG: 14
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  • 2
    Online Resource
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    Future Global Meteorological Drought Hot Spots: A Study Based on CORDEX Data
    American Meteorological Society ; 2020
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 33, No. 9 ( 2020-05-01), p. 3635-3661
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 33, No. 9 ( 2020-05-01), p. 3635-3661
    Abstract: Two questions motivated this study: 1) Will meteorological droughts become more frequent and severe during the twenty-first century? 2) Given the projected global temperature rise, to what extent does the inclusion of temperature (in addition to precipitation) in drought indicators play a role in future meteorological droughts? To answer, we analyzed the changes in drought frequency, severity, and historically undocumented extreme droughts over 1981–2100, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI; including precipitation only) and standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI; indirectly including temperature), and under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). As input data, we employed 103 high-resolution (0.44°) simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), based on a combination of 16 global circulation models (GCMs) and 20 regional circulation models (RCMs). This is the first study on global drought projections including RCMs based on such a large ensemble of RCMs. Based on precipitation only, ~15% of the global land is likely to experience more frequent and severe droughts during 2071–2100 versus 1981–2010 for both scenarios. This increase is larger (~47% under RCP4.5, ~49% under RCP8.5) when precipitation and temperature are used. Both SPI and SPEI project more frequent and severe droughts, especially under RCP8.5, over southern South America, the Mediterranean region, southern Africa, southeastern China, Japan, and southern Australia. A decrease in drought is projected for high latitudes in Northern Hemisphere and Southeast Asia. If temperature is included, drought characteristics are projected to increase over North America, Amazonia, central Europe and Asia, the Horn of Africa, India, and central Australia; if only precipitation is considered, they are found to decrease over those areas.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0084.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 3
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    Global-scale drought risk assessment for agricultural systems
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2020
    In:  Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Vol. 20, No. 2 ( 2020-03-02), p. 695-712
    Details
    In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 20, No. 2 ( 2020-03-02), p. 695-712
    Abstract: Abstract. Droughts continue to affect ecosystems, communities and entire economies. Agriculture bears much of the impact, and in many countries it is the most heavily affected sector. Over the past decades, efforts have been made to assess drought risk at different spatial scales. Here, we present for the first time an integrated assessment of drought risk for both irrigated and rainfed agricultural systems at the global scale. Composite hazard indicators were calculated for irrigated and rainfed systems separately using different drought indices based on historical climate conditions (1980–2016). Exposure was analyzed for irrigated and non-irrigated crops. Vulnerability was assessed through a socioecological-system (SES) perspective, using socioecological susceptibility and lack of coping-capacity indicators that were weighted by drought experts from around the world. The analysis shows that drought risk of rainfed and irrigated agricultural systems displays a heterogeneous pattern at the global level, with higher risk for southeastern Europe as well as northern and southern Africa. By providing information on the drivers and spatial patterns of drought risk in all dimensions of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, the presented analysis can support the identification of tailored measures to reduce drought risk and increase the resilience of agricultural systems.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1684-9981
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/nhess-20-695-2020
    DOI: 10.5194/nhess-20-695-2020-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2064587-9
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  • 4
    Online Resource
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    Changes of heating and cooling degree‐days in Europe from 1981 to 2100
    Wiley ; 2018
    In:  International Journal of Climatology Vol. 38, No. S1 ( 2018-04)
    Details
    In: International Journal of Climatology, Wiley, Vol. 38, No. S1 ( 2018-04)
    Abstract: During the last decades, the effects of global warming have become apparent also in Europe, causing relevant impacts in many sectors. Under projected future global warming, such a tendency can be expected to persist until the end of this century and beyond. Identifying which climate‐related impacts are likely to increase, and by how much, is an important element of any effective strategy for managing future climate risks. This study investigates whether energy demand for cooling and heating buildings can be expected to increase or decrease under climate change. Two indicators of weather‐related energy consumption for heating and cooling buildings are considered: heating degree‐days (HDD) and cooling degree‐days (CDD). The evolution of these indicators has been analysed based on 11 high‐resolution bias‐adjusted EURO‐CORDEX simulations for two emission representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Both indicators have been validated over the period 1981–2010 using an independent data set that contains more than 4000 station data, showing very high correlation over most of Europe. Trends of HDD and CDD from 1981 to 2100, together with their uncertainties, are analysed. For both RCPs, all simulations project a significant decrease for HDD, especially over Scandinavia and European Russia, and an increase of CDD which peaks over the Mediterranean region and the Balkans. Overall, degree‐day trends do not show remarkable differences if population weighting is applied. If a constant population scenario is considered, the decrease in HDD will outbalance the increase in CDD in the 21st century over most of Europe. Thus the related energy demand (expressed as Energy Degree‐days, EDD) is expected to decrease. If, however, population projections over the 21st century are included in the calculations, it is shown that despite the persisting warming, EDD will increase over northern Europe, the Baltic countries, Great Britain, Ireland, Benelux, the Alps, Spain, and Cyprus, resulting in an overall increase in EDD over Europe.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0899-8418 , 1097-0088
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1002/joc.2018.38.issue-S1
    DOI: 10.1002/joc.5362
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1491204-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1000947-4
    SSG: 14
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  • 5
    Online Resource
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    Global population‐weighted degree‐day projections for a combination of climate and socio‐economic scenarios
    Wiley ; 2021
    In:  International Journal of Climatology Vol. 41, No. 11 ( 2021-09), p. 5447-5464
    Details
    In: International Journal of Climatology, Wiley, Vol. 41, No. 11 ( 2021-09), p. 5447-5464
    Abstract: The projected global temperature increase in the 21st century is expected to have consequences on energy consumption due to increase (decrease) in energy demand to cool (heat) the built environments. Such increase (decrease) also depends on the number of end users for such energy, thus it is crucial to include population into the analyses. This study presents population‐weighted (w) cooling (CDD), heating (HDD), and energy (EDD) degree‐day projections at global, regional, and local scales for the 21st century. We used a large ensemble of high‐resolution (0.44°) climate simulations from the COordinated Regional‐climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) to compute degree‐days for baseline (1981–2010) and global warming levels (GWLs from 1.5°C to 4°C), based on two representative concentration pathways. We used population projections from the NASA‐SEDAC datasets, driven by five socio‐economic scenarios (SSPs). The progressive increase in CDD outbalances the decrease in HDD in Central and South America, Africa, and Oceania and the opposite situation is likely to occur in North America, Europe, and Asia; at global scale, they are balanced. However, if results are weighted according to population, the increase in wCDD outbalances the decrease in wHDD almost everywhere for most GWLs and SSPs. Few regions show a decreasing tendency in wEDD at high GWLs for all SSPs: central Europe, northwestern, northeastern, and eastern Asia. Globally, wEDD are likely to double at 2°C compared to 1981–2010 independently of the SSP. Under the worst‐case scenario (SSP3), at 4°C wCDD are approximately 380% higher and wHDD approximately 30% lower than in the recent past, leading to an increase in wEDD close to 300%.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0899-8418 , 1097-0088
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1002/joc.v41.11
    DOI: 10.1002/joc.7328
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1491204-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1000947-4
    SSG: 14
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  • 6
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    The effects of non‐stationarity on SPI for operational drought monitoring in Europe
    Wiley ; 2022
    In:  International Journal of Climatology Vol. 42, No. 6 ( 2022-05), p. 3418-3430
    Details
    In: International Journal of Climatology, Wiley, Vol. 42, No. 6 ( 2022-05), p. 3418-3430
    Abstract: It is a good practice to follow common guidelines in the computation of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) data sets as part of operational drought monitoring systems. In the European Drought Observatory ( https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ ), reference statistics are computed following the World Meteorological Organization Guidelines on the Calculation of Climate Normals, where a definition of the reference period for monitoring applications is introduced as the most recent 30‐year period finishing in a year ending with 0. In this study, the temporal consistency of the SPI time series computed using the fifth‐generation European Centre for Medium‐range Weather Forecast reanalyses model precipitation data set is tested over Europe to quantify the effect of the transition from one baseline period (1981–2010) to another (1991–2020) and to evaluate the capability of these static baselines to reproduce the behaviour of non‐stationary SPIs (nSPIs). The results of the comparison suggest that the threshold commonly used to identify droughts (SPI = −1) is only marginally affected by the change in reference period (mean absolute deviation, MAD = 0.15 ± 0.1) for short‐term SPI, whereas larger differences (MAD up to 0.6) can be observed over certain areas (i.e., Southern Italy and Eastern Europe) for longer accumulation periods (i.e., SPI‐9 or SPI‐12). Examples show that changes in drought classification from extremely dry (SPI  〈  −2) to moderately dry (SPI  〈  −1) are not uncommon, which may lead to misinterpretation by users. Finally, analyses against nSPI highlight an overall good correspondence between stationary and nSPIs, even if both static baselines displayed difficulties in reliably capturing the magnitude of nSPI for the entire 10‐year period for which they should be used. In this regard, it has been demonstrated that more spatially uniform results can be achieved with 5‐year updates, with a good matching (MAD 〈 0.25) for SPI‐1 and an acceptable matching (MAD 〈  0.50) for SPI‐12 over more than 80% of Europe.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0899-8418 , 1097-0088
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1002/joc.v42.6
    DOI: 10.1002/joc.7424
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1491204-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1000947-4
    SSG: 14
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  • 7
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    Deriving drainage networks and catchment boundaries: a new methodology combining digital elevation data and environmental characteristics
    Elsevier BV ; 2003
    In:  Geomorphology Vol. 53, No. 3-4 ( 2003-7), p. 281-298
    Details
    In: Geomorphology, Elsevier BV, Vol. 53, No. 3-4 ( 2003-7), p. 281-298
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0169-555X
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1016/S0169-555X(02)00319-7
    Language: English
    Publisher: Elsevier BV
    Publication Date: 2003
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 58028-4
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  • 8
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    Towards Global Drought Early Warning Capability: Expanding international cooperation for the development of a framework for global drought monitoring and forecasting
    American Meteorological Society ; 2013
    In:  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society ( 2013-01-21), p. 130121120822004-
    Details
    In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, ( 2013-01-21), p. 130121120822004-
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0003-0007 , 1520-0477
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00176
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2013
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2029396-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 419957-1
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  • 9
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    Analysing the Relationship between Multiple-Timescale SPI and GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage in the Framework of Drought Monitoring
    MDPI AG ; 2019
    In:  Water Vol. 11, No. 8 ( 2019-08-13), p. 1672-
    Details
    In: Water, MDPI AG, Vol. 11, No. 8 ( 2019-08-13), p. 1672-
    Abstract: The operational monitoring of long-term hydrological droughts is often based on the standardised precipitation index (SPI) for long accumulation periods (i.e., 12 months or longer) as a proxy indicator. This is mainly due to the current lack of near-real-time observations of relevant hydrological quantities, such as groundwater levels or total water storage (TWS). In this study, the correlation between multiple-timescale SPIs (between 1 and 48 months) and GRACE-derived TWS is investigated, with the goals of: (i) evaluating the benefit of including TWS data in a drought monitoring system, and (ii) testing the potential use of SPI as a robust proxy for TWS in the absence of near-real-time measurements of the latter. The main outcomes of this study highlight the good correlation between TWS anomalies (TWSA) and long-term SPI (12, 24 and 48 months), with SPI-12 representing a global-average optimal solution (R = 0.350 ± 0.250). Unfortunately, the spatial variability of the local-optimal SPI underlines the difficulty in reliably capturing the dynamics of TWSA using a single meteorological drought index, at least at the global scale. On the contrary, over a limited area, such as Europe, the SPI-12 is able to capture most of the key traits of TWSA that are relevant for drought studies, including the occurrence of dry extreme values. In the absence of actual TWS observations, the SPI-12 seems to represent a good proxy of long-term hydrological drought over Europe, whereas the wide range of meteorological conditions and complex hydrological processes involved in the transformation of precipitation into TWS seems to limit the possibility of extending this result to the global scale.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2073-4441
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.3390/w11081672
    Language: English
    Publisher: MDPI AG
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2521238-2
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  • 10
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    The biggest drought events in Europe from 1950 to 2012
    Elsevier BV ; 2015
    In:  Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Vol. 3 ( 2015-03), p. 509-524
    Details
    In: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Elsevier BV, Vol. 3 ( 2015-03), p. 509-524
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2214-5818
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.01.001
    Language: English
    Publisher: Elsevier BV
    Publication Date: 2015
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2814784-4
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