Description: Ecological studies based on time-series often investigate community changes centered on species abundance or biomass but rarely expose the consequential functional aspects underlying such changes. Functional diversity measures have proven to be more accurate predictors for ecosystem functioning than traditional taxonomic approaches and hence gained much attention. There are only limited studies available that analyse the functional implications behind decadal changes of entire communities. We studied zoobenthic communities of two habitats, sheltered and exposed, of a coastal system subject to contrasting changes in community composition over the past four decades. Besides eutrophication and climate-related impacts, the system has been invaded by a non-native polycheate Marenzelleria spp., adding altered functional properties to the communities. The functional dispersion (FDis) metric was used as a measure for comparing the functional diversity of the contrasting habitats, with special focus on the role of Marenzelleria for the entire communities. We highlight changes in the functional identity of the communities, expressed as community-weighted means of trait expression (CWM), using multivariate techniques, and investigate the relationship between taxonomic and functional changes. Despite contrasting community developments in the two habitats, with characteristics traditionally suggesting different environmental quality, we found that the FDis in both habitats remained similar and increased with the introduction of Marenzelleria. Although showing maintained functional diversity across time and space, the functional identity (CWM) of communities changed irrespective of taxonomical differences. Examples include inter alia alterations in palatability proxies, feeding position and sediment transportation types, indicating changed functionality of zoobenthos in coastal systems. We show, when focussing on qualitative functional changes of communities, it is important to evaluate the underlying functional identity, and not only rely on measures of the diversity of functions per se, as the quality indication of expressed functional traits can be concealed when using multi-functionality approaches.

Description: Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge of the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in palaeo-, historical, and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments still remain valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, for example, for Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level-driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Baltic Inflows, and phytoplankton species distribution, and new scenario simulations with improved models, for example, for glaciers, lake ice, and marine food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before because more models were included in the ensembles, especially for the Baltic Sea. With the help of coupled models, feedbacks between several components of the Earth system have been studied, and multiple driver studies were performed, e.g. projections of the food web that include fisheries, eutrophication, and climate change. New datasets and projections have led to a revised understanding of changes in some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has become evident that natural variability, in particular for the ocean on multidecadal timescales, is greater than previously estimated, challenging our ability to detect observed and projected changes in climate. In this context, the first palaeoclimate simulations regionalised for the Baltic Sea region are instructive. Hence, estimated uncertainties for the projections of many variables increased. In addition to the well-known influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, it was found that also other low-frequency modes of internal variability, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, have profound effects on the climate of the Baltic Sea region. Challenges were also identified, such as the systematic discrepancy between future cloudiness trends in global and regional models and the difficulty of confidently attributing large observed changes in marine ecosystems to climate change. Finally, we compare our results with other coastal sea assessments, such as the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA), and find that the effects of climate change on the Baltic Sea differ from those on the North Sea, since Baltic Sea oceanography and ecosystems are very different from other coastal seas such as the North Sea. While the North Sea dynamics are dominated by tides, the Baltic Sea is characterised by brackish water, a perennial vertical stratification in the southern subbasins, and a seasonal sea ice cover in the northern subbasins.