Description: The discrepancy between global loss and local constant species richness has led to debates over data quality, systematic biases in monitoring programmes and the adequacy of species richness to capture changes in biodiversity. We show that, more fundamentally, null expectations of stable richness can be wrong, despite independent yet equal colonization and extinction. We analysed fish and bird time series and found an overall richness increase. This increase reflects a systematic bias towards an earlier detection of colonizations than extinctions. To understand how much this bias influences richness trends, we simulated time series using a neutral model controlling for equilibrium richness and temporal autocorrelation (that is, no trend expected). These simulated time series showed significant changes in richness, highlighting the effect of temporal autocorrelation on the expected baseline for species richness changes. The finite nature of time series, the long persistence of declining populations and the potential strong dispersal limitation probably lead to richness changes when changing conditions promote compositional turnover. Temporal analyses of richness should incorporate this bias by considering appropriate neutral baselines for richness changes. Absence of richness trends over time, as previously reported, can actually reflect a negative deviation from the positive biodiversity trend expected by default.

Description: Effects of temperature changes on phytoplankton communities seem to be highly context-specific, but few studies have analyzed whether this context specificity depends on differences in the abiotic conditions or in species composition between studies. We present an experiment that allows disentangling the contribution of abiotic and biotic differences in shaping the response to two aspects of temperature change: permanent increase of mean temperature versus pulse disturbance in form of a heat wave. We used natural communities from six different sites of a floodplain system as well as artificially mixed communities from laboratory cultures and grew both, artificial and natural communities, in water from the six different floodplain lakes (sites). All 12 contexts (2 communities × 6 sites) were first exposed to three different temperature levels (12, 18, 24 °C, respectively) and afterward to temperature pulses (4 °C increase for 7 h day(-1)). Temperature-dependent changes in biomass and community composition depended on the initial composition of phytoplankton communities. Abiotic conditions had a major effect on biomass of phytoplankton communities exposed to different temperature conditions, however, the effect of biotic and abiotic conditions together was even more pronounced. Additionally, phytoplankton community responses to pulse temperature effects depended on the warming history. By disentangling abiotic and biotic effects, our study shows that temperature-dependent effects on phytoplankton communities depend on both, biotic and abiotic constraints.

Description: Thresholds and tipping points are frequently used concepts to address the risks of global change pressures and their mitigation. It is tempting to also consider them to understand biodiversity change and design measures to ensure biotic integrity. Here, we argue that thresholds and tipping points do not work well in the context of biodiversity change for conceptual, ethical, and empirical reasons. Defining a threshold for biodiversity change (a maximum tolerable degree of turnover or loss) neglects that ecosystem multifunctionality often relies on the complete entangled web of species interactions and invokes the ethical issue of declaring some biodiversity dispensable. Alternatively defining a threshold for pressures on biodiversity might seem more straightforward as it addresses the causes of biodiversity change. However, most biodiversity change appears to be gradual and accumulating over time rather than reflecting a disproportionate change when transgressing a pressure threshold. Moreover, biodiversity change is not in synchrony with environmental change, but massively delayed through inertia inflicted by population dynamics and demography. In consequence, formulating environmental management targets as preventing the transgression of thresholds is less useful in the context of biodiversity change, as such thresholds neither capture how biodiversity responds to anthropogenic pressures nor how it links to ecosystem functioning. Instead, addressing biodiversity change requires reflecting the spatiotemporal complexity of altered local community dynamics and temporal turnover in composition leading to shifts in distributional ranges and species interactions.

Description: One of the most controversially discussed topics in current biodiversity-ecosystem function research is the transfer of results from experimental and theoretical studies to natural ecosystems. At the same time, monitoring data on biodiversity are requested as key indicators for the state of an ecosystem in most environmental evaluation frameworks. We analyse two monitoring data sets comprising information on abundance and biomass of macrozoobenthos communities in the German Wadden Sea in order to evaluate how much information monitoring data on biodiversity provide concerning ecosystem functioning and what implications this information (or the lack thereof) has for future monitoring programmes. Our results show a positive correlation between number of species of macrozoobenthos and its standing stock. Despite differences in overall biomass and individual size in different functional groups, this correlation remained consistent for different feeding guilds and therefore is likely to be independent of certain species traits. Moreover, functional turnover analyses indicate that increasing species richness is needed to maintain biomass levels over increasing periods of time. Whereas our data thus corroborate predictions from theory, we could not determine any causal relationships, because monitoring data commonly include only vague proxies for very few functional parameters, in our case standing biomass as a proxy for production. As to the use of diversity as an indicator for ecosystem functioning, we advise that management decisions are to be based on verified causal relationships and therefore strongly suggest the general incorporation of unambiguous proxies for functional parameters in the measuring campaigns of monitoring programmes.

Description: Biodiversity is expected to change in response to future global warming. However, it is difficult to predict how species will track the ongoing climate change. Here we use the fossil record of planktonic foraminifera to assess how biodiversity responded to climate change with a magnitude comparable to future anthropogenic warming. We compiled time series of planktonic foraminifera assemblages, covering the time from the last ice age across the deglaciation to the current warm period. Planktonic foraminifera assemblages shifted immediately when temperature began to rise at the end of the last ice age and continued to change until approximately 5,000 years ago, even though global temperature remained relatively stable during the last 11,000 years. The biotic response was largest in the mid latitudes and dominated by range expansion, which resulted in the emergence of new assemblages without analogues in the glacial ocean. Our results indicate that the plankton response to global warming was spatially heterogeneous and did not track temperature change uniformly over the past 24,000 years. Climate change led to the establishment of new assemblages and possibly new ecological interactions, which suggests that current anthropogenic warming may lead to new, different plankton community composition.

Description: One of the key challenges in managing eutrophication in coastal marine ecosystems is the harmonized cross-border assessment of phytoplankton. Some general understanding of the consequences of shifting nutrient regimes can be derived from the detailed investigation of the phytoplankton community and its biodiversity. Here, we combined long-term monitoring datasets of German and Dutch coastal stations and amended these with additional information on species biomass. Across the integrated and harmonized dataset, we used multiple biodiversity descriptors to analyse temporal trends in the Wadden Sea phytoplankton. Biodiversity, measured as the number of species (S) and the effective number of species (ENS), has decreased in the Dutch stations over the last 20 years, while biomass has increased, indicating that fewer species are becoming more dominant in the system. However, biodiversity and biomass did not show substantial changes in the German stations. Although there were some differences in trends between countries, shifts in community composition and relative abundance were consistent across stations and time. We emphasise the importance of continuous and harmonized monitoring programmes and multi-metric approaches that can detect changes in the communities that are indicative of changes in the environment.