In:
Monthly Weather Review, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 151, No. 5 ( 2023-05), p. 1287-1302
Abstract:
The momentum roughness length ( z 0 ) significantly impacts wind predictions in weather and climate models. Nevertheless, the impacts of z 0 parameterizations in different wind regimes and various model configurations on the hurricane size, intensity, and track simulations have not been thoroughly established. To bridge this knowledge gap, a comprehensive analysis of 310 simulations of 10 real hurricanes using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is conducted in comparison with observations. Our results show that the default z 0 parameterizations in WRF perform well for weak (category 1–2) hurricanes; however, they underestimate the intensities of strong (category 3–5) hurricanes. This finding is independent of model resolution or boundary layer schemes. The default values of z 0 in WRF agree with the observational estimates from dropsonde data in weak hurricanes while they are much larger than observations in strong hurricanes regime. Decreasing z 0 close to the values of observational estimates and theoretical hurricane intensity models in high wind regimes (≳45 m s −1 ) led to significant improvements in the intensity forecasts of strong hurricanes. A momentum budget analysis dynamically explained why the reduction of z 0 (decreased surface turbulent stresses) leads to stronger simulated storms.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
0027-0644
,
1520-0493
DOI:
10.1175/MWR-D-22-0191.1
DOI:
10.1175/MWR-D-22-0191.s1
Language:
Unknown
Publisher:
American Meteorological Society
Publication Date:
2023
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2033056-X
detail.hit.zdb_id:
202616-8
SSG:
14
Permalink