Description: Highlights: • Microplastic abundance was overall low and not related to environmental parameters. • High microplastic loads were found on few occasions after rainfall and snowmelt. • Microplastics were mainly hard fragments of PE and PP in various colours. • Microplastic contamination from the wastewater treatment plant was the lowest. • Stormwater drains are important source of microplastics into the marine environment. Abstract: Microplastics are ubiquitous to most marine environments worldwide, and their management has become one of the major challenges facing stakeholders. Here we monitored monthly, between March 2018 and March 2019, the abundance of microplastics (0.3–18.2 mm) at the sea surface within the Kiel Fjord, southwest Baltic Sea. Microplastics were sampled at eight locations, inside and outside the fjord, near potential source of microplastics, such as the outlets of storm drains or the Kiel-Bülk wastewater treatment plant, the Schwentine River mouth and the entrance of the Kiel Canal. Weather (wind, precipitations) and seawater (salinity, temperature) parameters were compared to the spatiotemporal distribution of the microplastics. We found an overall stable, and low (0.04 particles/m3), microplastic load within the Kiel Fjord compared to other urban areas worldwide with comparable population densities. No relationship was found between the microplastic abundance and the environmental factors, but the few samples that yielded unusually high amount of microplastics were all preceded by rainfall and snow/ice melt. During such events, vast amounts of water, potentially contaminated with microplastics, were released into the fjord via the storm drainage system. The microplastic abundances at the wastewater plant outflow were among the lowest of our survey, likely thanks to an efficient filtering system. The results of this study highlight the importance to repeat microplastic samplings over time and space to determine with confidence baseline microplastic abundance and to detect unusual acute contamination, especially during snow and ice melting. Overall, the microplastic abundance within the Kiel Fjord was low, probably thanks to efficient waste management on land. However, improvements are still needed to filter millimetre-sized particles within the storm drainage system, which is likely a major source of microplastics into the marine environment.

Description: Highlights • Records of hard-bottom communities show regional differences in community dynamics. • Regionally, signs of regime shift were detected. • Shift can be explained by the decline of the foundation species Mytilus sp. • Modelling process revealed three environmental variables explaining the decline. • Regional differences in larval dispersal could explain contrary Mytilus recoveries. Abstract Ecological processes modulate ecosystem functioning and services. Foundation species are those exerting intense control on such processes as both their existence and loss have profound implications on the structure of ecological communities. For the distinction between random fluctuations and directional regime shifts in community composition, long-term records are of strategic need. In this study we present the monitoring of benthic hard-bottom communities over 11 years along seven stations in the SW Baltic Sea. Regional differences were found between the communities of Kiel and Lübeck bights, with the former area displaying signs of regime shift. The decline and near disappearance of the foundational species Mytilus edulis from settlement panels deployed in Kiel Bight correlated with three environmental variables: sea surface temperature, water current speed and chlorophyll a concentration. Thus, low spring temperatures, in some cases reinforced by local maxima of chlorophyll a, correlated with reduced recruitment of Mytilus. Moreover, regional differences of larval dispersal and population connectivity could explain the rapid recovery after disturbance of the mussel populations in Lübeck Bight in contrast to Kiel Bight. Our findings underscore the relevance of long-term monitoring programmes to detect the interactive impacts of global climatic and regional environmental drivers.

Description: Human-induced climate change such as ocean warming and acidification, threatens marine ecosystems and associated fisheries. In the Western Baltic cod stock socio-ecological links are particularly important, with many relying on cod for their livelihoods. A series of recent experiments revealed that cod populations are negatively affected by climate change, but an ecological-economic assessment of the combined effects, and advice on optimal adaptive management are still missing. For Western Baltic cod, the increase in larval mortality due to ocean acidification has experimentally been quantified. Time-series analysis allows calculating the temperature effect on recruitment. Here, we include both processes in a stock-recruitment relationship, which is part of an ecological-economic optimization model. The goal was to quantify the effects of climate change on the triple bottom line (ecological, economic, social) of the Western Baltic cod fishery. Ocean warming has an overall negative effect on cod recruitment in the Baltic. Optimal management would react by lowering fishing mortality with increasing temperature, to create a buffer against climate change impacts. The negative effects cannot be fully compensated, but even at 3 °C warming above the 2014 level, a reduced but viable fishery would be possible. However, when accounting for combined effects of ocean warming and acidification, even optimal fisheries management cannot adapt to changes beyond a warming of +1.5° above the current level. Our results highlight the need for multi-factorial climate change research, in order to provide the best available, most realistic, and precautionary advice for conservation of exploited species as well as their connected socio-economic systems.

Description: Highlights: • Model output indicates high connectivity between the eastern Baltic cod nursery grounds. • Variability of spatial juvenile distribution patterns affected by flow dynamics. • Trend of simulated occupied juvenile cod habitat have been declining over the last decades. • Condition of juveniles suggests density-dependence due to hypoxia-related decrease in suitable habitat. • Baltic cod recruitment indicator: habitat availability for juvenile settlement as a factor for recruitment. Abstract: In this study the drift of eastern Baltic cod larvae and juveniles spawned within the historical eastern Baltic cod spawning grounds was investigated by detailed drift model simulations for the years 1971–2010, to examine the spatio-temporal dynamics of environmental suitability in the nursery areas of juvenile cod settlement. The results of the long-term model scenario runs, where juvenile cod were treated as simulated passively drifting particles, enabled us to find strong indications for long-term variations of settlement and potentially the reproduction success of the historically important eastern Baltic cod nursery grounds. Only low proportions of juveniles hatched in the Arkona Basin and in the Gotland Basin were able to settle in their respective spawning ground. Ocean currents were either unfavorable for the juveniles to reach suitable habitats or transported the juveniles to nursery grounds of neighboring subdivisions. Juveniles which hatched in the Bornholm Basin were most widely dispersed and showed the highest settlement probability, while the second highest settlement probability and horizontal dispersal was observed for juveniles originating from the Gdansk Deep. In a long-term perspective, wind-driven transport of larvae/juveniles positively affected the settlement success predominately in the Bornholm Basin and in the Bay of Gdansk. The Bornholm Basin has the potential to contribute on average 54% and the Bay of Gdansk 11% to the production of juveniles in the Baltic Sea. Furthermore, transport of juveniles surviving to the age of settlement with origin in the Bornholm Basin contributed on average 13 and 11% to the total settlement in the Arkona Basin and in the Gdansk Deep, respectively. The time-series of the simulated occupied juvenile cod habitat in the Bornholm Basin and in the Gdansk Deep showed a similar declining trend as the Fulton’s K condition factor of demersal 1-group cod, which may confirm the importance of oxygen-dependent habitat availability and its effect on density dependence as a process relevant for recruitment success.

Description: Highlights: • Recruitment indicator: egg survival probability vs. “reproductive volume concept”. • Traditional sampling methodology unable to resolve spatial egg distributions. • Predominance of self-sustaining stock components and low connectivity. • Egg buoyancy and topographic features: limitation of cod egg transport. • Sedimentation as a new mortality source of eastern Baltic cod eggs. Abstract: In the highly variable environment of the Baltic Sea two genetically distinct cod stocks exist, one west of the island of Bornholm, which is referred to as the western stock, and one to the east of Bornholm, the eastern stock. A hydrodynamic model combined with a Lagrangian particle tracking technique was utilised to provide spatially and temporally resolved long-term information on environmentally-related (i) spawning habitat size, (ii) egg/yolk-sac larval survival, (iii) separation of causes of mortality, and (iv) connectivity between spawning areas of eastern Baltic cod. Simulations were performed to quantify processes generating heterogeneity in spatial distribution of cod eggs and yolk sac larvae up to the first-feeding stage. The spatial extent of cod eggs represented as virtual drifters is primarily determined by oxygen and salinity conditions at spawning, which define the habitat requirement to which cod’s physiology is suited for egg development. The highest habitat suitability occurred in the Bornholm Basin, followed by the Gdansk Deep, while relatively low habitat suitability was obtained for the Arkona and the Gotland Basin. During drift egg and yolk sac larval survival is to a large extent affected by sedimentation. Eggs initially released in the western spawning grounds (Arkona and Bornholm Basin) were more affected by sedimentation than those released in the eastern spawning grounds (Gdansk Deep and Gotland Basin). Highest relative survival of eastern Baltic cod eggs occurred in the Bornholm Basin, with a pronounced decrease towards the Gdansk Deep and the Gotland Basin. Relatively low survival rates in the Gdansk Deep and in the Gotland Basin were attributable to oxygen-dependent mortality. Low oxygen content had almost no impact on survival in the Arkona Basin. For all spawning areas temperature dependent mortality was only evident after severe winters. Egg buoyancy in relation to topographic features like bottom sills and strong bottom slopes could appear as a barrier for the transport of Baltic cod eggs and yolk sac larvae and could potentially limit the connectivity of Baltic cod early life stages between the different basins in the western and eastern Baltic Sea. The possibility of an eastward directed transport up to the first-feeding larval stage exists only for eggs and yolk sac larvae at high buoyancy levels, suggesting that dispersal of early life stages between these spawning areas is limited.

Description: Highlights: • Modeling of oxygen conditions of the Baltic Sea for the period 1970–2010 by a coupled hydrodynamic-oxygen consumption model • Determination of the evolution of hypoxic and anoxic areas for the period 1970–2010 for the total Baltic Sea • Determination of the frequencies of the occurrences of areas of oxygen deficiencies for the period 1970–2010 • Calculation of the Baltic Cod reproduction volumes in the Bornholm Basin for the period 1970–2010 Abstract: The Baltic Sea deep waters suffer from extended areas of hypoxia and anoxia. Their intra- and inter-annual variability is mainly determined by saline inflows which transport oxygenated water to deeper layers. During the last decades, oxygen conditions in the Baltic Sea have generally worsened and thus, the extent of hypoxic as well as anoxic bottom water has increased considerably. Climate change may further increase hypoxia due to changes in the atmospheric forcing conditions resulting in less deep water renewal Baltic inflows, decreased oxygen solubility and increased respiration rates. Feedback from climate change can amplify effects from eutrophication. A decline in oxygen conditions has generally a negative impact on marine life in the Baltic Sea. Thus, a detailed description of the evolution of oxygenated, hypoxic and anoxic areas is particularly required when studying oxygen-related processes such as habitat utilization of spawning fish, survival rates of their eggs as well as settlement probability of juveniles. One of today's major challenges is still the modeling of deep water dissolved oxygen, especially for the Baltic Sea with its seasonal and quasi-permanent extended areas of oxygen deficiency. The detailed spatial and temporal evolution of the oxygen concentrations in the entire Baltic Sea have been simulated for the period 1970–2010 by utilizing a hydrodynamic Baltic Sea model coupled to a simple pelagic and benthic oxygen consumption model. Model results are in very good agreement with CTD/O2-profiles taken in different areas of the Baltic Sea. The model proved to be a useful tool to describe the detailed evolution of oxygenated, hypoxic and anoxic areas in the entire Baltic Sea. Model results are further applied to determine frequencies of the occurrence of areas of oxygen deficiency and cod reproduction volumes.

Description: Retention or dispersion of larvae from the spawning ground has been identified as one of the key processes influencing recruitment success in fish stocks. An exercise combining 3-D hydrodynamic model simulations and field data on spatial distributions of juvenile Baltic cod was utilised to investigate the potential drift of larvae from the centre of main spawning effort in the Bornholm Basin, Baltic Sea. In the simulations cod larvae were represented as Lagrangian drifters. Habitats in which larvae and juvenile cod potentially dwell and where juveniles settle were identified to ascertain the importance of predicting transport. The transport of Baltic cod larvae was investigated by detailed drift model simulations for the years 1986 to 1999. The results yielded a clear dependency on wind-induced drift of larval cod, which is mainly controlled by the local atmospheric conditions over the Baltic Sea. Seasonally averaged distributions of drifters were compared with actual distributions of 0-group cod, as determined from bottom and pelagic trawl surveys conducted in autumn of the years 1993 to 2000 in and around the Bornholm Basin. The results suggest that juveniles caught in different areas can be assigned to different times of the spawning season. Because of seasonal differences in the circulation patterns, the southern coastal environment is on average most important for early and late spawners, whereas larvae hatching in mid-summer were on average transported towards the north or to a higher degree remained in the spawning ground.

Description: A three-dimensional hydrodynamic model has been used to analyse temporally and spatially resolved circulation patterns in the Baltic Sea with special emphasis on drifting particles representing larval fish. The main purpose of this study was (i) to investigate potential drift patterns of larval fish, (ii) to identify its intra- and inter-annual variability for time periods based on the timing of spawning and (iii) to analyse its seasonal and spatial variability in dependence of the atmospheric forcing conditions. For the time period 1979–1998 temporally and spatially resolved simulated flow fields were used to describe the potential drift from the centre of main reproductive effort of Baltic cod (Gadus morhua). The results of the model runs demonstrate a general change in circulation pattern from retention during a first decade (1979–1988) to dispersion in the following decade (1989–1998). This increase in dispersion was related to an increase in the variability of the local wind forcing conditions over the Baltic. The more frequent occurrence of dispersion in spring of the recent decade was accompanied by a strong decay in biomass of one of the main larval fish feeding component in the central basin, the calanoid copepod Pseudocalanus elongatus. Larger dispersion of this prey organism may have affected the spatial overlap and thus the contact rates between predator and prey. Hence, this may have resulted in a food limitation for early life stages of Baltic cod and potentially contributed to the pronounced shift in cod peak spawning time from spring to late summer. Early life stages of cod originating from late spawning fish, benefited from a stronger dispersion in late summer and autumn, into shallow coastal areas with higher calanoid abundance.

Description: Upwelling is a typical phenomenon of the Baltic Sea. Because the Baltic Sea is a semi- enclosed basin, winds from favorable directions blowing predominately parallel to the coast cause upwelling leading to vertical displacement of the water body and mixing. During the thermal stratified period, upwelling can lead to a strong sea-surface temperature drop of more than 10 °C changing drastically the thermal balance and stability conditions at the sea-surface. Upwelling can play a key role in replenishing the euphotic zone with the nutritional components necessary for biological productivity when the surface layer is depleted of nutrients. Consequently, it has been found out that in such areas where upwelling lifts phosphorus-rich deep water to the surface, the N/P ratio becomes low which favors the blooming of nitrogen-fixing blue-green algae. The rapid temperature decrease during such events was recognized and documented a long time ago when temperature measurements became available. Thus, the study of the upwelling process has a long tradition. However, although the importance of upwelling has generally been accepted for the Baltic Sea, no general review of upwelling exists. The objective of this paper is a comprehensive review of the upwelling process, its dynamics and reflections to ecosystem processes in the Baltic Sea using all relevant literature which will help to close the gaps of present knowledge and some recommendations for future work are outlined accordingly.

Description: Review is given about the main results of the oceanographic component of the BALTEX research programme (one of the six continental scale experiments within GEWEX-WCRP to study water and energy cycles in the regional climate system) and related programmes/projects over the last 10 years. Working closely together with two other components – regional meteorology and hydrology of the Baltic Sea drainage basin – oceanographic research has considerably improved the understanding of and ability to model the Baltic Sea marine system. In the Baltic Sea physics seven different broad topics are identified where knowledge has significantly improved. These are reviewed together with a discussion of gaps in knowledge. The focus is on the water and energy cycles of the Baltic Sea, but various aspects of forcing and validation data and modelling are also discussed. The major advances achieved through BALTEX and related programmes are: • Meteorological, hydrological, ocean and ice data are now available for the research community. • Progress in understanding of the strong impact of large-scale atmospheric circulation on Baltic Sea circulation, water mass exchange, sea ice evolution, and changes in the ocean conditions of the Baltic Sea. • Progress in understanding of the importance of strait flows in the exchange of water into and within the Baltic Sea. • Progress in understanding of intra-basin processes. • Ocean models introduced into Baltic Sea water and energy studies. • Development of turbulence models and 3D ocean circulation models for application to the Baltic Sea. • Improved Baltic Sea ice modelling and increased understanding of the need for coupled atmosphere–ice–ocean-land models.