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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 35 (2008): L19708, doi:10.1029/2008GL035400.
    Description: A common problem in climate science is determining whether the pattern of variability in a particular process or variable has changed over time. When the modern observational record is short, this problem can be addressed by comparing its variability to that of an historical proxy record. In doing so, it is important to recognize that the statistical properties of the modern and proxy records are different. Here, a nonparametric test for a change in variability in this situation is described that accounts for this difference. The method is illustrated by testing for a change in ENSO variability using a record of an ENSO index over the period 1871–2007 and oxygen isotope records extracted from corals at Palmyra Island that cover four different periods spanning the past millennium. The results are mixed.
    Description: Partial funding for this work was provided by NSF Grant DEB-0515639.
    Keywords: ENSO ; Proxy record
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 2
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    American Geophysical Union
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2006. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 33 (2006): L22602, doi:10.1029/2006GL027632.
    Description: An influential 1996 paper presented a statistical analysis showing that the prolonged ENSO warm event of the early 1990's was inconsistent with the historical pattern of ENSO variability and therefore concluded that there had been a shift in ENSO behavior possibly connected to global warming. A fundamental problem with this earlier analysis is that the data used to test for a shift in ENSO behavior were not independent of the data used to identify the hypothetical shift. A new analysis is presented that avoids this problem by using more recent data. The results raise a question about the earlier finding.
    Description: This work was supported by NSF grant DEB-0515639.
    Keywords: ENSO ; Time series modeling
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © Society for Conservation Biology, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of John Wiley & Sons for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Conservation Biology 27 (2013): 121-133, doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2012.01934.x.
    Description: United States and Canadian governments have responded to legal requirements to reduce human-induced whale mortality via vessel strikes and entanglement in fishing gear by implementing a suite of regulatory actions. We analyzed the spatial and temporal patterns of mortality of large whales in the Northwest Atlantic (23.5°N to 48.0°N), 1970 through 2009, in the context of management changes. We used a multinomial logistic model fitted by maximum likelihood to detect trends in cause-specific mortalities with time. We compared the number of human-caused mortalities with U.S. federally established levels of potential biological removal (i.e., species-specific sustainable human-caused mortality). From 1970 through 2009, 1762 mortalities (all known) and serious injuries (likely fatal) involved 8 species of large whales. We determined cause of death for 43% of all mortalities; of those, 67% (502) resulted from human interactions. Entanglement in fishing gear was the primary cause of death across all species (n= 323), followed by natural causes (n= 248) and vessel strikes (n= 171). Established sustainable levels of mortality were consistently exceeded in 2 species by up to 650%. Probabilities of entanglement and vessel-strike mortality increased significantly from 1990 through 2009. There was no significant change in the local intensity of all or vessel-strike mortalities before and after 2003, the year after which numerous mitigation efforts were enacted. So far, regulatory efforts have not reduced the lethal effects of human activities to large whales on a population-range basis, although we do not exclude the possibility of success of targeted measures for specific local habitats that were not within the resolution of our analyses. It is unclear how shortfalls in management design or compliance relate to our findings. Analyses such as the one we conducted are crucial in critically evaluating wildlife-management decisions. The results of these analyses can provide managers with direction for modifying regulated measures and can be applied globally to mortality-driven conservation issues.
    Description: We thank S. and H. Simmons for funding for this project.
    Keywords: Entanglement ; Evaluation of management/mitigation efforts ; Human-interaction ; Large whales ; Mortality ; Necropsy ; Vessel-strike ; Ballenas mayores
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Format: application/pdf
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