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  • General works  (2)
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  • General works  (2)
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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Royal Society ; 2015
    In:  Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences Vol. 373, No. 2055 ( 2015-11-28), p. 20140453-
    In: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, The Royal Society, Vol. 373, No. 2055 ( 2015-11-28), p. 20140453-
    Abstract: An uncertainty report describes the extent of an agent’s uncertainty about some matter. We identify two basic requirements for uncertainty reports, which we call faithfulness and completeness . We then discuss two pitfalls of uncertainty assessment that often result in reports that fail to meet these requirements. The first involves adopting a one-size-fits-all approach to the representation of uncertainty, while the second involves failing to take account of the risk of surprises. In connection with the latter, we respond to the objection that it is impossible to account for the risk of genuine surprises. After outlining some steps that both scientists and the bodies who commission uncertainty assessments can take to help avoid these pitfalls, we explain why striving for faithfulness and completeness is important.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1364-503X , 1471-2962
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: The Royal Society
    Publication Date: 2015
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 208381-4
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1462626-3
    SSG: 11
    SSG: 5,1
    SSG: 5,21
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Royal Society ; 2015
    In:  Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences Vol. 373, No. 2055 ( 2015-11-28), p. 20140463-
    In: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, The Royal Society, Vol. 373, No. 2055 ( 2015-11-28), p. 20140463-
    Abstract: We examine a series of betting strategies on the transient response of greenhouse warming, expressed by changes in 15-year mean global surface temperature from one 15-year period to the next. Over the last century, these bets are increasingly dominated by positive changes (warming), reflecting increasing greenhouse forcing and its rising contribution to temperature changes on this time scale. The greenhouse contribution to 15-year trends is now of a similar magnitude to typical naturally occurring 15-year trends. Negative 15-year changes (decreases) have not occurred since about 1970, and are still possible, but now rely on large, and therefore infrequent, natural variations. Model projections for even intermediate warming scenarios show very low likelihoods of obtaining negative 15-year changes over the coming century. Betting against greenhouse warming, even on these short time scales, is no longer a rational proposition.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1364-503X , 1471-2962
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: The Royal Society
    Publication Date: 2015
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 208381-4
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1462626-3
    SSG: 11
    SSG: 5,1
    SSG: 5,21
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
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