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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2021-05-19
    Description: Coral reefs in the Kiunga Marine National Reserve (KMNR) (40o 07’ E, 2o 00’ S) are located in a transition ecotone between the warmer East African coral reef bioregion to the south, and colder waters of the Somali Current to the north. The reefs have been monitored annually from 1998 to the present, documenting a range of ecosystem changes from large and small scale threats. Reefs in the area suffered ˜60% loss of coral cover due to mass bleaching in the 1998 El Niño event, and 25-40% loss of coral species at individual site levels. Recovery of coral community structure has been variable, with some reefs showing strong recovery, while others have declined further. A harmful algal bloom and coral disease in early 2002 further impacted these reefs, causing mass mortalities of fish and coral, and failure of coral recruitment in that year. Fishing impacts to the reserve are high, with a strong south-north decline in fish density due to easier access to the migrant and large fishing communities to the south of the reserve. Responsibility for management of the KMNR falls under multiple institutions, including the Kenya Wildlife Service, Fisheries and Forestry Departments, and the local council. Overlapping mandates, unclear relationships, limited information and understanding, and lack of resources have hampered effective management. The monitoring programme reported here is one aspect of new collaborative appro aches to coral reef and fisheries management, and has focused on improving the information and understanding of the biological and resource systems of the area. The ecosystem trends induced by larger scale threats and the south-north fish resource gradient caused by local use patterns will be analyzed in an attempt to develop sustainable management practices for the reserve.
    Description: Published
    Keywords: Fisheries management ; Overfishing ; Coral reefs ; Ecosystems ; Mass mortality
    Repository Name: AquaDocs
    Type: Book Section , Refereed
    Format: pp.1381-1390
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2021-10-06
    Description: An approach to analyze high-end sea level rise is presented to provide a conceptual framework for high-end estimates as a function of time scale, thereby linking robust sea level science with stakeholder needs. Instead of developing and agreeing on a set of high-end sea level rise numbers or using an expert consultation, our effort is focused on the essential task of providing a generic conceptual framework for such discussions and demonstrating its feasibility to address this problem. In contrast, information about high-end sea level rise projections was derived previously either from a likely range emerging from the highest view of emissions in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment (currently the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario) or from independent ad hoc studies and expert solicitations. Ideally, users need high-end sea level information representing the upper tail of a single joint sea level frequency distribution, which considers all plausible yet unknown emission scenarios as well as involved physical mechanisms and natural variability of sea level, but this is not possible. In the absence of such information we propose a framework that would infer the required information from explicit conditional statements (lines of evidence) in combination with upper (plausible) physical bounds. This approach acknowledges the growing uncertainty in respective estimates with increasing time scale. It also allows consideration of the various levels of risk aversion of the diverse stakeholders who make coastal policy and adaptation decisions, while maintaining scientific rigor.
    Keywords: 551.46 ; 627.4 ; sea level rise ; high‐end estimates
    Language: English
    Type: map
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