Description: A major link between climate and humans in Northern Africa, and the Sahel in particular, is land use and associated land cover change, mainly where subsistence farming prevails. Here we assess possible feedbacks between the type of land use and harvest intensity and climate by analyzing a series of idealized GCM experiments using the MPI-ESM. The base line for these experiments is a simulation forced by the RCP8.5 scenario which includes strong greenhouse gas emissions and anthropogenic land cover changes. The anthropogenic land cover changes in the RCP8.5 scenario include a mixture of pasture and agriculture. In subsequent simulations, we replace the entire area affected by anthropogenic land cover change in the region between the Sahara in the North and the Guinean Coast in the South (4 to 20° N) by either pasture or agriculture, respectively. In a second setup we vary the amount of harvest in case of agriculture. The RCP8.5 base line simulation reveals strong changes in mean agriculture and monsoon rainfall. In comparison with these changes, any variation of the type of land use in the study area leads to very small, mostly insignificantly small, additional differences in mean temperature and annual precipitation change in this region. Within the uncertainty of the representation of land use in current ESMs, our study suggests marginal feedback between land use changes and climate changes triggered by strong greenhouse gas emissions. Hence as a good approximation, climate change can be considered as external driver in models of land-use – conflict dynamics when seasonal or mean values are used as external driver.

Description: Changes in fire activity over the last 8000 years are simulated with a global fire model driven by changes in climate and vegetation cover. The changes were separated into those caused through variations in fuel availability, fuel moisture or wind speed, which react differently to changes in climate. Disentangling these controlling factors helps in understanding the overall climate control on fire activity over the Holocene. Globally the burned area is simulated to increase by 2.5% between 8000 and 200 cal yr BP, with larger regional changes compensating nearly evening out on a global scale. Despite the absence of anthropogenic fire ignitions, the simulated trends in fire activity agree reasonably well with continental-scale reconstructions from charcoal records, with the exception of Europe. For some regions the change in fire activity is predominantly controlled through changes in fuel availability (Australia monsoon, Central America tropics/subtropics). For other regions changes in fuel moisture are more important for the overall trend in fire activity (North America, Sub-Saharan Africa, Europe, Asia monsoon). In Sub-Saharan Africa, for example, changes in fuel moisture alone lead to an increase in fire activity between 8000 and 200 cal yr BP, while changes in fuel availability lead to a decrease. Overall, the fuel moisture control is dominating the simulated fire activity for Sub-Saharan Africa. The simulations clearly demonstrate that both changes in fuel availability and changes in fuel moisture are important drivers for the fire activity over the Holocene. Fuel availability and fuel moisture do, however, have different climate controls. As such, observed changes in fire activity cannot be related to single climate parameters such as precipitation or temperature alone. Fire models, as applied in this study, in combination with observational records can help in understanding the climate control on fire activity, which is essential to project future fire activity.

Description: An earth system model of intermediate complexity (CLIMate and BiosphERe – CLIMBER-2) and a land surface model (JSBACH), which dynamically represent vegetation, are used to simulate natural fire dynamics through the last 8000 yr. Output variables of the fire model (burned area and fire carbon emissions) are used to compare model results with sediment-based charcoal reconstructions. Several approaches for processing model output are also tested. Charcoal data are reported in Z-scores with a base period of 8000–200 BP in order to exclude the strong anthropogenic forcing of fire during the last two centuries. The model–data comparison reveals a robust correspondence in fire activity for most regions considered, while for a few regions, such as Europe, simulated and observed fire histories show different trends. The difference between modelled and observed fire activity may be due to the absence of anthropogenic forcing (e.g. human ignitions and suppression) in the model simulations, and also due to limitations inherent to modelling fire dynamics. The use of spatial averaging (or Z-score processing) of model output did not change the directions of the trends. However, Z-score-transformed model output resulted in higher rank correlations with the charcoal Z-scores in most regions. Therefore, while both metrics are useful, processing model output as Z-scores is preferable to areal averaging when comparing model results to transformed charcoal records.

Description: Upscaling the properties and the effects of small-scale surface heterogeneities to larger scales is a challenging issue in land surface modeling. We developed a novel approach to upscale local methane emissions in a boreal peatland from the micro-topographic scale to the landscape-scale. We based this new parameterization on the analysis of the water table pattern generated by the Hummock–Hollow model, a micro-topography resolving model for peatland hydrology. We introduce this parameterization of methane hotspots in a global model-like version of the Hummock–Hollow model, that underestimates methane emissions. We tested the robustness of the parameterization by simulating methane emissions for the next century forcing the model with three different RCP scenarios. The Hotspot parameterization, despite being calibrated for the 1976–2005 climatology, mimics the output of the micro-topography resolving model for all the simulated scenarios. The new approach bridges the scale gap of methane emissions between this version of the model and the configuration explicitly resolving micro-topography.

Description: The location, timing, spatial extent, and frequency of wildfires are changing rapidly in many parts of the world, producing substantial impacts on ecosystems, people, and potentially climate. Paleofire records based on charcoal accumulation in sediments enable modern changes in biomass burning to be considered in their long-term context. Paleofire records also provide insights into the causes and impacts of past wildfires and emissions when analyzed in conjunction with other paleoenvironmental data and with fire models. Here we present new 1000 year and 22 000 year trends and gridded biomass burning reconstructions based on the Global Charcoal Database version 3, which includes 736 charcoal records (57 more than in version 2). The new gridded reconstructions reveal the spatial patterns underlying the temporal trends in the data, allowing insights into likely controls on biomass burning at regional to global scales. In the most recent few decades, biomass burning has sharply increased in both hemispheres, but especially in the north, where charcoal fluxes are now higher than at any other time during the past 22 000 {years}. We also discuss methodological issues relevant to data-model comparisons, and identify areas for future research. Spatially gridded versions of the global dataset from GCDv3 are provided to facilitate comparison with and validation of global fire simulations.

Description: A new Earth system model, the Flexible Ocean and Climate Infrastructure (FOCI), is introduced. A first version of FOCI consists of a global high-top atmosphere (ECHAM6.3) and an ocean model (NEMO3.6) as well as sea ice (LIM2) and land surface model components (JSBACH), which are coupled through the OASIS3-MCT software package. FOCI includes a number of optional modules which can be activated depending on the scientific question of interest. In the atmosphere, interactive stratospheric chemistry can be used (ECHAM6-HAMMOZ) to study, for example, the effects of the ozone hole on the climate system. In the ocean, a biogeochemistry model (MOPS) is available to study the global carbon cycle. A unique feature of FOCI is the ability to explicitly resolve mesoscale ocean eddies in specific regions. This is realized in the ocean through nesting; first examples for the Agulhas Current and the Gulf Stream systems are described here. FOCI therefore bridges the gap between coarse-resolution climate models and global high-resolution weather prediction and ocean-only models. It allows to study the evolution of the climate system on regional and seasonal to (multi-) decadal scales. The development of FOCI resulted from a combination of the long-standing expertise in ocean and climate modeling in several research units and divisions at GEOMAR. FOCI will thus be used to complement and interpret long-term observations in the Atlantic, enhance the process understanding of the role of mesoscale oceanic eddies for large-scale oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns, study feedback mechanisms with stratospheric processes, estimate future ocean acidification, improve the simulation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation changes and their influence on climate, ocean chemistry and biology. In this paper we present both the scientific vision for the development of FOCI as well as some technical details. This includes a first validation of the different model components using several configurations of FOCI. Results show that the model in its basic configuration runs stably under pre-industrial control as well as under historical forcing, and produces a mean climate and variability which compares well with observations, reanalysis products and other climate models. The nested configurations reduce some long-standing biases in climate models and are an important step forward to include the atmospheric response in multi-decadal eddy-rich configurations.