In:
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science (PLoS), Vol. 16, No. 5 ( 2022-5-4), p. e0010388-
Abstract:
Talaromycosis is a serious regional disease endemic in Southeast Asia. In China, Talaromyces marneffei (T. marneffei) infections is mainly concentrated in the southern region, especially in Guangxi, and cause considerable in-hospital mortality in HIV-infected individuals. Currently, the factors that influence in-hospital death of HIV/AIDS patients with T . marneffei infection are not completely clear. Existing machine learning techniques can be used to develop a predictive model to identify relevant prognostic factors to predict death and appears to be essential to reducing in-hospital mortality. Methods We prospectively enrolled HIV/AIDS patients with talaromycosis in the Fourth People’s Hospital of Nanning, Guangxi, from January 2012 to June 2019. Clinical features were selected and used to train four different machine learning models (logistic regression, XGBoost, KNN, and SVM) to predict the treatment outcome of hospitalized patients, and 30% internal validation was used to evaluate the performance of models. Machine learning model performance was assessed according to a range of learning metrics, including area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) tool was used to explain the model. Results A total of 1927 HIV/AIDS patients with T . marneffei infection were included. The average in-hospital mortality rate was 13.3% (256/1927) from 2012 to 2019. The most common complications/coinfections were pneumonia (68.9%), followed by oral candida (47.5%), and tuberculosis (40.6%). Deceased patients showed higher CD4/CD8 ratios, aspartate aminotransferase (AST) levels, creatinine levels, urea levels, uric acid (UA) levels, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels, total bilirubin levels, creatine kinase levels, white blood-cell counts (WBC) counts, neutrophil counts, procaicltonin levels and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels and lower CD3 + T-cell count, CD8 + T-cell count, and lymphocyte counts, platelet (PLT), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), hemoglobin (Hb) levels than those of surviving patients. The predictive XGBoost model exhibited 0.71 sensitivity, 0.99 specificity, and 0.97 AUC in the training dataset, and our outcome prediction model provided robust discrimination in the testing dataset, showing an AUC of 0.90 with 0.69 sensitivity and 0.96 specificity. The other three models were ruled out due to poor performance. Septic shock and respiratory failure were the most important predictive features, followed by uric acid, urea, platelets, and the AST/ALT ratios. Conclusion The XGBoost machine learning model is a good predictor in the hospitalization outcome of HIV/AIDS patients with T . marneffei infection. The model may have potential application in mortality prediction and high-risk factor identification in the talaromycosis population.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
1935-2735
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010388
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010388.g001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010388.g002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010388.g003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010388.g004
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010388.g005
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010388.g006
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010388.t001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010388.s001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010388.s002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010388.s003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010388.s004
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010388.s005
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010388.r001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010388.r002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010388.r003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010388.r004
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010388.r005
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010388.r006
Language:
English
Publisher:
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Publication Date:
2022
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2429704-5
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