Description: This dataset contains PISM simulation results (http://www.pism-docs.org) of the Antarctic Ice Sheet based on code release v1.0-paleo-ensemble (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3574033). PISM is the open-source Parallel Ice Sheet Model developed mainly at UAF, USA and PIK, Germany. With the help of added python scripts, all figures can be reproduced as in the journal publication: - Albrecht et al., 2020, doi:10.5194/tc-14-599-2020. --- Data: Find PISM results as netCDF data. See 'README.md' for a list of all performed experiment. All forcing input data for the experiments and plots can be downloaded and remapped via https://github.com/pism/pism-ais. Some of the original input data files are freely available, for others please contact the author or the corresponding data publisher. Figure plotting scripts (jupyter notebook based on python, see https://jupyter.org) in 'plot_scripts' access the uploaded PISM results in 'model_data' and save the plots to 'final_figures'. Jupyter notebook can be run in the browser and shared, see https://nbviewer.jupyter.org/url/www.pik-potsdam.de/~albrecht/notebooks/paleo_paper/paleo_paper_final.ipynb. --- Contact: Albrecht, Torsten (albrecht@pik-potdam.de) ; Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany

Description: This dataset contains PISM simulation results of the Antarctic Ice Sheet based on code release v1.0-paleo-ensemble (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3574033). PISM is the open-source Parallel Ice Sheet Model developed mainly at UAF, USA and PIK, Germany. See documentation in https://www.pism.io. These are additional netCDF data from the same ensemble simulations already stored in doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.909728. 1) 1000-year snapshots since 125000 years before present, of ice thickness, bed topography, change in bed topography, floating/grounded mask, surface elevation, basal melt rate and vertically averaged velocity magnitude (SIA+SSA) (16GB) 2) 5000-year snapshots since 125000 years before present, SSA velocity components in x and y direction (8GB)

Description: This dataset contains PISM simulation results of the Antarctic Ice Sheet based on code release v1.0-paleo-ensemble (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3574033). PISM is the open-source Parallel Ice Sheet Model developed mainly at UAF, USA and PIK, Germany. See documentation in http://www.pism-docs.org. With the help of the added jupyter notebook (Python 2.7.3), all figures can be reproduced as published in the article: - Albrecht et al., 2020, doi:10.5194/tc-14-633-2020. --- Data: Find PISM results as netCDF data. See 'README.md' for a list of all performed experiment. All forcing input data for the experiments and plots can be downloaded and remapped via https://github.com/pism/pism-ais. Some of the original input data files are freely available, for others please contact the author or the corresponding data publisher. The jupyter notebook (https://jupyter.org) paleo_paper2_final.ipynb (based on python) in 'plot_scripts' accesses the uploaded PISM results in 'model_data' or 'supplement' and saves the plots as vector and pixel graphics to 'final_figures'. Edit header for changing work paths. Jupyter notebook can be run in the browser and shared, see https://nbviewer.jupyter.org/url/www.pik-potsdam.de/~albrecht/notebooks/paleo_paper/paleo_paper2_final.ipynb. --- Methods: The scoring scheme with respect to modern and paleo data based on Python 2.7.3 can be downloaded from (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3585118). The ensemble analysis calculates misfits to the paleo constraint database AntICEdat (Briggs & Tarasov, 2013) and to RAISED Consortium (2014) as well as to modern ice geometry from Bedmap2 (Fretwell et al., 2013), ice speed (Rignot et al., 2011) an GPS (Whitehouse et al., 2011). The analysis is based on Pollard et al., (2016) and Briggs et al., (2014). --- Contact : Albrecht, Torsten (albrecht@pik-potdam.de) ; Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany

Description: More than half of Earth’s freshwater resources are held by the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which thus represents by far the largest potential source for global sea-level rise under future warming conditions1. Its long-term stability determines the fate of our coastal cities and cultural heritage. Feedbacks between ice, atmosphere, ocean, and the solid Earth give rise to potential nonlinearities in its response to temperature changes. So far, we are lacking a comprehensive stability analysis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet for different amounts of global warming. Here we show that the Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits a multitude of temperature thresholds beyond which ice loss is irreversible. Consistent with palaeodata2 we find, using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model3,4,5, that at global warming levels around 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, West Antarctica is committed to long-term partial collapse owing to the marine ice-sheet instability. Between 6 and 9 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels, the loss of more than 70 per cent of the present-day ice volume is triggered, mainly caused by the surface elevation feedback. At more than 10 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels, Antarctica is committed to become virtually ice-free. The ice sheet’s temperature sensitivity is 1.3 metres of sea-level equivalent per degree of warming up to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, almost doubling to 2.4 metres per degree of warming between 2 and 6 degrees and increasing to about 10 metres per degree of warming between 6 and 9 degrees. Each of these thresholds gives rise to hysteresis behaviour: that is, the currently observed ice-sheet configuration is not regained even if temperatures are reversed to present-day levels. In particular, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet does not regrow to its modern extent until temperatures are at least one degree Celsius lower than pre-industrial levels. Our results show that if the Paris Agreement is not met, Antarctica’s long-term sea-level contribution will dramatically increase and exceed that of all other sources.

Description: The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2,3,4,5,6,7,8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.