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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2020-02-05
    Description: Transient seismicity at active volcanoes poses a significant risk in addition to eruptive activity. This risk is powered by the common belief that volcanic seismicity cannot be forecast, even on a long term. Here we investigate the nature of volcanic seismicity to try to improve our forecasting capacity. To this aim, we consider Ischia volcano (Italy), which suffered similar earthquakes along its uplifted resurgent block. We show that this seismicity marks an acceleration of decades‐long subsidence of the resurgent block, driven by degassing of magma that previously produced the uplift, a process not observed at other volcanoes. Degassing will continue for hundreds to thousands of years, causing protracted seismicity and will likely be accompanied by moderate and damaging earthquakes. The possibility to constrain the future duration of seismicity at Ischia indicates that our capacity to forecast earthquakes might be enhanced when seismic activity results from long‐term magmatic processes, such as degassing.
    Description: Published
    Description: 14421-14429
    Description: 2V. Struttura e sistema di alimentazione dei vulcani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: degassing ; geodetic data ; modelling ; ischia ; 04.08. Volcanology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-07-08
    Description: Volcanic and Seismic source Modeling (VSM) is an open-source Python tool to model ground deformation. VSM allows the user to choose one or more deformation sources of various shapes as a forward model among sphere, spheroid, ellipsoid, rectangular dislocation, and sill. It supports multiple datasets from most satellite and terrestrial geodetic techniques: Interferometric SAR, GNSS, leveling, Electronic Distance Measurements, tiltmeters, and strainmeters. Two sampling algorithms are available: one is a global optimization algorithm based on the Voronoi cells and yields the best-fitting solution and the second follows a probabilistic approach to parameters estimation based on the Bayes theorem and the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. VSM can be executed as Python script, in Jupyter Notebook environments, or by its Graphical User Interface. Its broad applications range from high-level research to teaching, from single studies to near real-time hazard estimates. Potential users range from early-career scientists to experts. It is freely available on GitHub (https://github.com/EliTras/VSM) and is accompanied by step-by-step documentation in Jupyter Notebooks. This study presents the functionalities of VSM and test cases to describe its use and comparisons among possible settings.
    Description: This work was jointly supported by the “Research Lifecycle Management technologies for Earth Science Communities and Copernicus users in EOSC” Reliance project funded by the European Commission’s H2020 2021-2022 (Grant Agreement no. 101017501); Pianeta Dinamico—Working Earth project (2020-2030) funded by the Italian Ministry of University and Research (Decree no. 1118 04/12/2019); and “Linking Surface Observables to sub-Volcanic Plumbing-System: A Multidisciplinary Approach for Eruption Forecasting at Campi Flegrei Caldera (Italy)” LOVE-CF (2020-2023) project funded by INGV (Internal Register no. 1865 17/07/2020).
    Description: Published
    Description: 917222
    Description: 4V. Processi pre-eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: analytical model ; geodetic data ; natural hazards ; open science ; inverse theory ; InSAR ; 04.08. Volcanology ; 04.03. Geodesy ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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