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  • Abbreviation; File format; File name; File size; Integrierte Analyse zwischeneiszeitlicher Klimadynamik; INTERDYNAMIK; Parameter; Uniform resource locator/link to model result file; Unit  (1)
  • forced response  (1)
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  • 1
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    PANGAEA
    In:  Supplement to: Fischer, Nils; Jungclaus, Johann H (2011): Evolution of the seasonal temperature cycle in a transient Holocene simulation: orbital forcing and sea-ice. Climate of the Past, 7, 1139-1148, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1139-2011
    Publication Date: 2023-11-22
    Description: Changes in the Earth's orbit lead to changes in the seasonal and meridional distribution of insolation. We quantify the influence of orbitally induced changes on the seasonal temperature cycle in a transient simulation of the last 6000 years – from the mid-Holocene to today – using a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM) including a land surface model (JSBACH). The seasonal temperature cycle responds directly to the insolation changes almost everywhere. In the Northern Hemisphere, its amplitude decreases according to an increase in winter insolation and a decrease in summer insolation. In the Southern Hemisphere, the opposite is true. Over the Arctic Ocean, decreasing summer insolation leads to an increase in sea-ice cover. The insulating effect of sea ice between the ocean and the atmosphere leads to decreasing heat flux and favors more "continental" conditions over the Arctic Ocean in winter, resulting in strongly decreasing temperatures. Consequently, there are two competing effects: the direct response to insolation changes and a sea-ice insulation effect. The sea-ice insulation effect is stronger, and thus an increase in the amplitude of the seasonal temperature cycle over the Arctic Ocean occurs. This increase is strongest over the Barents Shelf and influences the temperature response over northern Europe. We compare our modeled seasonal temperatures over Europe to paleo reconstructions. We find better agreements in winter temperatures than in summer temperatures and better agreements in northern Europe than in southern Europe, since the model does not reproduce the southern European Holocene summer cooling inferred from the paleo reconstructions. The temperature reconstructions for northern Europe support the notion of the influence of the sea-ice insulation effect on the evolution of the seasonal temperature cycle.
    Keywords: Abbreviation; File format; File name; File size; Integrierte Analyse zwischeneiszeitlicher Klimadynamik; INTERDYNAMIK; Parameter; Uniform resource locator/link to model result file; Unit
    Type: Dataset
    Format: text/tab-separated-values, 77 data points
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2021-10-25
    Description: The Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes will be exposed to hydroclimatic risk in next coming decades because the subtropical expansion. However, it is not clear when the anthropogenic signal will emerge from the internal climate variability. For this purpose, we investigate the time of emergence (ToE) of the hemispheric and regional shift of northern subtropical margins in the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble. For several indicators, the ToE of the poleward shift of Northern subtropical margin will not occur by the end of the 21st century, neither at regional nor at hemispheric scale. The exceptions are the Mediterranean/Middle East and, to a lesser degree, Western Pacific, where the ToE would occur earlier. According to our results, given the fundamental role played by internal variability, trends of Northern Hemisphere subtropical poleward shift that have been identified over last decades in reanalyses cannot be considered as robust signals of anthropogenic climate change.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; Northern Hemisphere subtropics ; poleward shift ; MPI-ESM Grand Ensemble ; forced response ; natural variability ; time of emergence
    Language: English
    Type: map
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