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  • Wiley  (3)
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  • Wiley  (3)
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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Investigating observed northwest Australian rainfall trends in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 detection and attribution experiments
    Wiley ; 2019
    In:  International Journal of Climatology Vol. 39, No. 1 ( 2019-01), p. 112-127
    Details
    In: International Journal of Climatology, Wiley, Vol. 39, No. 1 ( 2019-01), p. 112-127
    Abstract: Mean and extreme northwest Australian (NWA) summertime rainfall has increased significantly since 1950. While previous studies have explored a range of possible factors impacting NWA rainfall, the causes of this increase and possible future changes remain uncertain. This study explores the increasing NWA summertime rainfall trends in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models. By using a suite of models that contributed realizations of the historical period with various forcings, we explore the impact to this region of greenhouse gases and aerosol emissions since 1950 on mean rainfall and three extreme rainfall indices. The observed NWA rainfall trend is better captured in models when all forcings are included compared to simulations with only greenhouse gas forcing or with only natural forcing, although the models have a large spread. We hypothesise that anthropogenic aerosols played a major role in the observed rainfall trends, and the associated increase in monsoonal flow, and hence historicalNat and historicalGHG simulations tend not to capture observed rainfall trend. Throughout the 21st century, CMIP5 models simulate a stronger increase in mean summer precipitation and extreme indices of NWA rainfall in representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 simulations than in RCP2.6. The NWA region shows intensified extreme events with fewer heavy precipitation days, but the reliability of these projections in this region should be further tested with estimates of future anthropogenic aerosol changes.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0899-8418 , 1097-0088
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1002/joc.2019.39.issue-1
    DOI: 10.1002/joc.5788
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1491204-1
    SSG: 14
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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    Online Resource
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    A review of past and projected changes in Australia's rainfall
    Wiley ; 2019
    In:  WIREs Climate Change Vol. 10, No. 3 ( 2019-05)
    Details
    In: WIREs Climate Change, Wiley, Vol. 10, No. 3 ( 2019-05)
    Abstract: There has been much attention given to the spatial and temporal characteristics of changes in mean and extreme rainfall over Australia during the past century. As Australia is the second driest continent on Earth, reliable projections around the trends and variability in future rainfall are crucial for policymakers and water resource management. This article comprehensively reviews the current published literature on trends in Australia's rainfall from pre‐instrumental and instrumental records, the climatic drivers of Australia's rainfall variability, attribution of the long‐term trends, extreme rainfall attribution methods with particular reference to a recent case study (2010–2012 east Australia rainfall event) and projected changes of mean and extreme rainfall over Australia during the 21st century. Notable trends in the observational record of rainfall in Australia are a decrease in mean rainfall in southwest and southeast Australia and an increase in northwest Australia since 1950. The general consensus of research into Australia's future rainfall is that mean rainfall will continue to decrease in southwest Australia in a warming world, while changes over northern and eastern Australia remain uncertain. There are still significant knowledge gaps around the causes of observed trends in rainfall both in the mean and extremes, the ability of climate models to accurately represent rainfall in the Australian region and future rainfall projections. These gaps are identified, and avenues for future research directions are proposed. This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends 〉 Modern Climate Change
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1757-7780 , 1757-7799
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1002/wcc.2019.10.issue-3
    DOI: 10.1002/wcc.577
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2532966-2
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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    Online Resource
  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability, teleconnection changes and responses to large volcanic eruptions since AD 1000
    Wiley ; 2019
    In:  International Journal of Climatology Vol. 39, No. 5 ( 2019-04), p. 2711-2724
    Details
    In: International Journal of Climatology, Wiley, Vol. 39, No. 5 ( 2019-04), p. 2711-2724
    Abstract: The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the earth's dominant mode of inter‐annual climate variability. It alternates between warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) states, with global impacts on climate and society. This study provides new ENSO reconstructions based on a large, updated collection of proxy records. We use a novel reconstruction approach that employs running principal components, which allows us to take covariance changes between proxy records into account and thereby identify periods of likely teleconnection changes. Using different implementations of the principal component analysis enables us to identify periods within the last millennium when quantifications of ENSO are most robust. These periods range from 1580 to the end of the 17th century and from 1825 to present. We incorporate an assessment of consistency among our new and existing ENSO reconstructions leading to five short phases of low agreement among the reconstructions between 1700 and 1786. We find a consistent spatial pattern of proxy covariance during these four phases, differing from the structure seen over the instrumental period. This pattern points towards changes in teleconnections in the west Pacific/Australasian region, compared to the present state. Using our new reconstructions, we find a significant response of ENSO towards more La Niña‐like conditions 3–5 years after major volcanic events. We further show that our new reconstructions and existing reconstructions largely agree on the state of ENSO during volcanic eruptions in the years 1695 and 1784, which helps put into perspective the climatic response to these events. During all other large volcanic eruptions of the last 1000 years, there is no reconstruction coherency with regard to the state of ENSO.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0899-8418 , 1097-0088
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1002/joc.2019.39.issue-5
    DOI: 10.1002/joc.5983
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1491204-1
    SSG: 14
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
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