In:
Frontiers in Immunology, Frontiers Media SA, Vol. 14 ( 2023-3-1)
Kurzfassung:
The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant has prevailed globally since November 2021. The extremely high transmissibility and occult manifestations were notable, but the severity and mortality associated with the Omicron variant and subvariants cannot be ignored, especially for immunocompromised populations. However, no prognostic model for specially predicting the severity of the Omicron variant infection is available yet. In this study, we aim to develop and validate a prognostic model based on immune variables to early recognize potentially severe cases of Omicron variant-infected patients. Methods This was a single-center prognostic study involving patients with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant infection. Eligible patients were randomly divided into the training and validation cohorts. Variables were collected immediately after admission. Candidate variables were selected by three variable-selecting methods and were used to construct Cox regression as the prognostic model. Discrimination, calibration, and net benefit of the model were evaluated in both training and validation cohorts. Results Six hundred eighty-nine of the involved 2,645 patients were eligible, consisting of 630 non-ICU cases and 59 ICU cases. Six predictors were finally selected to establish the prognostic model: age, neutrophils, lymphocytes, procalcitonin, IL-2, and IL-10. For discrimination, concordance indexes in the training and validation cohorts were 0.822 (95% CI: 0.748-0.896) and 0.853 (95% CI: 0.769-0.942). For calibration, predicted probabilities and observed proportions displayed high agreements. In the 21-day decision curve analysis, the threshold probability ranges with positive net benefit were 0~1 and nearly 0~0.75 in the training and validation cohorts, correspondingly. Conclusions This model had satisfactory high discrimination, calibration, and net benefit. It can be used to early recognize potentially severe cases of Omicron variant-infected patients so that they can be treated timely and rationally to reduce the severity and mortality of Omicron variant infection.
Materialart:
Online-Ressource
ISSN:
1664-3224
DOI:
10.3389/fimmu.2023.1157892
DOI:
10.3389/fimmu.2023.1157892.s001
DOI:
10.3389/fimmu.2023.1157892.s002
DOI:
10.3389/fimmu.2023.1157892.s003
DOI:
10.3389/fimmu.2023.1157892.s004
DOI:
10.3389/fimmu.2023.1157892.s005
Sprache:
Unbekannt
Verlag:
Frontiers Media SA
Publikationsdatum:
2023
ZDB Id:
2606827-8
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