Note: Cover page -- Halftitle page -- Title page -- Copyright page -- Dedication -- Contents -- Preface to the updated edition and acknowledgements -- Figures -- Abbreviations -- Introduction -- PART ONE Predictable Surprises -- CHAPTER 1 The end of the commodity super-cycle -- Commodity cycles are not new -- The long view -- The peak oil delusion -- Wrong again: failing to anticipate the phenomenal rise of China -- Demand in developed countries: the continuing decoupling of GDP from energy demand -- The 'surprise' of shale and fracking -- Much more oil and gas to come -- It's all over: the end of the commodity super-cycle -- CHAPTER 2 Binding carbon constraints -- The conventional approach to climate change: why fossil fuels have prospered since 1990 -- Paris 2015: good politics, bad economics -- False hopes for current renewables -- The oil companies' view of the future -- Inter-fuel switching -- Carbon prices and regulation -- Further ahead: the stranded asset debate -- CHAPTER 3 An electric future -- The future is electric -- New electricity-generation technologies -- New storage technologies -- New transmission and distribution technologies -- New broadband energy- consumption technologies and smart meters -- Electric cars and hybrids -- New materials -- New industrial production technologies: 3D printing, robots and AI -- New technologies and the demand for fossil fuels -- It can't be stopped -- PART TWO The Geopolitical Consequences -- CHAPTER 4 The US THE LUCKY COUNTRY -- The US's oil century -- The OPEC oil shocks of the 1970s and the US's first attempts at energy independence -- The US goes to war, partly for oil -- Win one: the great escape and the coming of shale -- Win two: the carbon constraint - the second US surprise -- Win three: the US and the new technologies -- Out in front -- CHAPTER 5 The Middle East MORE TROUBLE TO COME. , Pre-OPEC: the long struggle for a fair share of the oil revenues -- OPEC: never really a credible cartel -- Saudi's responses -- More Iranian and Iraqi oil to come -- The consequences: Saudi Arabia's declining economic significance -- Iran's future, and that of Iraq and Syria -- CHAPTER 6 Russia BLIGHTED BY THE RESOURCE CURSE -- Russia has always been a resource-based economy -- Regaining political control over the oil and gas industries -- Playing Putin's cards: Ukraine and its consequences -- The pivot to China -- The Russian budget and the long-run consequences of falling prices and new technologies -- Two Russian futures -- CHAPTER 7 China THE END OF THE TRANSITION -- The historical legacy -- China's economic model -- Transforming world energy demand -- China's global suppliers -- China's blue-water fleet -- China's state-owned energy companies -- Weaknesses ahead: why China may not continue to drive energy demand -- The implications for China's geopolitical role -- CHAPTER 8 Europe NOT AS BAD AS IT SEEMS -- European energy policy: the last twenty-five years -- The climate change agenda -- Security of supply, Eastern Europe and the Turkish connections -- Taking stock: Europe faces the new energy world -- All three predictable surprises coming to the rescue -- PART THREE Creative Destruction and the Changing Corporate Landscape -- CHAPTER 9 The gradual end of Big Oil -- The twentieth-century model - and why it worked -- The central role of market power -- The search for new reserves -- An example: BP -- The last hurrah and the coming of shale -- The oil-to-gas substitution: oil companies turn themselves into gas companies -- The total carbon bubble, the stranded assets debate, and divestment campaigns -- The deadly impact of competing technologies -- What if oil companies believe that they are doomed in the long term?. , CHAPTER 10 Energy utilities A BROKEN MODEL -- Why the vertically integrated large utility model worked: the special problems with electricity -- With a monopoly there are lots of possibilities -- Zero marginal costs and fixed-price contracts -- System operators and the grids -- Storage -- Future winners -- What should the incumbents do? -- CHAPTER 11 The new energy markets and the economics of the Internet -- The coming of commodity markets -- The risk problem: sunk costs, switching and spot prices -- Zero marginal costs and zero prices -- Capacity and FiT auctions: the case for simplification -- Knock-on impacts on gas markets -- New markets in traded regulatory asset bases: back to the utility model -- Markets of the future -- Conclusion -- Endnotes -- Bibliography -- Index.