Publication Date:
2020-09-07
Description:
Lava flows represent the greatest threat by
far to exposed population and infrastructure
on Mt. Etna, Italy. The increasing exposure
of a larger population, which has almost
tripled in the area around Mt. Etna during
the past 150 years, has resulted from poor
assessment of the volcanic hazard and inappropriate
land use in vulnerable areas. Here
we quantify the lava flow risk on the flanks
of Mt. Etna volcano using a Geographic Information
System (GIS)-based approach that
integrates the hazard with the exposure of elements
at stake. The hazard, which shows the
long-term probability related to lava flow inundation,
is obtained by combining three different
kinds of information: the spatiotemporal
probability of new flank eruptive vents
opening in the future, the event probability
associated with classes of expected eruptions,
and the overlapping of lava flow paths simulated
by the MAGFLOW model. Data including
all exposed elements were gathered from
institutional web portals and high-resolution
satellite imagery and organized in four thematic
layers: population, buildings, service
networks, and land use. The total exposure
is given by a weighted linear combination of
the four thematic layers, where weights are
calculated using the Analytic Hierarchy Process
(AHP). The resulting risk map shows the
likely damage caused by a lava flow eruption
and allows rapid visualization of the areas
subject to the greatest losses if a flank eruption
were to occur on Mt. Etna. The highest
risk is found in the southeastern flank due to
the combination of high hazard and population
density.
Description:
Published
Description:
1615–1625
Description:
6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio
Description:
JCR Journal
Repository Name:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Type:
article
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