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  • 1
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    A first appraisal of the seismogenic and tsunamigenic potential of the largest fault systems in the westernmost Mediterranean (2022)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-20
    Description: Highlights • We identify the largest active fault systems of the Alboran Basin. • Characterization of faults is key for accurate tsunamigenic potential estimations. • Alboran largest fault systems may generate Mw 〉 7 earthquakes. • These earthquakes have the potential to generate significant tsunami waves approaching the coast. Abstract The westernmost Mediterranean hosts part of the plate boundary between the European and African tectonic plates. Based on the scattered instrumental seismicity, this boundary has been traditionally interpreted as a wide zone of diffuse deformation. However, recent seismic images and seafloor mapping studies support that most of the plate convergence may be accommodated in a few tectonic structures, rather than in a broad region. Historical earthquakes with magnitudes Mw 〉 6 and historical tsunamis support that the low-to-moderate instrumental seismicity might also have led to underestimation of the seismogenic and tsunamigenic potential of the area. We evaluate the largest active faults of the westernmost Mediterranean: the reverse Alboran Ridge, and the strike-slip Carboneras, Yusuf and Al-Idrissi fault systems. For the first time, we use a dense grid of modern seismic data to characterize the entire dimensions of the main fault systems, accurately describe the geometry of these structures and estimate their seismic source parameters. Tsunami scenarios have been tested based on 3D-surfaces and seismic source parameters, using both uniform and heterogeneous slip distributions. The comparison of our results with previous studies, based on limited information on the fault geometry and kinematics, indicates that accurate fault geometries and heterogeneous slip distributions are needed to properly assess the seismic and tsunamigenic potential in this area. Based on fault scaling relations, the four fault systems have a large seismogenic potential, being able to generate earthquakes with Mw 〉 7. The reverse Alboran Ridge Fault System has the largest tsunamigenic potential, being able to generate a tsunami wave amplitude greater than 3 m in front of the coasts of Southern Spain and Northern Africa.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 2
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    The Making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) (2021)
    Frontiers
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-03-08
    Description: The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a three-phase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models’ weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (POI) distributed at an average spacing of ∼20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAM Region, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP≈2,475 years), the POIs with MIH 〉5 m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH 〉3 m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH 〉1 m. NEAMTHM18 results and documentation are available through the TSUMAPS-NEAM project website (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/), featuring an interactive web mapper. Although the NEAMTHM18 cannot substitute in-depth analyses at local scales, it represents the first action to start local and more detailed hazard and risk assessments and contributes to designing evacuation maps for tsunami early warning.
    Description: The NEAMTHM18 was prepared in the framework of the European Project TSUMAPS-NEAM (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/) funded by the mechanism of the European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations with grant no. ECHO/SUB/2015/718568/PREV26 (https://ec.europa.eu/echo/funding-evaluations/financing-civil-protection-europe/selected-projects/probabilistic-tsunami-hazard_en). The work by INGV authors also benefitted from funding by the INGV-DPC Agreement 2012-2021 (Annex B2).
    Description: Published
    Description: 616594
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: 1SR TERREMOTI - Sorveglianza Sismica e Allerta Tsunami
    Description: 2SR TERREMOTI - Gestione delle emergenze sismiche e da maremoto
    Description: 3SR TERREMOTI - Attività dei Centri
    Description: 5SR TERREMOTI - Convenzioni derivanti dall'Accordo Quadro decennale INGV-DPC
    Description: 3IT. Calcolo scientifico
    Description: 4IT. Banche dati
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment ; earthquake-generated tsunami ; hazard uncertainty analysis ; ensemble modeling ; maximum inundation height ; NEAM ; 05.08. Risk ; 03.02. Hydrology ; 04.06. Seismology ; 04.07. Tectonophysics ; 05.01. Computational geophysics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
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    Benchmarking the Optimal Time Alignment of Tsunami Waveforms in Nonlinear Joint Inversions for the Mw 8.8 2010 Maule (Chile) Earthquake (2021)
    Frontiers
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-02-02
    Description: Finite-fault models for the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile earthquake indicate bilateral rupture with large-slip patches located north and south of the epicenter. Previous studies also show that this event features significant slip in the shallow part of the megathrust, which is revealed through correction of the forward tsunami modeling scheme used in tsunami inversions. The presence of shallow slip is consistent with the coseismic seafloor deformation measured off the Maule region adjacent to the trench and confirms that tsunami observations are particularly important for constraining far-offshore slip. Here, we benchmark the method of Optimal Time Alignment (OTA) of the tsunami waveforms in the joint inversion of tsunami (DART and tide-gauges) and geodetic (GPS, InSAR, landleveling) observations for this event. We test the application of OTA to the tsunami Green’s functions used in a previous inversion. Through a suite of synthetic tests we show that if the bias in the forward model is comprised only of delays in the tsunami signals, the OTA can correct them precisely, independently of the sensors (DART or coastal tidegauges) and, to the first-order, of the bathymetric model used. The same suite of experiments is repeated for the real case of the 2010 Maule earthquake where, despite the results of the synthetic tests, DARTs are shown to outperform tidegauges. This gives an indication of the relative weights to be assigned when jointly inverting the two types of data. Moreover, we show that using OTA is preferable to subjectively correcting possible time mismatch of the tsunami waveforms. The results for the source model of the Maule earthquake show that using just the first-order modeling correction introduced by OTA confirms the bilateral rupture pattern around the epicenter, and, most importantly, shifts the inferred northern patch of slip to a shallower position consistent with the slip models obtained by applying more complex physics-based corrections to the tsunami waveforms. This is confirmed by a slip model refined by inverting geodetic and tsunami data complemented with a denser distribution of GPS data nearby the source area. The models obtained with the OTA method are finally benchmarked against the observed seafloor deformation off the Maule region. We find that all of the models using the OTA well predict this offshore coseismic deformation, thus overall, this benchmarking of the OTA method can be considered successful.
    Description: Published
    Description: 585429
    Description: 3T. Sorgente sismica
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
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    Testing Tsunami Inundation Maps for Evacuation Planning in Italy (2021)
    Frontiers
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-07
    Description: Inundation maps are a fundamental tool for coastal risk management and in particular for designing evacuation maps and evacuation planning. These in turn are a necessary component of the tsunami warning systems’ last-mile. In Italy inundation maps are informed by a probabilistic tsunami hazard model. Based on a given level of acceptable risk, Italian authorities in charge for this task recommended to consider, as design hazard intensity, the average return period of 2500 years and the 84th percentile of the hazard model uncertainty. An available, regional-scale tsunami hazard model was used that covers the entire Italian coastline. Safety factors based on analysis of run-up variability and an empirical coastal dissipation law on a digital terrain model (DTM) were applied to convert the regional hazard into the design run-up and the corresponding evacuation maps with a GIS-based approach. Since the regional hazard cannot fully capture the local-scale variability, this simplified and conservative approach is considered a viable and feasible practice to inform local coastal risk management in the absence of high-resolution hazard models. The present work is a first attempt to quantify the uncertainty stemming from such procedure. We compare the GIS-based inundation maps informed by a regional model with those obtained from a local high-resolution hazard model. Two locations on the coast of eastern Sicily were considered, and the local hazard was addressed with the same seismic model as the regional one, but using a higher-resolution DTM and massive numerical inundation calculations with the GPU-based Tsunami-HySEA nonlinear shallow water code. This study shows that the GIS-based inundation maps used for planning deal conservatively with potential hazard underestimation at the local scale, stemming from typically unmodeled uncertainties in the numerical source and tsunami evolution models. The GIS-based maps used for planning fall within the estimated “error-bar” due to such uncertainties. The analysis also demonstrates the need to develop local assessments to serve very specific risk mitigation actions to reduce the uncertainty. More in general, the presented case-studies highlight the importance to explore ways of dealing with uncertainty hidden within the high-resolution numerical inundation models, e.g., related to the crude parameterization of the bottom friction, or the inaccuracy of the DTM.
    Description: Published
    Description: 628061
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: tsunamis ; inundation maps ; early warning ; probabilistic hazard ; numerical modeling ; Italy
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
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    Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis: High Performance Computing for Massive Scale Inundation Simulations (2021)
    Frontiers
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-01-14
    Description: Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) quantifies the probability of exceeding a specified inundation intensity at a given location within a given time interval. PTHA provides scientific guidance for tsunami risk analysis and risk management, including coastal planning and early warning. Explicit computation of site-specific PTHA, with an adequate discretization of source scenarios combined with high-resolution numerical inundation modelling, has been out of reach with existing models and computing capabilities, with tens to hundreds of thousands of moderately intensive numerical simulations being required for exhaustive uncertainty quantification. In recent years, more efficient GPU-based High-Performance Computing (HPC) facilities, together with efficient GPU-optimized shallow water type models for simulating tsunami inundation, have now made local long-term hazard assessment feasible. A workflow has been developed with three main stages: 1) Site-specific source selection and discretization, 2) Efficient numerical inundation simulation for each scenario using the GPU-based Tsunami-HySEA numerical tsunami propagation and inundation model using a system of nested topo-bathymetric grids, and 3) Hazard aggregation. We apply this site-specific PTHA workflow here to Catania, Sicily, for tsunamigenic earthquake sources in the Mediterranean. We illustrate the workflows of the PTHA as implemented for High-Performance Computing applications, including preliminary simulations carried out on intermediate scale GPU clusters. We show how the local hazard analysis conducted here produces a more fine-grained assessment than is possible with a regional assessment. However, the new local PTHA indicates somewhat lower probabilities of exceedance for higher maximum inundation heights than the available regional PTHA. The local hazard analysis takes into account small-scale tsunami inundation features and non-linearity which the regional-scale assessment does not incorporate. However, the deterministic inundation simulations neglect some uncertainties stemming from the simplified source treatment and tsunami modelling that are embedded in the regional stochastic approach to inundation height estimation. Further research is needed to quantify the uncertainty associated with numerical inundation modelling and to properly propagate it onto the hazard results, to fully exploit the potential of site-specific hazard assessment based on massive simulations.
    Description: Published
    Description: 591549
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 6
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    A first appraisal of the seismogenic and tsunamigenic potential of the largest fault systems in the westernmost Mediterranean (2022)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-02-22
    Description: The westernmost Mediterranean hosts part of the plate boundary between the European and African tectonic plates. Based on the scattered instrumental seismicity, this boundary has been traditionally interpreted as a wide zone of diffuse deformation. However, recent seismic images and seafloor mapping studies support that most of the plate convergence may be accommodated in a few tectonic structures, rather than in a broad region. Historical earthquakes with magnitudes Mw 〉 6 and historical tsunamis support that the low-to-moderate instrumental seismicity might also have led to underestimation of the seismogenic and tsunamigenic potential of the area. We evaluate the largest active faults of the westernmost Mediterranean: the reverse Alboran Ridge, and the strike-slip Carboneras, Yusuf and Al-Idrissi fault systems. For the first time, we use a dense grid of modern seismic data to characterize the entire dimensions of the main fault systems, accurately describe the geometry of these structures and estimate their seismic source parameters. Tsunami scenarios have been tested based on 3D-surfaces and seismic source parameters, using both uniform and heterogeneous slip distributions. The comparison of our results with previous studies, based on limited information on the fault geometry and kinematics, indicates that accurate fault geometries and heterogeneous slip distributions are needed to properly assess the seismic and tsunamigenic potential in this area. Based on fault scaling relations, the four fault systems have a large seismogenic potential, being able to generate earthquakes with Mw 〉 7. The reverse Alboran Ridge Fault System has the largest tsunamigenic potential, being able to generate a tsunami wave amplitude greater than 3 m in front of the coasts of Southern Spain and Northern Africa.
    Description: Published
    Description: 106749
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Western Mediterranean ; Seismogenic potential ; Tsunamigenic potential ; Numerical modelling ; Active faults ; Active seismic data ; 04.04. Geology ; 04.07. Tectonophysics ; 04.06. Seismology ; 05.08. Risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 7
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    Tsunami hazard, warning, and risk reduction in Italy and the Mediterranean Sea: state of the art, gaps, and future solutions (2021)
    TÜBİTAK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-12-23
    Description: Historical catalogues show evidence for about 300 tsunamis in European coastal waters since 1600 BC, and tsunami hazard models like the NEAMTHM18 provide the probability of future inundation from earthquake-induced tsunamis. A recent wake-up call came from the 2020 MW7.0 Samos-İzmir earthquake and the following moderate, damaging tsunami. Five accredited Tsunami Service Providers (TSPs) run by IPMA (Portugal), CENALT (France), INGV (Italy), NOA (Greece), and KOERI (Turkey), and several national centers monitor the seismicity and provide tsunami alerts in the framework of the UNESCO Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas (NEAMTWS). In this paper, we focus on the state of the art of earthquake-induced tsunami risk reduction and coastal planning in Italy from the perspective of the Centro Allerta Tsunami (CAT), the INGV NTWC (National Tsunami Warning Center) and TSP. We will emphasize some limitations to draw future directions for better preparation and towards the full implementation of the tsunami warning “last-mile”.
    Description: Published
    Description: 882-897
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: 8T. Sismologia in tempo reale e Early Warning Sismico e da Tsunami
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 8
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    Parallel density scanned adaptive Kriging to improve local tsunami hazard assessment for coastal infrastructures (2023)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-03-30
    Description: Seismic Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (SPTHA) is a framework for calculating the probability that seismically induced tsunami waves exceed a specific threshold height, over a given time span and a specific region (i.e. regional SPTHA) or site (i.e. local SPTHA). To account for the uncertainty of the possible sources, SPTHA must integrate the results of a large number of computationally demanding tsunami simulations In this work, we innovatively use Parallel density scanned Adaptive Kriging (P-ds AK) to overcome the computational efficiency challenge of local SPTHA within a framework that consists in modeling/retrieving the full spectrum of possible earthquake triggering events at the regional level, filtering sources not relevant for the target, adopting a clustering procedure to select “representative scenarios” for inundation modeling, and, finally, adopt P-ds AK to identify the clusters centroids that most influence the hazard intensity (i.e., wave height) in the areas of interest. This approach is applied in the area of the oil refinery located in Milazzo (Italy). The application shows a consistent reduction of the number of high-resolution tsunami simulations required for the evaluation of the hazard curves over a set of inland Point of Interest (PoIs), either concentrated in one specific area or distributed along the coast.
    Description: Published
    Description: 108441
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 9
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    The Sensitivity of Tsunami Impact to Earthquake Source Parameters and Manning Friction in High-Resolution Inundation Simulations (2023)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-03-20
    Description: In seismically active regions with variable dominant focal mechanisms, there is considerable tsunami inundation height uncertainty. Basic earthquake source parameters such as dip, strike, and rake affect significantly the tsunamigenic potential and the tsunami directivity. Tsunami inundation is also sensitive to other properties such as bottom friction. Despite their importance, sensitivity to these basic parameters is surprisingly sparsely studied in literature. We perform suites of systematic parameter searches to investigate the sensitivity of inundation at the towns of Catania and Siracusa on Sicily to changes both in the earthquake source parameters and the Manning friction. The inundation is modelled using the Tsunami-HySEA shallow water code on a system of nested topo-bathymetric grids with a finest spatial resolution of 10 m. This GPU-based model, with significant HPC resources, allows us to perform large numbers of high- resolution tsunami simulations. We analyze the variability of different hydrodynamic parameters due to large earthquakes with uniform slip at different locations, focal depth, and different source parameters. We consider sources both near the coastline, in which significant near-shore co-seismic deformation occurs, and offshore, where near- shore co-seismic deformation is negligible. For distant offshore earthquake sources, we see systematic and intuitive changes in the inundation with changes in strike, dip, rake, and depth. For near-shore sources, the dependency is far more complicated and co- determined by both the source mechanisms and the coastal morphology. The sensitivity studies provide directions on how to resolve the source discretization to optimize the number of sources in Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis, and they demonstrate a need for a far finer discretization of local sources than for more distant sources. For a small number of earthquake sources, we study systematically the inundation as a function of the Manning coefficient. The sensitivity of the inundation to this parameter varies greatly for different earthquake sources and topo-bathymetry at the coastline of interest. The friction greatly affects the velocities and momentum flux and to a lesser but still significant extent the inundation distance from the coastline. An understanding of all these dependencies is needed to better quantify the hazard when source complexity increases.
    Description: Published
    Description: 757618
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: 8T. Sismologia in tempo reale e Early Warning Sismico e da Tsunami
    Description: 1SR TERREMOTI - Sorveglianza Sismica e Allerta Tsunami
    Description: 3IT. Calcolo scientifico
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: tsunami ; inundation ; HPC ; earthquakes ; numerical simulations
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 10
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    Enabling Dynamic and Intelligent Workflows for HPC, Data Analytics, and AI Convergence (2023)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-03-20
    Description: The evolution of High-Performance Computing (HPC) platforms enables the design and execution of progressively larger and more complex workflow applications in these systems. The complexity comes not only from the number of elements that compose the workflows but also from the type of computations they perform. While traditional HPC workflows target simulations and modelling of physical phenomena, current needs require in addition data analytics (DA) and artificial intelligence (AI) tasks. However, the development of these workflows is hampered by the lack of proper programming models and environments that support the integration of HPC, DA, and AI, as well as the lack of tools to easily deploy and execute the workflows in HPC systems. To progress in this direction, this paper presents use cases where complex workflows are required and investigates the main issues to be addressed for the HPC/DA/AI convergence. Based on this study, the paper identifies the challenges of a new workflow platform to manage complex workflows. Finally, it proposes a development approach for such a workflow platform addressing these challenges in two directions: first, by defining a software stack that provides the functionalities to manage these complex workflows; and second, by proposing the HPC Workflow as a Service (HPCWaaS) paradigm, which leverages the software stack to facilitate the reusability of complex workflows in federated HPC infrastructures. Proposals presented in this work are subject to study and development as part of the EuroHPC eFlows4HPC project.
    Description: Published
    Description: 414-429
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: 8T. Sismologia in tempo reale e Early Warning Sismico e da Tsunami
    Description: 4V. Processi pre-eruttivi
    Description: 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio
    Description: 3IT. Calcolo scientifico
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: High performance computing ; Distributed computing ; Parallel programming ; HPC-DA-AI convergence ; Workflow development ; Workflow orchestration
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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