Description: This study assesses the response on ice dynamics of Petermann Glacier, a major outlet glacier in northern Greenland, to the 2012 and a possible future calving event. So far Petermann Glacier has been believed to be dynamically stable as another large calving event in 2010 had no significant impact on flow velocity or grounding line retreat. By analyzing a time series of remotely sensed surface velocities, we find an average acceleration of 10% between winter 2011/2012 and winter 2016/2017. This increase in surface velocity is not linear but can be separated into two parts, starting in 2012 and 2016 respectively. By conducting modelling experiments, we show that the first speed-up can be directly connected to the 2012 calving event, while the second speed-up is not captured. However, on recent remote sensing imagery newly developing fractures are clearly visible ~12,km upstream from the terminus, propagating from the eastern fjord wall to the center of the ice tongue, indicating a possible future calving event. By including these fracture zones as a new terminus position in the modelling domain we are able to reproduce the second speed-up, suggesting that surface velocities remain on the 2016/2017 level after the anticipated calving event. This indicates that, from a dynamical point of view, the terminus region has already detached from the main ice tongue.

Description: Calving is a major mechanism of ice discharge of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, and a change in calving front position affects the entire stress regime of marine terminating glaciers. The representation of calving front dynamics in a 2-D or 3-D ice sheet model remains non-trivial. Here, we present the theoretical and technical framework for a level-set method, an implicit boundary tracking scheme, which we implement into the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). This scheme allows us to study the dynamic response of a drainage basin to user-defined calving rates. We apply the method to Jakobshavn Isbræ, a major marine terminating outlet glacier of the West Greenland Ice Sheet. The model robustly reproduces the high sensitivity of the glacier to calving, and we find that enhanced calving triggers significant acceleration of the ice stream. Upstream acceleration is sustained through a combination of mechanisms. However, both lateral stress and ice influx stabilize the ice stream. This study provides new insights into the ongoing changes occurring at Jakobshavn Isbræ and emphasizes that the incorporation of moving boundaries and dynamic lateral effects, not captured in flow-line models, is key for realistic model projections of sea level rise on centennial timescales.

Description: We present a consistent data set for the ice thickness, the bedrock topography and the ice surface topography of the King George Island ice cap (Arctowski Icefield and the adjacent central part). The data set is composed of groundbased and airborne Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) and differential GPS (DGPS) measurements, obtained during several field campaigns. The data set incorporates groundbased measurements in the safely accessible inner parts and airborne measurements in the heavily crevassed coastal areas of the ice cap. In particular, the inclusion of airborne GPR measurements with the 30MHz BGR-P30-System developed at the Institute of Geophysics (University of Münster) completes the picture of the ice geometry substantially. The compiled digital elevation model of the bedrock shows a rough, highly variable topography with pronounced valleys, ridges, and troughs. The mean ice thickness is approx. 238m, with a maximum value of approx. 400m in the surveyed area. Noticeable are bounded areas in the bedrock topography below sea level where marine based ice exists.

Description: The Antarctic Peninsula has been identified as a region of rapid on-going climate change with impacts on the cryosphere. The knowledge of glacial changes and freshwater budgets resulting from intensified glacier melt is an important boundary condition for many biological and integrated earth system science approaches. We provide a case study on glacier and mass balance changes for the ice cap of King George Island. The area loss between 2000 and 2008 amounted to about 20 km**2 (about 1.6% of the island area) and compares to glacier retreat rates observed in previous years. Measured net accumulation rates for two years (2007 and 2008) show a strong interannual variability with maximum net accumulation rates of 4950 mm w.e./a and 3184 mm w.e./a, respectively. These net accumulation rates are at least 4 times higher than reported mean values (1926-95) from an ice core. An elevation dependent precipitation rate of 343 mm w.e./a (2007) and 432 mm w.e./a (2008) per 100 m elevation increase was observed. Despite these rather high net accumulation rates on the main ice cap, consistent surface lowering was observed at elevations below 270 m above ellipsoid over an 11-year period. These DGPS records reveal a linear dependence of surface lowering with altitude with a maximum annual surface lowering rate of 1.44 m/a at 40 m and -0.20 m/a at 270 m above ellipsoid. These results fit well to observations by other authors and surface lowering rates derived from the ICESat laser altimeter. Assuming that climate conditions of the past 11 years continue, the small ice cap of Bellingshausen Dome will disappear in about 285 years.

Description: King George Island is located at the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula, which is influenced by maritime climate conditions. The observed mean annual air temperature at sea level is -2.4°C. Thus, the ice cap is regarded as sensitive to changing climatic conditions. Ground-penetrating radar surveys indicate a partly temperate ice cap with an extended water layer at the firn/ice transition of the up to 700 m high ice cap. Measured firn temperatures are close to 0°C at the higher elevations, and they differ considerably from the measured mean annual air temperature. The aim of this paper is to present ice-flow dynamics by means of observations and simulations of the flow velocities. During several field campaigns from 1997/98 to 2008/09, ice surface velocities were derived with repeated differential GPS measurements. Ice velocities vary from 0.7 m/a at the dome to 112.1 m/a along steep slopes. For the western part of the ice cap a three-dimensional diagnostic full-Stokes model was applied to calculate ice flow. Parameters of the numerical model were identified with respect to measured ice surface velocities. The simulations indicate cold ice at higher elevations, while temperate ice at lower elevations is consistent with the observations.

Description: Sea-level rise associated with changing climate is expected to pose a major challenge for societies. Based on the efforts of COP21 to limit global warming to 2.0°C or even 1.5°C by the end of the 21st century (Paris Agreement), we simulate the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) to sea-level change under the low emission Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 scenario. The Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) with higher-order approximation is used and initialized with a hybrid approach of spin-up and data assimilation. For three general circulation models (GCMs: HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC5) the projections are conducted up to 2300 with forcing fields for surface mass balance (SMB) and ice surface temperature (Ts) computed by the surface energy balance model of intermediate complexity (SEMIC). The projected sea-level rise ranges between 21–38mm by 2100 and 36–85mm by 2300. According to the three GCMs used, global warming will exceed 1.5°C early in the 21st century. The RCP2.6 peak and decline scenario is therefore manually adjusted in another set of experiments to suppress the 1.5°C overshooting effect. These scenarios show a sea-level contribution that is on average about 38% and 31% less by 2100 and 2300, respectively. For some experiments, the rate of mass loss in the 23rd century does not exclude a stable ice sheet in the future. This is due to a spatially integrated SMB that remains positive and reaches values similar to the present day in the latter half of the simulation period. Although the mean SMB is reduced in the warmer climate, a future steady-state ice sheet with lower surface elevation and hence volume might be possible. Our results indicate that uncertainties in the projections stem from the underlying GCM climate data used to calculate the surface mass balance. However, the RCP2.6 scenario will lead to significant changes in the GrIS, including elevation changes of up to 100m. The sea-level contribution estimated in this study may serve as a lower bound for the RCP2.6 scenario, as the currently observed sea-level rise is not reached in any of the experiments; this is attributed to processes (e.g. ocean forcing) not yet represented by the model, but proven to play a major role in GrIS mass loss.

Description: We present benchmark experiments to test the implementation of enthalpy and the corresponding boundary conditions in numerical ice sheet models. Since we impose several assumptions on the experiment design, analytical solutions can be formulated for the proposed numerical experiments. The first experiment tests the functionality of the boundary condition scheme and the basal melt rate calculation during transient simulations. The second experiment addresses the steady-state enthalpy profile and the resulting position of the cold–temperate transition surface (CTS). For both experiments we assume ice flow in a parallel-sided slab decoupled from the thermal regime. We compare simulation results achieved by three different ice flow-models with these analytical solutions. The models agree well to the analytical solutions, if the change in conductivity between cold and temperate ice is properly considered in the model. In particular, the enthalpy gradient on the cold side of the CTS goes to zero in the limit of vanishing temperate-ice conductivity, as required from the physical jump conditions at the CTS.

Description: Modern digital scientific workflows - often implying Big Data challenges - require data infrastructures and innovative data science methods across disciplines and technologies. Diverse activities within and outside HGF deal with these challenges, on all levels. The series of Data Science Symposia fosters knowledge exchange and collaboration in the Earth and Environment research community. We invited contributions to the overarching topics of data management, data science and data infrastructures. The series of Data Science Symposia is a joint initiative by the three Helmholtz Centers HZG, AWI and GEOMAR Organization: Hela Mehrtens and Daniela Henkel (GEOMAR)

Description: Over the past 3 decades, inversions for ice sheet basal drag have become commonplace in glaciological modeling. Such inversions require regularization to prevent over-fitting and ensure that the structure they recover is a robust inference from the observations, confidence which is required if they are to be used to draw conclusions about processes and properties of the ice base. While L-curve analysis can be used to select the optimal regularization level, the treatment of L-curve analysis in glaciological inverse modeling has been highly variable. Building on the history of glaciological inverse modeling, we demonstrate general best practices for regularizing glaciological inverse problems, using a domain in the Filchner-Ronne catchment of Antarctica as our test bed. We show a step-by-step approach to cost function normalization and L-curve analysis. We explore the spatial and spectral characteristics of the solution as a function of regularization, and we test the sensitivity of L-curve analysis and regularization to model resolution, effective pressure, sliding nonlinearity, and the flow equation. We find that the optimal regularization level converges towards a finite non-zero limit in the continuous problem, associated with a best knowable basal drag field. Nonlinear sliding laws outperform linear sliding in our analysis, with both a lower total variance and a more sharply cornered L-curve. By contrast, geometry-based approximations for effective pressure degrade inversion performance when added to a sliding law, but an actual hydrology model may marginally improve performance in some cases. Our results with 3D inversions suggest that the additional model complexity may not be justified by the 2D nature of the surface velocity data. We conclude with recommendations for best practices in future glaciological inversions.