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  • Cambridge University Press (CUP)  (3)
  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Achieving the 17 Sustainable Development Goals within 9 planetary boundaries
    Cambridge University Press (CUP) ; 2019
    In:  Global Sustainability Vol. 2 ( 2019)
    Details
    In: Global Sustainability, Cambridge University Press (CUP), Vol. 2 ( 2019)
    Abstract: Near-term gains on socio-economic goals under the 2030 Agenda could reduce the Earth system ‘safety margin’ represented by the nine planetary boundaries. We built an intentionally simple global systems simulation model, Earth3 , that combines a socio-economic model of human activity with a biophysical model of the global environment. Earth3 fills a key gap in the family of integrated models, by being capable of simulating the complex dynamic implementation challenge of the full 2030 Agenda. Earth3 generates consistent, transparent pathways from 1980 to 2050 for seven world regions. With these pathways, we assess the extent to which the 14 socio-economic SDGs are achieved and quantify the associated pressure on planetary boundaries to calculate endogenously the extent to which the three environmental SDGs are achieved. Sensitivity analysis indicates uncertainty of the order of ± 20% in the number of SDGs achieved and in the biophysical safety margin. The Business-as-Usual scenario indicates that the social and environmental SDGs cannot be achieved together, nor within the planetary boundaries. Combined with an index tracking effects on people's wellbeing and with simple formulations that keep assumptions transparent, Earth3 can help identify and communicate policies that could improve the global sustainability situation.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2059-4798
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1017/sus.2019.22
    Language: English
    Publisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2929769-2
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  • 2
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    Potential feedbacks between loss of biosphere integrity and climate change
    Cambridge University Press (CUP) ; 2019
    In:  Global Sustainability Vol. 2 ( 2019)
    Details
    In: Global Sustainability, Cambridge University Press (CUP), Vol. 2 ( 2019)
    Abstract: Individual responses of terrestrial and marine species to future climate change will affect the capacity of the land and ocean to store carbon. How system-level changes in the integrity of the biosphere interact with climate change is more uncertain. Here, we explore the consequences of different hypotheses on the interactions between the climate–carbon system and the integrity of the terrestrial and marine biospheres. We investigate mechanisms including impairment of terrestrial ecosystem functioning due to lagged ecosystem responses, permafrost thaw, terrestrial biodiversity loss and impacts of changes in marine biodiversity on the marine biological pump. To investigate climate–biosphere interactions involving complex concepts such as biosphere integrity, we designed and implemented conceptual representations of these climate–biosphere interactions in a stylized climate–carbon model. We find that all four classes of interactions amplify climate change, potentially contributing up to an additional 0.4°C warming across all representative concentration pathway scenarios by the year 2100 and potentially turning the terrestrial biosphere into a net carbon source, although uncertainties are large. The results of this preliminary quantitative study call for more research on – and better integrated governance of – the interactions between climate change and biosphere integrity, the two core ‘planetary boundaries’.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2059-4798
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1017/sus.2019.18
    Language: English
    Publisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2929769-2
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Human well-being in the Anthropocene: limits to growth
    Cambridge University Press (CUP) ; 2021
    In:  Global Sustainability Vol. 4 ( 2021)
    Details
    In: Global Sustainability, Cambridge University Press (CUP), Vol. 4 ( 2021)
    Abstract: Transformation of the world towards sustainability in line with the 2030 Agenda requires progress on multiple dimensions of human well-being. We track development of relevant indicators for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 1–7 against gross domestic product (GDP) per person in seven world regions and the world as a whole. Across the regions, we find uniform development patterns where SDGs 1–7 – and therefore main human needs – are achieved at around US$15,000 measured in 2011 US$ purchasing power parity (PPP). Technical summary How does GDP per person relate to the achievement of well-being as targeted by the 2030 Agenda? The 2030 Agenda includes global ambitions to meet human needs and aspirations. However, these need to be met within planetary boundaries. In nascent world-earth modelling, human well-being as well as global environmental impacts are linked through economic production, which is tracked by GDP. We examined historic developments on 5-year intervals, 1980–2015, between average income and the advancement on indicators of SDGs 1–7. This was done for both seven world regions and the world as a whole. We find uniform patterns of saturation for all regions above an income threshold somewhere around US$15,000 measured in 2011 US$ PPP. At this level, main human needs and capabilities are met. The level is also consistent with studies of life satisfaction and the Easterlin paradox. We observe stark differences with respect to scale: the patterns of the world as an aggregated whole develop differently from all its seven regions, with implications for world-earth model construction – and sustainability transformations. Social media summary Reaching human well-being #SDGs takes GDP levels of $15k. This may help shape transformation to a world that respects #PlanetaryBoundaries.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2059-4798
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1017/sus.2021.26
    Language: English
    Publisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2929769-2
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