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    NOAA/National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science | Oxford, MD
    In:  John.Jacobs@noaa.gov | http://aquaticcommons.org/id/eprint/14808 | 403 | 2014-02-27 20:52:28 | 14808 | United States National Ocean Service
    Publication Date: 2021-06-25
    Description: Vibrio vulnificus is a gram-negative pathogenic bacterium endemic to coastal waters worldwide, and a leading cause of seafood related mortality. Because of human health concerns, understanding the ecology of the species and potentially predicting its distribution is of great importance. We evaluated and applied a previously published qPCR assay to water samples (n = 235) collected from the main-stem of the Chesapeake Bay (2007 – 2008) by Maryland and Virginia State water quality monitoring programs. Results confirmed strong relationships between the likelihood of Vibrio vulnificus presence and both temperature and salinity that were used to develop a logistic regression model. The habitat model demonstrated a high degree of concordance (93%), and robustness as subsequent bootstrapping (n=1000) did not change model output (P 〉 0.05). We forced this empirical habitat model with temperature and salinity predictions generated by a regional hydrodynamic modeling system to demonstrate its utility in future pathogen forecasting efforts in the Chesapeake Bay.
    Keywords: Ecology ; Fisheries ; Pollution
    Repository Name: AquaDocs
    Type: monograph
    Format: application/pdf
    Format: application/pdf
    Format: 16
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2007. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 112 (2007): C08001, doi:10.1029/2006JC003852.
    Description: Application of biogeochemical models to the study of marine ecosystems is pervasive, yet objective quantification of these models' performance is rare. Here, 12 lower trophic level models of varying complexity are objectively assessed in two distinct regions (equatorial Pacific and Arabian Sea). Each model was run within an identical one-dimensional physical framework. A consistent variational adjoint implementation assimilating chlorophyll-a, nitrate, export, and primary productivity was applied and the same metrics were used to assess model skill. Experiments were performed in which data were assimilated from each site individually and from both sites simultaneously. A cross-validation experiment was also conducted whereby data were assimilated from one site and the resulting optimal parameters were used to generate a simulation for the second site. When a single pelagic regime is considered, the simplest models fit the data as well as those with multiple phytoplankton functional groups. However, those with multiple phytoplankton functional groups produced lower misfits when the models are required to simulate both regimes using identical parameter values. The cross-validation experiments revealed that as long as only a few key biogeochemical parameters were optimized, the models with greater phytoplankton complexity were generally more portable. Furthermore, models with multiple zooplankton compartments did not necessarily outperform models with single zooplankton compartments, even when zooplankton biomass data are assimilated. Finally, even when different models produced similar least squares model-data misfits, they often did so via very different element flow pathways, highlighting the need for more comprehensive data sets that uniquely constrain these pathways.
    Description: This research was supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation through the JGOFS Synthesis and Modeling Project (OCE-0097285) and the National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NAG5-11259 and NNG05GO04G), as well as numerous other grants to the various investigators who participated.
    Keywords: Ecosystem model comparison ; Biogeochemical data assimilation ; Phytoplankton functional groups
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Format: application/pdf
    Format: text/plain
    Format: image/tiff
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