In:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, No. 21 ( 2017-05-23), p. 5373-5377
Abstract:
The growth in global methane (CH 4 ) concentration, which had been ongoing since the industrial revolution, stalled around the year 2000 before resuming globally in 2007. We evaluate the role of the hydroxyl radical (OH), the major CH 4 sink, in the recent CH 4 growth. We also examine the influence of systematic uncertainties in OH concentrations on CH 4 emissions inferred from atmospheric observations. We use observations of 1,1,1-trichloroethane (CH 3 CCl 3 ), which is lost primarily through reaction with OH, to estimate OH levels as well as CH 3 CC 3 emissions, which have uncertainty that previously limited the accuracy of OH estimates. We find a 64–70% probability that a decline in OH has contributed to the post-2007 methane rise. Our median solution suggests that CH 4 emissions increased relatively steadily during the late 1990s and early 2000s, after which growth was more modest. This solution obviates the need for a sudden statistically significant change in total CH 4 emissions around the year 2007 to explain the atmospheric observations and can explain some of the decline in the atmospheric 13 CH 4 / 12 CH 4 ratio and the recent growth in C 2 H 6 . Our approach indicates that significant OH-related uncertainties in the CH 4 budget remain, and we find that it is not possible to implicate, with a high degree of confidence, rapid global CH 4 emissions changes as the primary driver of recent trends when our inferred OH trends and these uncertainties are considered.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
0027-8424
,
1091-6490
DOI:
10.1073/pnas.1616426114
Language:
English
Publisher:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Publication Date:
2017
detail.hit.zdb_id:
209104-5
detail.hit.zdb_id:
1461794-8
SSG:
11
SSG:
12
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