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  • 1
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    Assessing the carbon balance of circumpolar Arctic tundra using remote sensing and process modeling (2011)
    Ecological Society of America
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2007. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecological Applications 17 (2007): 213–234, doi:10.1890/1051-0761(2007)017[0213:ATCBOC]2.0.CO;2.
    Description: This paper reviews the current status of using remote sensing and process-based modeling approaches to assess the contemporary and future circumpolar carbon balance of Arctic tundra, including the exchange of both carbon dioxide and methane with the atmosphere. Analyses based on remote sensing approaches that use a 20-year data record of satellite data indicate that tundra is greening in the Arctic, suggesting an increase in photosynthetic activity and net primary production. Modeling studies generally simulate a small net carbon sink for the distribution of Arctic tundra, a result that is within the uncertainty range of field-based estimates of net carbon exchange. Applications of process-based approaches for scenarios of future climate change generally indicate net carbon sequestration in Arctic tundra as enhanced vegetation production exceeds simulated increases in decomposition. However, methane emissions are likely to increase dramatically, in response to rising soil temperatures, over the next century. Key uncertainties in the response of Arctic ecosystems to climate change include uncertainties in future fire regimes and uncertainties relating to changes in the soil environment. These include the response of soil decomposition and respiration to warming and deepening of the soil active layer, uncertainties in precipitation and potential soil drying, and distribution of wetlands. While there are numerous uncertainties in the projections of process-based models, they generally indicate that Arctic tundra will be a small sink for carbon over the next century and that methane emissions will increase considerably, which implies that exchange of greenhouse gases between the atmosphere and Arctic tundra ecosystems is likely to contribute to climate warming.
    Description: FATE project under the International Arctic Science Committee and the National Science Foundation through the International Arctic Research Centre in Fairbanks. Nicola Gedney was supported by the U.K. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs under the Climate Prediction Programme PECD/7/12/37.
    Keywords: Arctic carbon cycle ; Biogeochemical cycles ; Carbon balance ; Carbon cycle modeling ; High-latitude remote sensing ; Methane modeling ; Tundra
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 2
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    Net emissions of CH4 and CO2 in Alaska : implications for the region's greenhouse gas budget (2011)
    Ecological Society of America
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2007. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecological Applications 17 (2007): 203–212, doi:10.1890/1051-0761(2007)017[0203:NEOCAC]2.0.CO;2.
    Description: We used a biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), to study the net methane (CH4) fluxes between Alaskan ecosystems and the atmosphere. We estimated that the current net emissions of CH4 (emissions minus consumption) from Alaskan soils are 3 Tg CH4/yr. Wet tundra ecosystems are responsible for 75% of the region's net emissions, while dry tundra and upland boreal forests are responsible for 50% and 45% of total consumption over the region, respectively. In response to climate change over the 21st century, our simulations indicated that CH4 emissions from wet soils would be enhanced more than consumption by dry soils of tundra and boreal forests. As a consequence, we projected that net CH4 emissions will almost double by the end of the century in response to high-latitude warming and associated climate changes. When we placed these CH4 emissions in the context of the projected carbon budget (carbon dioxide [CO2] and CH4) for Alaska at the end of the 21st century, we estimated that Alaska will be a net source of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere of 69 Tg CO2 equivalents/yr, that is, a balance between net methane emissions of 131 Tg CO2 equivalents/yr and carbon sequestration of 17 Tg C/yr (62 Tg CO2 equivalents/yr).
    Description: This work was supported by an NSF biocomplexity grant (ATM-0120468), by NSF funding the International Arctic Research Center (OPP- 0327664), by the NASA Land Cover and Land Use Change Program (NAG5-6257), and by funding from the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change.
    Keywords: Alaska (USA) ; Global warming potential ; Greenhouse gas budget ; Methane consumption and emissions ; Methanogenesis ; Methanotrophy
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 3
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    Importance of recent shifts in soil thermal dynamics on growing season length, productivity, and carbon sequestration in terrestrial high-latitude ecosystems (2006)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © The Authors, 2005. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Blackwell for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Change Biology 12 (2006): 731-750, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01113.x.
    Description: In terrestrial high-latitude regions, observations indicate recent changes in snow cover, permafrost, and soil freeze-thaw transitions due to climate change. These modifications may result in temporal shifts in the growing season and the associated rates of terrestrial productivity. Changes in productivity will influence the ability of these ecosystems to sequester atmospheric CO2. We use the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), which simulates the soil thermal regime, in addition to terrestrial carbon, nitrogen and water dynamics, to explore these issues over the years 1960-2100 in extratropical regions (30°-90°N). Our model simulations show decreases in snow cover and permafrost stability from 1960 to 2100. Decreases in snow cover agree well with NOAA satellite observations collected between the years 1972-2000, with Pearson rank correlation coefficients between 0.58-0.65. Model analyses also indicate a trend towards an earlier thaw date of frozen soils and the onset of the growing season in the spring by approximately 2-4 days from 1988-2000. Between 1988 and 2000, satellite records yield a slightly stronger trend in thaw and the onset of the growing season, averaging between 5-8 days earlier. In both the TEM simulations and satellite records, trends in day of freeze in the autumn are weaker, such that overall increases in growing season length are due primarily to earlier thaw. Although regions with the longest snow cover duration displayed the greatest increase in growing season length, these regions maintained smaller increases in productivity and heterotrophic respiration than those regions with shorter duration of snow cover and less of an increase in growing season length. Concurrent with increases in growing season length, we found a reduction in soil carbon and increases in vegetation carbon, with greatest losses of soil carbon occurring in those areas with more vegetation, but simulations also suggest that this trend could reverse in the future. Our results reveal noteworthy changes in snow, permafrost, growing season length, productivity, and net carbon uptake, indicating that prediction of terrestrial carbon dynamics from one decade to the next will require that large-scale models adequately take into account the corresponding changes in soil thermal regimes.
    Description: Funds were provided by the NSF for the Arctic Biota/Vegetation portion of the ‘Climate of the Arctic: Modeling and Processes’ project (OPP- 0327664), and by the USGS ‘Fate of Carbon in Alaska Landscapes’ project.
    Keywords: Growing season ; Carbon sequestration ; Productivity ; Respiration ; Snow cover ; Permafrost ; Climate change ; Terrestrial ecosystem model
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Preprint
    Format: 819344 bytes
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  • 4
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    Insights and issues with simulating terrestrial DOC loading of Arctic river networks (2014)
    Ecological Society of America
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2013. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecological Applications 23 (2013): 1817-1836, doi:10.1890/11-1050.1.
    Description: Terrestrial carbon dynamics influence the contribution of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to river networks in addition to hydrology. In this study, we use a biogeochemical process model to simulate the lateral transfer of DOC from land to the Arctic Ocean via riverine transport. We estimate that, over the 20th century, the pan-Arctic watershed has contributed, on average, 32 Tg C/yr of DOC to river networks emptying into the Arctic Ocean with most of the DOC coming from the extensive area of boreal deciduous needle-leaved forests and forested wetlands in Eurasian watersheds. We also estimate that the rate of terrestrial DOC loading has been increasing by 0.037 Tg C/yr2 over the 20th century primarily as a result of climate-induced increases in water yield. These increases have been offset by decreases in terrestrial DOC loading caused by wildfires. Other environmental factors (CO2 fertilization, ozone pollution, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, timber harvest, agriculture) are estimated to have relatively small effects on terrestrial DOC loading to Arctic rivers. The effects of the various environmental factors on terrestrial carbon dynamics have both offset and enhanced concurrent effects on hydrology to influence terrestrial DOC loading and may be changing the relative importance of terrestrial carbon dynamics on this carbon flux. Improvements in simulating terrestrial DOC loading to pan-Arctic rivers in the future will require better information on the production and consumption of DOC within the soil profile, the transfer of DOC from land to headwater streams, the spatial distribution of precipitation and its temporal trends, carbon dynamics of larch-dominated ecosystems in eastern Siberia, and the role of industrial organic effluents on carbon budgets of rivers in western Russia.
    Description: This study was supported, in part, by the U.S. National Science Foundation under grants ARC-0531047, ARC-0531082, ARC-0531119, ARC-0554811, and ARC- 0652838; the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under grant R833261; the U.S. Department of Energy under grant DE-FG02-08ER64597; and the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration under grant NNX09A126G.
    Keywords: Climate change ; Permafrost degradation ; River discharge ; Riverine DOC export ; Terrestrial DOC loading ; Trajectory of the Arctic ; Water yield ; Wildfire
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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