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  • 1
    In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 113, No. 3 ( 2016-01-19), p. 793-797
    Abstract: Amazon forests, which store ∼50% of tropical forest carbon and play a vital role in global water, energy, and carbon cycling, are predicted to experience both longer and more intense dry seasons by the end of the 21st century. However, the climate sensitivity of this ecosystem remains uncertain: several studies have predicted large-scale die-back of the Amazon, whereas several more recent studies predict that the biome will remain largely intact. Combining remote-sensing and ground-based observations with a size- and age-structured terrestrial ecosystem model, we explore the sensitivity and ecological resilience of these forests to changes in climate. We demonstrate that water stress operating at the scale of individual plants, combined with spatial variation in soil texture, explains observed patterns of variation in ecosystem biomass, composition, and dynamics across the region, and strongly influences the ecosystem’s resilience to changes in dry season length. Specifically, our analysis suggests that in contrast to existing predictions of either stability or catastrophic biomass loss, the Amazon forest’s response to a drying regional climate is likely to be an immediate, graded, heterogeneous transition from high-biomass moist forests to transitional dry forests and woody savannah-like states. Fire, logging, and other anthropogenic disturbances may, however, exacerbate these climate change-induced ecosystem transitions.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-8424 , 1091-6490
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    Language: English
    Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
    Publication Date: 2016
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) ; 2000
    In:  Science Vol. 290, No. 5494 ( 2000-11-10), p. 1148-1151
    In: Science, American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), Vol. 290, No. 5494 ( 2000-11-10), p. 1148-1151
    Abstract: Carbon accumulation in forests has been attributed to historical changes in land use and the enhancement of tree growth by CO 2 fertilization, N deposition, and climate change. The relative contribution of land use and growth enhancement is estimated by using inventory data from five states spanning a latitudinal gradient in the eastern United States. Land use is the dominant factor governing the rate of carbon accumulation in these states, with growth enhancement contributing far less than previously reported. The estimated fraction of aboveground net ecosystem production due to growth enhancement is 2.0 ± 4.4%, with the remainder due to land use.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0036-8075 , 1095-9203
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    Language: English
    Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    Publication Date: 2000
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 128410-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2066996-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2060783-0
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ; 2010
    In:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 107, No. 18 ( 2010-05-04), p. 8275-8280
    In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 107, No. 18 ( 2010-05-04), p. 8275-8280
    Abstract: We assess the significance of high-frequency variability of environmental parameters (sunlight, precipitation, temperature) for the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems under current and future climate. We examine the influence of hourly, daily, and monthly variance using the Ecosystem Demography model version 2 in conjunction with the long-term record of carbon fluxes measured at Harvard Forest. We find that fluctuations of sunlight and precipitation are strongly and nonlinearly coupled to ecosystem function, with effects that accumulate through annual and decadal timescales. Increasing variability in sunlight and precipitation leads to lower rates of carbon sequestration and favors broad-leaved deciduous trees over conifers. Temperature variability has only minor impacts by comparison. We also find that projected changes in sunlight and precipitation variability have important implications for carbon storage and ecosystem structure and composition. Based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change model estimates for changes in high-frequency meteorological variability over the next 100 years, we expect that terrestrial ecosystems will be affected by changes in variability almost as much as by changes in mean climate. We conclude that terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to high-frequency meteorological variability, and that accurate knowledge of the statistics of this variability is essential for realistic predictions of ecosystem structure and functioning.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-8424 , 1091-6490
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    Language: English
    Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
    Publication Date: 2010
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 209104-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1461794-8
    SSG: 11
    SSG: 12
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ; 2021
    In:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 118, No. 15 ( 2021-04-13)
    In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 118, No. 15 ( 2021-04-13)
    Abstract: Many animals restrict their movements to a characteristic home range. This constrained pattern of space use is thought to result from the foraging benefits of memorizing the locations and quality of heterogeneously distributed resources. However, due to the confounding effects of sensory perception, the role of memory in home-range movement behavior lacks definitive evidence in the wild. Here, we analyze the foraging decisions of a large mammal during a field resource manipulation experiment designed to disentangle the effects of memory and perception. We parametrize a mechanistic model of spatial transitions using experimental data to quantify the cognitive processes underlying animal foraging behavior and to predict how individuals respond to resource heterogeneity in space and time. We demonstrate that roe deer ( Capreolus capreolus ) rely on memory, not perception, to track the spatiotemporal dynamics of resources within their home range. Roe deer foraging decisions were primarily based on recent experience (half-lives of 0.9 and 5.6 d for attribute and spatial memory, respectively), enabling them to adapt to sudden changes in resource availability. The proposed memory-based model was able to both quantify the cognitive processes underlying roe deer behavior and accurately predict how they shifted resource use during the experiment. Our study highlights the fact that animal foraging decisions are based on incomplete information on the locations of available resources, a factor that is critical to developing accurate predictions of animal spatial behavior but is typically not accounted for in analyses of animal movement in the wild.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-8424 , 1091-6490
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    Language: English
    Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
    Publication Date: 2021
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  • 5
    In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 112, No. 52 ( 2015-12-29), p. 15970-15975
    Abstract: Systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis (sJIA) is an often severe, potentially life-threatening childhood inflammatory disease, the pathophysiology of which is poorly understood. To determine whether genetic variation within the MHC locus on chromosome 6 influences sJIA susceptibility, we performed an association study of 982 children with sJIA and 8,010 healthy control subjects from nine countries. Using meta-analysis of directly observed and imputed SNP genotypes and imputed classic HLA types, we identified the MHC locus as a bona fide susceptibility locus with effects on sJIA risk that transcended geographically defined strata. The strongest sJIA-associated SNP, rs151043342 [ P = 2.8 × 10 −17 , odds ratio (OR) 2.6 (2.1, 3.3)], was part of a cluster of 482 sJIA-associated SNPs that spanned a 400-kb region and included the class II HLA region. Conditional analysis controlling for the effect of rs151043342 found that rs12722051 independently influenced sJIA risk [ P = 1.0 × 10 −5 , OR 0.7 (0.6, 0.8)]. Meta-analysis of imputed classic HLA-type associations in six study populations of Western European ancestry revealed that HLA-DRB1*11 and its defining amino acid residue, glutamate 58, were strongly associated with sJIA [ P = 2.7 × 10 −16 , OR 2.3 (1.9, 2.8)], as was the HLA-DRB1*11—HLA-DQA1*05—HLA-DQB1*03 haplotype [6.4 × 10 −17 , OR 2.3 (1.9, 2.9)]. By examining the MHC locus in the largest collection of sJIA patients assembled to date, this study solidifies the relationship between the class II HLA region and sJIA, implicating adaptive immune molecules in the pathogenesis of sJIA.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-8424 , 1091-6490
    RVK:
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    Language: English
    Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
    Publication Date: 2015
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 209104-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1461794-8
    SSG: 11
    SSG: 12
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