In:
Energy & Environment, SAGE Publications, Vol. 25, No. 3-4 ( 2014-04), p. 635-659
Abstract:
The technological status of seven key sub-sectors in three sectors (energy, industry and consumption) was analysed using bottom-up modelling. Using 2010 as a baseline, the paper predicts direct CO 2 emission trends, turning points, reduction potentials and costs for the three sectors in two policy scenarios and three technology scenarios for the years 2015, 2020 and 2030. The scenario analysis shows that the industry sector might reach its emissions peak between 2015 and 2020, which leaves more emission reduction potential for the consumption sector. CO 2 emissions in the consumption sector will increase through to 2030 without reaching a turning point. In the Social Low Control Middle (SL-CM) scenario, CO 2 reduction technology potentials of the industry and consumption sectors will reach 0.84 billion tonnes CO 2 -eq by 2020. Within this, production contributes 13% of reductions, transportation 48%, and construction 39%. In the 2030SL-CM-scenario, the CO 2 reduction potentials rise to 1.6 billion tonnes CO 2 -eq, within which production contributes 8%, transportation 44% and construction 48%. In building China's Emission Trading Scheme (ETS), the government should pay more attention to a low carbon consumption policy rather than a traditional CO 2 control policy for the industrial sector.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
0958-305X
,
2048-4070
DOI:
10.1260/0958-305X.25.3-4.635
Language:
English
Publisher:
SAGE Publications
Publication Date:
2014
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2027365-4
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