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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society 2006. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 19 (2006): 5100–5121, doi:10.1175/JCLI3902.1.
    Description: Three interrelated climate phenomena are at the center of the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Atlantic research: tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). These phenomena produce a myriad of impacts on society and the environment on seasonal, interannual, and longer time scales through variability manifest as coherent fluctuations in ocean and land temperature, rainfall, and extreme events. Improved understanding of this variability is essential for assessing the likely range of future climate fluctuations and the extent to which they may be predictable, as well as understanding the potential impact of human-induced climate change. CLIVAR is addressing these issues through prioritized and integrated plans for short-term and sustained observations, basin-scale reanalysis, and modeling and theoretical investigations of the coupled Atlantic climate system and its links to remote regions. In this paper, a brief review of the state of understanding of Atlantic climate variability and achievements to date is provided. Considerable discussion is given to future challenges related to building and sustaining observing systems, developing synthesis strategies to support understanding and attribution of observed change, understanding sources of predictability, and developing prediction systems in order to meet the scientific objectives of the CLIVAR Atlantic program.
    Keywords: Atlantic Ocean ; Climate prediction ; Variational studies ; Tropical variability ; North Atlantic Oscillation
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © ATMOSFERA, 2013. This article is posted here by permission of ATMOSFERA for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Atmósfera 26 (2013): 261-281.
    Description: The global distribution, seasonal evolution, and underlying mechanisms for the climatological midsummer drought (MSD) are investigated using a suite of relatively high spatial and temporal resolution station observations and reanalysis data with particular focus on the Pacific coast of Central America and southern Mexico. Although the MSD of Central America stands out in terms of spatial scale and coherence, it is neither unique to the Greater Caribbean Region (GCR) nor necessarily the strongest MSD on Earth based on an objective analysis of several global precipitation data sets. A mechanism for the MSD is proposed that relates the latitudinal dependence of the two climatological precipitation maxima to the biannual crossing of the solar declination (SD), driving two peaks in convective instability and hence rainfall. In addition to this underlying local mechanism, a number of remote processes tend to peak during the apex of the MSD, including the North American monsoon, the Caribbean low-level jet, and the North Atlantic subtropical high, which may also act to suppress rainfall along the Pacific coast of Central America and generate interannual variability in the strength or timing of the MSD. However, our findings challenge the existing paradigm that the MSD owes its existence to a precipitation-suppressing mechanism. Rather, aided by the analysis of higher-temporal resolution precipitation records and considering variations in latitude, we suggest the MSD is essentially the result of one precipitation-enhancing mechanism occurring twice.
    Description: The authors gratefully acknowledge funding from the NOAA Climate Program Office (CPO) Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) Program, under awards NA10OAR0110239 to the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, NA10OAR4310253 to the University of Maryland, and NA10OAR4310252 to Columbia University.
    Keywords: Midsummer drought ; Pacific ; Precipitation
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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