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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2021-07-22
    Description: To counteract global warming, a geoengineering approach that aims at intervening in the Arctic ice-albedo feedback has been proposed. A large number of wind-driven pumps shall spread seawater on the surface in winter to enhance ice growth, allowing more ice to survive the summer melt. We test this idea with a coupled climate model by modifying the surface exchange processes such that the physical effect of the pumps is simulated. Based on experiments with RCP 8.5 scenario forcing, we find that it is possible to keep the late-summer sea ice cover at the current extent for the next ∼60 years. The increased ice extent is accompanied by significant Arctic late-summer cooling by ∼1.3 K on average north of the polar circle (2021–2060). However, this cooling is not conveyed to lower latitudes. Moreover, the Arctic experiences substantial winter warming in regions with active pumps. The global annual-mean near-surface air temperature is reduced by only 0.02 K (2021–2060). Our results cast doubt on the potential of sea ice targeted geoengineering to mitigate climate change.
    Keywords: 551.68 ; sea ice ; geoengineering ; Arctic sea ice decline ; global warming ; ice-albedo feedback ; sea ice modeling
    Language: English
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2021-09-24
    Description: Coupled subseasonal forecast systems with dynamical sea ice have the potential of providing important predictive information in polar regions. Here, we evaluate the ability of operational ensemble prediction systems to predict the location of the sea ice edge in Antarctica. Compared to the Arctic, Antarctica shows on average a 30% lower skill, with only one system remaining more skillful than a climatological benchmark up to ∼30 days ahead. Skill tends to be highest in the west Antarctic sector during the early freezing season. Most of the systems tend to overestimate the sea ice edge extent and fail to capture the onset of the melting season. All the forecast systems exhibit large initial errors. We conclude that subseasonal sea ice predictions could provide marginal support for decision-making only in selected seasons and regions of the Southern Ocean. However, major progress is possible through investments in model development, forecast initialization and calibration.
    Keywords: 551.343 ; sea ice prediction ; sea ice edge ; Antarctica ; Southern Ocean ; S2S time scale
    Language: English
    Type: map
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