Description: Direct observations indicate that the global ocean oxygen inventory is decreasing. Climate models consistently confirm this decline and predict continuing and accelerating ocean deoxygenation. However, current models (1) do not reproduce observed patterns for oxygen changes in the ocean’s thermocline; (2) underestimate the temporal variability of oxygen concentrations and air–sea fluxes inferred from time-series observations; and (3) generally simulate only about half the oceanic oxygen loss inferred from observations. We here review current knowledge about the mechanisms and drivers of oxygen changes and their variation with region and depth over the world’s oceans. Warming is considered a major driver: in part directly, via solubility effects, and in part indirectly, via changes in circulation, mixing and oxygen respiration. While solubility effects have been quantified and found to dominate deoxygenation near the surface, a quantitative understanding of contributions from other mechanisms is still lacking. Current models may underestimate deoxygenation because of unresolved transport processes, unaccounted for variations in respiratory oxygen demand, or missing biogeochemical feedbacks. Dedicated observational programmes are required to better constrain biological and physical processes and their representation in models to improve our understanding and predictions of patterns and intensity of future oxygen change.

Description: Ocean models predict a decline in the dissolved oxygen inventory of the global ocean of one to seven per cent by the year 2100, caused by a combination of a warming-induced decline in oxygen solubility and reduced ventilation of the deep ocean1, 2. It is thought that such a decline in the oceanic oxygen content could affect ocean nutrient cycles and the marine habitat, with potentially detrimental consequences for fisheries and coastal economies3, 4, 5, 6. Regional observational data indicate a continuous decrease in oceanic dissolved oxygen concentrations in most regions of the global ocean1, 7, 8, 9, 10, with an increase reported in a few limited areas, varying by study1, 10. Prior work attempting to resolve variations in dissolved oxygen concentrations at the global scale reported a global oxygen loss of 550 ± 130 teramoles (1012 mol) per decade between 100 and 1,000 metres depth based on a comparison of data from the 1970s and 1990s10. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of the entire ocean oxygen inventory by analysing dissolved oxygen and supporting data for the complete oceanic water column over the past 50 years. We find that the global oceanic oxygen content of 227.4 ± 1.1 petamoles (1015 mol) has decreased by more than two per cent (4.8 ± 2.1 petamoles) since 1960, with large variations in oxygen loss in different ocean basins and at different depths. We suggest that changes in the upper water column are mostly due to a warming-induced decrease in solubility and biological consumption. Changes in the deeper ocean may have their origin in basin-scale multi-decadal variability, oceanic overturning slow-down and a potential increase in biological consumption11, 12.

Description: The surface mixed layer of the world ocean regulates global climate by controlling heat and carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the oceanic interior1,2,3. The mixed layer also shapes marine ecosystems by hosting most of the ocean’s primary production4 and providing the conduit for oxygenation of deep oceanic layers. Despite these important climatic and life-supporting roles, possible changes in the mixed layer during an era of global climate change remain uncertain. Here we use oceanographic observations to show that from 1970 to 2018 the density contrast across the base of the mixed layer increased and that the mixed layer itself became deeper. Using a physically based definition of upper-ocean stability that follows different dynamical regimes across the global ocean, we find that the summertime density contrast increased by 8.9 ± 2.7 per cent per decade (10−6–10−5 per second squared per decade, depending on region), more than six times greater than previous estimates. Whereas prior work has suggested that a thinner mixed layer should accompany a more stratified upper ocean5,6,7, we find instead that the summertime mixed layer deepened by 2.9 ± 0.5 per cent per decade, or several metres per decade (typically 5–10 metres per decade, depending on region). A detailed mechanistic interpretation is challenging, but the concurrent stratification and deepening of the mixed layer are related to an increase in stability associated with surface warming and high-latitude surface freshening8,9, accompanied by a wind-driven intensification of upper-ocean turbulence10,11. Our findings are based on a complex dataset with incomplete coverage of a vast area. Although our results are robust within a wide range of sensitivity analyses, important uncertainties remain, such as those related to sparse coverage in the early years of the 1970–2018 period. Nonetheless, our work calls for reconsideration of the drivers of ongoing shifts in marine primary production, and reveals stark changes in the world’s upper ocean over the past five decades.

Description: The tropical Atlantic upper-ocean circulation experiences multiannual to decadal changes associated with different climate modes and is simultaneously adjusting to climate warming. The most energetic current in the tropical Atlantic is the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC), which flows eastwards along the Equator. On the basis of long-term moored observations, we show that the EUC strengthened by more than 20% from 2008 to 2018. The intensification of the EUC is associated with increasing subsurface oxygen concentrations and a thickening of the upper-ocean oxygenated layer in the equatorial Atlantic. These changes counteract climate-warming-induced deoxygenation in the region. The EUC strengthening is found to be mainly forced by trade wind changes in the western tropical North Atlantic. A 60-yr dataset reveals that the recent oxygen increase in the upper equatorial Atlantic is associated with multidecadal variability. This variability is characterized by low oxygen concentrations in the 1990s and early 2000s, and high oxygen concentrations in the 1960s and 1970s. The observed oxygen variability seems to be linked to a compression and expansion of the habitat of tropical pelagic fish, and must be accounted for when evaluating the possible consequences of deoxygenation for marine ecosystems and fisheries.